Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[interiorgatordecorator]

considering this one has christmas EVE falling on a saturday, is there a way to estimate what an equivalent drop to the first one's 1.8% would be?

For example if this one were to drop 1.8% it would be orders of maginitude more impressive than what the first one did, so what im asking is what would a drop equally as impressive drop as the first one's 1.8% be

Edited November 27, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[stuart360]

Just now, interiorgatordecorator said:

considering this one has christmas falling on a saturday, is there a way to estimate what an equivalent drop to the first one's 1.8% would be?

For example if this one were to drop 1.8% it would be orders of maginitude more impressive than what the first one did, so what im asking is what would an equally as impressive drop as the first one's 1.8%

Well Saturday is obviously a huge part of a normal weekend, so i would say what?, 25-30% drop?.

Although with A2 opening probably twice as high as the orig film atleast, i'd def take a 40% drop with a Christmas Eve Saturday weekend,.

[WittyUsername]

5 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

considering this one has christmas falling on a saturday, is there a way to estimate what an equivalent drop to the first one's 1.8% would be?

For example if this one were to drop 1.8% it would be orders of maginitude more impressive than what the first one did, so what im asking is what would a drop equally as impressive drop as the first one's 1.8% be

Christmas is actually on Sunday. 

[XXR vs XXR]

16 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

considering this one has Christmas Eve falling on a saturday, is there a way to estimate what an equivalent drop to the first one's 1.8% would be?

For example if this one were to drop 1.8% it would be orders of maginitude more impressive than what the first one did, so what im asking is what would a drop equally as impressive drop as the first one's 1.8% be

 

Rogue One dropped 58.7% with the same calendar configuration (and ended up doing 3.43x OW). CE will basically cut Saturday in half and that's the strongest day of any typical weekend. If we cut Avatars 2nd Saturday in half, the weekend drop would have been 21%. Obviously that's not an apples to apples comparison with this calendar configuration. With that being said, I'd be fairly impressed with a sub-50% drop and highly impressed with sub-40%. 

Edited November 27, 2022 by Toruk Makto XXR

[interiorgatordecorator]

4 minutes ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

 

Rogue One dropped 58.7% with the same calendar configuration (and ended up doing 3.43x OW). CE will basically cut Saturday in half and that's the strongest day of any typical weekend. If we cut Avatars 2nd Saturday in half, the weekend drop would have been 21%. Obviously that's not an apples to apples comparison with this calendar configuration. With that being said, I'd be highly impressed with a sub-50% drop.

 

Does having 45% as the "bring out the party hats" number work?

Edited November 27, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

Does having 45% as the "bring out the party hats" number work?

 

Depends on what you're looking to celebrate. Let's use this as a rough estimate for legs....

2nd Weekend Drop vs Legs (xOW)
60% = 3.25x

55% = 3.75x
50% = 4.25x

45% = 4.75x

40% = 5.25x

35% = 5.75x
30% = 6.25x

[interiorgatordecorator]

4 minutes ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

 

Depends on what you're looking to celebrate. Let's use this as a rough estimate for legs....

2nd Weekend Drop vs Legs (xOW)
60% = 3.25x

55% = 3.75x
50% = 4.25x

45% = 4.75x

40% = 5.25x

35% = 5.75x
30% = 6.25x

 

45% works for me, as I expect the OW to end up in the upper range of the projections

Edited November 27, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[Deep Wang]

3 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

Does having 45% as the "bring out the party hats" number work?

 

Sure, but the problem is that nobody has even mentioned the previews yet.  Avatar was an original film and I think it did about $3m in midnights.  A few of the reasons the first had a historic second weekend were -  scant previews, deflated opening weekend, and Christmas Day on second Friday.  That was a perfect storm of things, in addition to insane WOM.  

 

This one will have an opening weekend at least twice as large with previews that are at least 7x bigger, and a deflated second weekend. 

 

Assuming a flawless opening weekend with nothing to hold it back and it's going to be hard to do better than 50% drop imo.

[Elessar]

10 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

Assuming a flawless opening weekend with nothing to hold it back and it's going to be hard to do better than 50% drop imo.

 

Considering Rogue One did -58% i don't think sub 50% is that hard for Avatar, but it also won't be the easest thing in the world. I believe SW has a bigger rush factor to it.

