Top 10 of 2015 predictions

[peludo]

I agree that SW is no where close to other monsters OS like Harry Potter or LOTR. Of course, not even close to Titanic or Avatar. To make a bit lower than 500 OS in 2005 is a good mark, but nothing spectacular.Said this, domestically is another story. Just a few months before Titanic release, Episode IV did 138 million in a re-release, what today means over 240 million. Without 3D. Beyond we are now in other era, where people do not go so usually to cinemas, there has not been another re-release so successful. Not even close. Lion King, Titanic or Jurassic Park. None of them could even smell what SW4 did. I am not saying it will happen again, but let's wait and see.

[The Panda]

I agree that SW is no where close to other monsters OS like Harry Potter or LOTR. Of course, not even close to Titanic or Avatar. To make a bit lower than 500 OS in 2005 is a good mark, but nothing spectacular.Said this, domestically is another story. Just a few months before Titanic release, Episode IV did 138 million in a re-release, what today means over 240 million. Without 3D. Beyond we are now in other era, where people do not go so usually to cinemas, there has not been another re-release so successful. Not even close. Lion King, Titanic or Jurassic Park. None of them could even smell what SW4 did. I am not saying it will happen again, but let's wait and see.

Also, Disney is going to ensure SW grows overseas, it'll beat all of the Potter's WW at least. SW7 is a completely different movie than the prequels and has the potential to fully tap what it's capable of in a fully grown OS market.

[Lordmandeep]

Um 500 million overseas in 2005 with no 3D is easily 50% more now. 

 

 

So imo SW likley wont smash records overseas but should do 700 million I think and with a big domestic haul, it will become one of the biggest hits. 

Edited August 13, 2014 by Lordmandeep

[peludo]

Um 500 million overseas in 2005 with no 3D is easily 50% more now. So imo SW likley wont smash records overseas but should do 700 million I think and with a big domestic haul, it will become one of the biggest hits.

That for sure. For the moment, it is far from TA2 potential, which I think will reach 1 billion OS, but 700-800 range for SW7 is quite reasonable.

[The Panda]

Um 500 million overseas in 2005 with no 3D is easily 50% more now. 

 

 

So imo SW likley wont smash records overseas but should do 700 million I think and with a big domestic haul, it will become one of the biggest hits. 

 

You aren't even taking into consideration that Disney's marketing will lead to the growth of the brand overseas, I think it's inevitable for it to at least take out Potter 7 WW

[dashrendar44]

The phantom menace was also poorly received, you haven't taken into consideration that this is DISNEY (not Fox) releasing a Star fucking Wars movie in December, with a director known for strong numbers. At the very least Star Wars is locked to beat every Potter that's a given. People are really undershooting what Star Wars can do in a fully developed overseas market with Disney and especially if it gets even decent reception.

 

SW won't overtake Titanic nor Avatar because it won't catch them OS no matter how "fully developed" is the OS market, no matter how Disney will push its agressive marketing to shove it down our throats because potential demographics are more limited compared to those two, there are a lot of people that don't give a flying fuck about Star fucking Wars in 2014 and still won't give any by the time december 2015 shows up to bring it into the 2B WW realm. That's all I have to say.

Edited August 13, 2014 by dashrendar44

[James]

You aren't even taking into consideration that Disney's marketing will lead to the growth of the brand overseas, I think it's inevitable for it to at least take out Potter 7 WW

If SW makes around 550M DOM then I think it has a good shot at taking down the last Potter (1,34B). That's giving it 800M OS which is TF/POTC level, the biggest OS franchises atm except for Avengers/Potter. Regarding Disney's marketing, yeah, of course it will matter, but it's nothing comparable to brand recognition itself. Potter/LOTR/TF/POTC all had years of building their audience through beloved movies, books, toys, successful TV shows and A LOT of TV reruns etc. Even with a mighty marketing push getting SW close to those levels will be very very hard, because right now we're not talking just movie lovers, we're talking GA. My dad, who doesn't go to movies, went to the last POTC because he liked the first three when he saw them on TV, where they are showing them a few times a year. The main mistake Lucas or whoever marketed these movies made was to trust that US audience will always be the primary force for all movies, but nowadays OS markets are just massive. Of course non of them are comparable to the US (China aside), but look at all the franchises I mentioned above. The last Potter, TF4, POTC 4 - in all of their cases their OS share of the totall gross was between 71-77%. That's just insane. Comparing it to SW, the biggest OS ration belongs to ROTS with 55%.

