Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[IronJimbo]

Just now, stuart360 said:

In fact its the naysayers that will be geting all giddy if the film comes in at around 150mil. They will be in the thread and loving it. That will just make it all the mor sweeter as the gross goes on, and it slowly dawns on them that yeah the films legs are going to be insane, and the final gross is going to be huge.

you don't have to wait until this weekend, later today they'll try to spin whatever RT & MT results there are into something really bad. Say it's 85% RT and 76 MT, they'll say the film is just a normal film and isnt groundbreaking like we thought.

 

Probably needs 95% RT and 82 MT for them to not start dooming

[Sheldon Cr]

15 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Remember that the people on here have been dooming about Avatar 2 for years, it's only natural they'll lowball the backended nature of the opening weekend too.

 

People have also been saying things like "a $150m OW film can't have over 5x legs!"

They're trapped in regular film thinking for a James Cameron generational event

What happens if its 150-200M weekend and get 7X+ Legs.. Wonder what folks will say then  Jimbo

 

 

" THIS IS IT JAKE!" " THIS IS YOUR AVATAR!" 

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

So true, total gross is relatively uneffected by the difference between $150m and $180m OW

 

James Cameron said it himself, we have to wait until the 2nd and 3rd week to see if this is going to be the mega blocbuster world dominator that we hoped

I'd actually say 4th weekend, as that will be the first 'normal' weekend it has.

 

Doubters can keep doubting but Camerons films are a marathon, not a sprint, and no one expected the film to be a sprint in terms of OW.

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Sheldon Cr said:

What happens if its 150-200M weekend and get 7X+ Legs.. Wonder what folks will say then  Jimbo

 

 

" THIS IS IT JAKE!" " THIS IS YOUR AVATAR!" 

 

So true, everyone needs to free their minds and themselves up to possbilities they didn't know to be possible. This is the sort of run Avatar 2 will be.

[JustLurking]

3 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

Well it does look like other folks are not going by just presales.. As HR and BOP predicting still up to 180-200M for this Just Lurking brother. So lets not settle for a lowballed but still awesome 150-155M OW Just Yet. WOM is huge it has become the must see Spectacle that takes you into a dream like world. In Fact its an experience not just a movie.

What do you think thats going to do to people who are desperate for Escape or to go back to Pandora.

I can see many a pocket emptying in Avatar 2 Tickets my brother.

 

 

BOP was at 167-192M but that was before the PS slowdown we have seen past few days and that range looked a lot more reasonable. They will probably look to lower that range going into their final OW prediction.

 

I am at 165M but it can definitely land below that as of now. I am not saying that is impossible but the PS push just doesn't seem to be there as of now for an OW in the 180-200M area.

[stuart360]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

you don't have to wait until this weekend, later today they'll try to spin whatever RT & MT results there are into something really bad. Say it's 85% RT and 76 MT, they'll say the film is just a normal film and isnt groundbreaking like we thought.

 

Probably needs 95% RT and 82 MT for them to not start dooming

Well they can say what they want for me as they will just look stupid saying that when the first film'only' had a 82 RT, yet went on to be the biggest movie of all time!.

 

Our time is NOW brother and sisters.

 

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, JustLurking said:

BOP was at 167-192M but that was before the PS slowdown we have seen past few days and that range looked a lot more reasonable. They will probably look to lower that range going into their final OW prediction.

 

I am at 165M but it can definitely land below that as of now. I am not saying that is impossible but the PS push just doesn't seem to be there as of now for an OW in the 180-200M area.

 

and whose to say they didn't expect a presales slow down. If we're going down to $150m like your saying there new prediction would be something like 133-167, i'm not buying that for a second

[Nikostar]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

and whose to say they didn't expect a presales slow down. If we're going down to $150m like your saying there new prediction would be something like 133-167, i'm not buying that for a second

Thier new predictions will be out tomorrow. We will see if it decrease based on sales.

[JustLurking]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

and whose to say they didn't expect a presales slow down. If we're going down to $150m like your saying there new prediction would be something like 133-167, i'm not buying that for a second

I mean, ok then. But don't say I didn't warn you if BOP drops their range to like 140-170 or 145-175 unless review bump and final days come in strong. I still expect this to be plenty leggy but you can only defy PS expectations so much this close to release. If it does, cool, will be another crazy Cameron BO moment I suppose, but it's important to be reasonable.

Edited December 13, 2022 by JustLurking

[IronJimbo]

Just now, stuart360 said:

Well they can say what they want for me as they will just look stupid saying that when the first film'only' had a 82 RT, yet went on to be the biggest movie of all time!.

 

Our time is NOW brother and sisters.

 

EXACTLY

Back to your point about the weekends, I'm not sure people dooming about second weekend are correct.