[Deep Wang]

8 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

Considering Rogue One did -58% i don't think sub 50% is that hard for Avatar, but it also won't be the easest thing in the world. I believe SW has a bigger rush factor to it.

 

Oh sure, but Rogue One was a spin off though, so it's not quite apples to apples.

[hw64]

Also agree with the idea that a sub-50% drop isn't anywhere near as hard as some people are suggesting.

 

Christmas Eve on Saturday drops the gross for that day by about half, and if we weight each day as contributing the same amount to the weekend, that's half of a third i.e. a 1/6 = 16.7% drop over what the weekend would otherwise have been. Saturday is actually the biggest day, so let's call that 20%.

 

Putting aside calendar issues, then, if you expect that Avatar 2 would drop 35% in a normal second weekend and make 65% of its first weekend gross, as a result of the calendar configuration its actual second weekend would be 0.65 * 0.8 = 52% of its first weekend gross, i.e. a 48% drop.

 

A natural 35% drop is far from unachievable, especially considering that the previews for Avatar 2 will make up probably around 1/8th or so (12.5%) of the opening weekend gross, which is far less than most blockbusters that we're comparing it to — especially Rogue One, whose $29m previews make up nearly 1/5th of its $155m opening weekend gross. Maverick managed a 28.9% drop off of a slightly lower weekend, and that was coming off of a boosted holiday first weekend and its previews of $19.3m made up 15% of its opening weekend, which is probably higher than the same for Avatar 2.

[JustLurking]

I feel like projecting legs and drops before even so much as a preview is out is kind of silly. Yes, sub-50% is doable, perhaps even better than that, but like, hold your horses lol. This is all still hinging on reception being a smash, which seems probable, but it's definitely not a guarantee.

Edited November 27, 2022 by JustLurking

[XXR vs XXR]

19 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

I feel like projecting legs and drops before even so much as a preview is out is kind of silly. Yes, sub-50% is doable, perhaps even better than that, but like, hold your horses lol. This is all still hinging on reception being a smash, which seems probable, but it's definitely not a guarantee.

 

[IronJimbo]

Damn christmas day ruining the anti-gravity 2 weekend drop. Oh well, 3rd weekend drop will be extra nice because of it.

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Damn christmas day ruining the anti-gravity 2 weekend drop. Oh well, 3rd weekend drop will be extra nice because of it.

 

That'll be an interesting weekend. Rogue One dropped 22% from its 2nd WE. I would be looking for A2 to drop less than 15%. Could it pull of a Sing and go up that weekend?!

[Deep Wang]

13 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Damn christmas day ruining the anti-gravity 2 weekend drop. Oh well, 3rd weekend drop will be extra nice because of it.

 

It's not just Christmas, that's just how things go these days!  Part of the problem is assuming every Cameron movie is going to behave similarly to his previous ones when they are from an entirely different era of box office.  

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Deep Wang said:

 

It's not just Christmas, that's just how things go these days!  Part of the problem is assuming every Cameron movie is going to behave similarly to his previous ones when they are from an entirely different era of box office.  

the real problem is assuming it will behave the same as other films. Won't it be nice to see how Cameron event movie performs in a 2015 and onwards december? Things are going to be so interesting.

[CaptNathanBrittles]

1 hour ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Oh sure, but Rogue One was a spin off though, so it's not quite apples to apples.

 

Also, ROGUE ONE was mostly boring, miserable and forgettable whereas AVATAR 2 will change the face of cinema (apparently).

[XXR vs XXR]

7 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Things are going to be so interesting.

 

Then good thing is that this will be true no matter which way the results go. Fun days ahead for the forum!

[hw64]

10 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

It's not just Christmas, that's just how things go these days!  Part of the problem is assuming every Cameron movie is going to behave similarly to his previous ones when they are from an entirely different era of box office.  

 

It's not like movies were making 20x their opening weekend regularly in 1997, or 10x in 2009 — Titanic and Avatar both had objectively huge legs for really any time period in cinematic history, but moreover their legs were extreme outliers for the time periods in which they were released.

 

I don't think anybody's expecting Avatar 2 to match Titanic or Avatar's legs — things have changed, as was the case between Titanic and Avatar — but there's certainly still plenty of room for big outlier performances in terms of legs as Maverick showed earlier this year. It's rare, but not impossible.

Edited November 27, 2022 by hw64