 

I believe that the next SW movies have room to improve OS, but getting close to 1B some are predicting or expecting for the first one seems just unresonable.

 

Edit: also, an interesting point to make: I couldn't find data for TPM (although I think the ratio is similar), but for ROTS on it's OW, 48% of it's audience was 25 years or younger. That almost half and no matter how badly received were the prequels it's going to show you that younger audiences played an important part in getting that gross. ROTS was released in 2005 so the 25 and younger were the 80's generation. Now 10 years will have passed when SW 7 hits. The ratio will probably be kinda the same and the 25 years and younger will be the 90's kids a.k.a. my generation. And most of my generation prefers the prequels over the OT simply because they were a thing while we were alive and they look good or at least decent (we proved this is important to us countless times: TF, POTC and the list could go on and on)  Another thing is that from all the people I met and asked of this during my highschool and college time only two have seen the OT. That's certainly not the case in the US, but still, even there the things are probably the same (regardin preferences) and that's because we are young, most of us like what's new and cool most of us don't like watching old movies especially when they don't look good next to the new ones. I made this point to underline two things: First, because of the reasons I presented above you should see why (especially OS) prequals are the thing to compare SW7 to, not the OT. Second, Disney is a family friendly studio and they will try to appeal to young audiences, but bringing  back the original cast of a trilogy most of the young people have never even seen won't bring us in the theatre. Will it have an impact on older audiences, mainly in the US? Of course. But people seem to bet on the fact that just because the original cast is back this is going to destroy most popular brands today.

 

Mind you, I don't say it's impossible. If it's one thing I've learned my quarel with Baumer about this that is to have an open mind.   I just say it's highly unlikely.

Edited August 13, 2014 by James

[The Panda]

SW won't overtake Titanic nor Avatar because it won't catch them OS no matter how "fully developed" is the OS market, no matter how Disney will push its agressive marketing to shove it down our throats because potential demographics are more limited compared to those two, there are a lot of people that don't give a flying fuck about Star fucking Wars in 2014 and still won't give any by the time december 2015 shows up to bring it into the 2B WW realm. That's all I have to say.

I don't think it'll overtake them WW, it's a sequel and those kind of numbers for a sequel no matter the franchise are unprecedented.I do think domestic is easily plausible which is what I was saying earlier.

[The Panda]