 

Fri 23rd - normal

Fri 24th - Christmas Eve

Fri 25th - Christmas Day

 

Christmas Eve get's less, but Christmas Day makes more money. I'm not sure it adds up to anything too different to a regular weekend looking at past December movies such as TFA and NWH

[Walt Disney]

The goal for this movie domestically should be a gross that is greater than Spider-man: No Way Home. This movie will not open close to Spider-Man, but this is really a movie that is about the legs. Titanic and Avatar were both leggy movies. I think Avatar 2 will also have a leggy run. Consequently, I am not worried about the OW.

A domestic gross greater than Spider-Man: No Way Home should be the goal.

[IronJimbo]

Just now, JustLurking said:

I mean, ok then. But don't say I didn't warn you if BOP drops their range to like 140-170 unless review bump and final days come in strong. I still expect this to be plenty leggy but you can only defy PS expectations so much this close to release. If it does, cool, will be another crazy Cameron BO moment I suppose, but it's important to be reasonable.

 

I'm sure BOP will be pretty disappointed with last weeks prediction if they end up going down 21% OW due to the PS slowing down a bit.

[IronJimbo]

4 minutes ago, Walt Disney said:

The goal for this movie domestically should be a gross that is greater than Spider-man: No Way Home. This movie will not open close to Spider-Man, but this is really a movie that is about the legs. Titanic and Avatar were both leggy movies. I think Avatar 2 will also have a leggy run. Consequently, I am not worried about the OW.

A domestic gross greater than Spider-Man: No Way Home should be the goal.

I've been saying for the longest time Spider-Man: No Way Home is whats driving the billie DOM. The fact that film made $800m is a christmas miracle. It shows the strength of the Domestic market in December 2021, and expect it to be even stronger in 2022.

Edited December 13, 2022 by IronJimbo

[XXR & Friends]

My guess is the that BOP will put their prediction tomorrow in the $170’s 

[JustLurking]

6 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

I'm sure BOP will be pretty disappointed with last weeks prediction if they end up going down 21% OW due to the PS slowing down a bit.

The thing you see to be missing is that the film's OW was in large part being predicted based on the expectation that it would behave similarly to JW with final days being VERY strong. So when the film kept gaining on JW on every market prior to release, and with very good distribution to boot, it made sense to expect super strong final days too.

 

The problem is that the trend is kind of reversing with JW gaining on this one instead during the weekend, meaning there's a good chance it keeps gaining throughout final days as well unless review bump comes in strong. That doesn't just mean that its past few days have been weak, but also that the assumption that was being made to predict this might be wrong also. A double negative, basically.

 

Mind you I am still expecting strong walk-ups (or at the very least very spread out weekend gross) hence why I am still sitting at 165M in spite of what looks to be coming at 17-18M previews potentially. And you will remember me on being high on A2 from the beginning of times, so I definitely am no doomer. But this is what things are looking like. Hope for a review bump and strong walkups, but expecting an 180-200M range from here just doesn't seem right at all to me.

Edited December 13, 2022 by JustLurking

[Danhjpn]

14 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

BOP was at 167-192M but that was before the PS slowdown we have seen past few days and that range looked a lot more reasonable. They will probably look to lower that range going into their final OW prediction.

 

I am at 165M but it can definitely land below that as of now. I am not saying that is impossible but the PS push just doesn't seem to be there as of now for an OW in the 180-200M area.

155M OW + 5.5x legs

[IronJimbo]

Just now, JustLurking said:

The thing you see to be missing is that the film's OW was in large part being predicted based on the expectation that it would behave similarly to JW with final days being VERY strong. So when the film kept gaining on JW on every market prior to release, and with very good distribution to boot, it made sense to expect super strong final days too.

 

The problem is that the trend is kind of reversing with JW gaining on this one instead during the weekend, meaning there's a good chance it keeps gaining throughout final days as well unless review bump comes in strong. That doesn't just mean that its past few days have been weak, but also that the assumption that was being made to predict this might be wrong also. A double negative, basically.

 

Mind you I am still expecting strong walk-ups (or at the very least very spread out weekend gross) hence why I am still sitting at 165M in spite of what looks to be coming at 17-18M previews potentially. And you will remember me on being high on A2 from the beginning of times, so I definitely am no doomer. But this is what things are looking like.

Good post I understand what you're saying. I don't think you're a doomer by the way.

 

FOR EVERYONE - Review Embargo lifts 12pm EST, in 4hours37mins

[stuart360]

A new fan made trailer, but really cool.

Gets the blood pumping.🤩

 

 

 

[stuart360]

Think i'm going to see the film on friday in 2D. Really wanted my first viewing to be in 3D for the'full experience', but cant get into a 3D showing until next week so i'll probably go 2D.

[Sheldon Cr]

32 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Well they can say what they want for me as they will just look stupid saying that when the first film'only' had a 82 RT, yet went on to be the biggest movie of all time!.

 

Our time is NOW brother and sisters.

 

All pandorians join You brother Stuart.

 

Let's get that1B domestic and 3B+ and then some done!