My predictions for the notable moviesJanuaryTaken 3Low Range - 65mHigh Range - 150mMy prediction - 85mThe Wedding RingerLow Range - 50mHigh Range - 150mMy Prediction - 110mblackhatLow Range - 45mHigh Range - 120mMy Prediction - 75mAmerican SniperLow Range - 40mHigh Range - 120mMy Prediction - 55mFebruaryJupiter AscendingHigh Range - 185mLow Range - 50mMy Prediction - 115mThe Seventh SonHigh Range - 115mLow Range - 35mMy Prediction - 60mSpongeBob: Sponge Out of WaterHigh Range - 200mLow Range - 75mMy Prediction - 170mFifty Shades of GreyHigh Range - 275mLow Range - 150mMy Prediction - 225mKingsman: The Secret ServiceHigh Range - 75mLow Range - 25mMy Prediction - 40mJane Got a GunHigh Range - 55mLow Range - 15mMy Prediction - 35mHitman: Agent 47High Range - 75mLow Range - 35mMy Prediction - 50mMarchThe Transporter LegacyLow Range - 50mHigh Ranger - 125mMy Prediction - 75mCinderellaLow Range - 175mHigh Range - 250mMy Prediction - 215mIn the Heart of the SeaLow Range - 35mHigh Range - 120mMy Prediction - 60mScouts vs. ZombiesLow Range - 35mHigh Range - 110mMy Prediction - 65mThe Divergent Series: InsurgentLow Range - 115mHigh Range - 210mMy Prediction - 155mGet HardLow Range - 80mHigh Range - 180mMy Prediction - 145mHomeLow Range - 70mHigh Range - 125mMy Prediction - 75mAprilFast and Furious 7Low Range - 250mHigh Range - 350mMy Prediction - 325mPaul Blart: Mall Cop 2Low Range - 45mHigh Range - 140mMy Prediction - 75mChild 44Low Range - 30mHigh Range - 60mMy Prediction - 45mMayThe Avengers: Age of UltronLow Range - 540mHigh Range - 670mMy Prediction - 580mMad Max: Fury RoadLow Range - 35mHigh Range - 75mMy Prediction - 50mPitch Perfect 2Low Range - 50mHigh Range - 210mMy Prediction - 165mTomorrowlandLow Range - 150mHigh Range - 270mMy Prediction - 230mSpyLow Range - 75mHigh Range - 170mMy Prediction - 130mInsidious Chapter 3Low Range - 50mHigh Range - 110mMy Prediction - 65mMonster TrucksLow Range - 15mHigh Range - 70mMy Prediction - 25mJuneB.O.O; Bureau of Otherworldly OperationsLow Range - 75mHigh Range - 150mMy Prediction - 120mSan Andreas 3DLow Range - 50mHigh Range - 85mMy Prediction - 65mJurassic WorldLow Range - 150mHigh Range - 370mMy Prediction - 280mThe Fantastic FourLow Range - 110mHigh Range - 230mMy Prediction - 135mInside OutLow Range - 210mHigh Range - 320mMy Prediction - 275mTed 2Low Range - 150mHigh Range - 270mMy Prediction - 215mJulyTerminator GenisysLow Range - 65mHigh Range - 210mMy Prediction - 105mMagic Mike XXLLow Range - 50mHigh Range - 150mMy Prediction - 130mMinionsLow Range - 260mHigh Range - 400mMy Prediction - 350mAnt-ManLow Range - 150mHigh Range - 300mMy Prediction - 250mPanLow Range - 25mHigh Range - 75mMy Prediction - 50mPixelsLow Range - 60mHigh Range - 150mMy Prediction - 85mPoltergeistLow Range - 45mHigh Range - 120mMy Prediction - 60mTrainwreckLow Range - 30mHigh Range - 120mMy Prediction - 70mPaper TownsLow Range - 65mHigh Range - 150mMy Prediction - 100mAugustAssassin's Creed (probably won't stay)Low Range - 75mHigh Range - 175mMy Prediction - 120mGoosebumpsLow Range - 65mHigh Range - 180mMy Prediction - 150mMan From UNCLELow Range - 40mHigh Range - 75mMy Prediction - 50mSinister 2Low Range - 35mHigh Range - 85mMy Prediction - 70mSeptemberEverestLow Range - 30mHigh Range - 70mMy Prediction - 50mHotel Transylvania 2Low Range - 110mHigh Range - 175nMy Prediction - 125mOctoberFrankensteinLow Range - 45mHigh Range - 70mLondon Has FallenLow Range - 65mHigh Range - 120mMy Prediction - 80mThe Jungle BookLow Range - 125mHigh Range - 240mMy Prediction - 200mCrimson PeakLow Range - 50mHigh Range - 165mMy Prediction - 125mThe Conjuring 2Low Range - 85mHigh Range - 180mMy Prediction - 145mNovemberJames Bond 24Low Range - 225mHigh Range - 315mMy Prediction - 270mThe PeanutsLow Range - 100mHigh Range - 175mMy Prediction - 115mThe Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2Low Range - 415mHigh Range - 525mMy Prediction - 475mThe MartianLow Range - 65mHigh Range - 180mMy Prediction - 115mThe Good DinosaurLow Range - 215mHigh Range - 300mMy Prediction - 250mDecemberStar Wars Episode: VIILow Range - 520mHigh Range - 800mMy Prediction - 715mInfernoLow Range - 55mHigh Range - 115mMy Prediction - 85mKung Fu Panda 3Low Range - 125mHigh Range - 200mMy Prediction - 150mMission Impossible VLow Range - 120mHigh Range - 210mMy Prediction - 145mOverall for the year1.Star Wars: Episode VII - 715m2.The Avengers: Age of Ultron - 580m3.The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 - 475m4.Minions - 350m5.Fast and Furious 7 - 325m6.Jurassic World - 280m7.Inside Out - 275m8.James Bond 27 - 270m9.Ant-Man - 250m10.The Good Dinosaur - 250m11.Tomorrowland - 230m12.Fifty Shades of Grey - 225m13.Cinderella - 215m14.Ted 2 - 215m15.The Jungle Book - 200m16.SpongeBob: Sponge Out of Water - 170m17.Pitch Perfect 2 - 165m18.The Divergent Series: Insurgent - 155m19.Goosebumps - 150m20.Kung Fu Panda 3 - 150m21.Get Hard - 145m22.Mission Impossible V - 145m23.The Conjuring 2 - 145m24.The Fantastic Four - 135m25.Magic Mike XXL - 130m26.Spy - 130m27.Hotel Transylvania 2 - 125m28.Crimson Peak - 125m29.B.O.O; Bureau of Otherworldly Operations - 120m30.Jupiter Ascending - 115m31.The Martian - 115m32.The Peanuts - 115m33.The Wedding Ringer - 110m34.Terminator: Genisys - 105m35.Paper Towns - 100M

[Kvikk Lunsj]

I hope The Peanuts could do more then 115m

[Ethan Hunt]

Panda, you're way to high on Minions.

[The Panda]

Panda, you're way to high on Minions.

No, Minions will have a slight drop from DM2 but not much, the brands just gotten bigger.

[mahnamahna]

My predictions for the notable moviesJanuaryTaken 3Low Range - 65mHigh Range - 150mMy prediction - 85mThe Wedding RingerLow Range - 50mHigh Range - 150mMy Prediction - 110mblackhatLow Range - 45mHigh Range - 120mMy Prediction - 75mAmerican SniperLow Range - 40mHigh Range - 120mMy Prediction - 55mFebruaryJupiter AscendingHigh Range - 185mLow Range - 50mMy Prediction - 115mThe Seventh SonHigh Range - 115mLow Range - 35mMy Prediction - 60mSpongeBob: Sponge Out of WaterHigh Range - 200mLow Range - 75mMy Prediction - 170mFifty Shades of GreyHigh Range - 275mLow Range - 150mMy Prediction - 225mKingsman: The Secret ServiceHigh Range - 75mLow Range - 25mMy Prediction - 40mJane Got a GunHigh Range - 55mLow Range - 15mMy Prediction - 35mHitman: Agent 47High Range - 75mLow Range - 35mMy Prediction - 50mMarchThe Transporter LegacyLow Range - 50mHigh Ranger - 125mMy Prediction - 75mCinderellaLow Range - 175mHigh Range - 250mMy Prediction - 215mIn the Heart of the SeaLow Range - 35mHigh Range - 120mMy Prediction - 60mScouts vs. ZombiesLow Range - 35mHigh Range - 110mMy Prediction - 65mThe Divergent Series: InsurgentLow Range - 115mHigh Range - 210mMy Prediction - 155mGet HardLow Range - 80mHigh Range - 180mMy Prediction - 145mHomeLow Range - 70mHigh Range - 125mMy Prediction - 75mAprilFast and Furious 7Low Range - 250mHigh Range - 350mMy Prediction - 325mPaul Blart: Mall Cop 2Low Range - 45mHigh Range - 140mMy Prediction - 75mChild 44Low Range - 30mHigh Range - 60mMy Prediction - 45mMayThe Avengers: Age of UltronLow Range - 540mHigh Range - 670mMy Prediction - 580mMad Max: Fury RoadLow Range - 35mHigh Range - 75mMy Prediction - 50mPitch Perfect 2Low Range - 50mHigh Range - 210mMy Prediction - 165mTomorrowlandLow Range - 150mHigh Range - 270mMy Prediction - 230mSpyLow Range - 75mHigh Range - 170mMy Prediction - 130mInsidious Chapter 3Low Range - 50mHigh Range - 110mMy Prediction - 65mMonster TrucksLow Range - 15mHigh Range - 70mMy Prediction - 25mJuneB.O.O; Bureau of Otherworldly OperationsLow Range - 75mHigh Range - 150mMy Prediction - 120mSan Andreas 3DLow Range - 50mHigh Range - 85mMy Prediction - 65mJurassic WorldLow Range - 150mHigh Range - 370mMy Prediction - 280mThe Fantastic FourLow Range - 110mHigh Range - 230mMy Prediction - 135mInside OutLow Range - 210mHigh Range - 320mMy Prediction - 275mTed 2Low Range - 150mHigh Range - 270mMy Prediction - 215mJulyTerminator GenisysLow Range - 65mHigh Range - 210mMy Prediction - 105mMagic Mike XXLLow Range - 50mHigh Range - 150mMy Prediction - 130mMinionsLow Range - 260mHigh Range - 400mMy Prediction - 350mAnt-ManLow Range - 150mHigh Range - 300mMy Prediction - 250mPanLow Range - 25mHigh Range - 75mMy Prediction - 50mPixelsLow Range - 60mHigh Range - 150mMy Prediction - 85mPoltergeistLow Range - 45mHigh Range - 120mMy Prediction - 60mTrainwreckLow Range - 30mHigh Range - 120mMy Prediction - 70mPaper TownsLow Range - 65mHigh Range - 150mMy Prediction - 100mAugustAssassin's Creed (probably won't stay)Low Range - 75mHigh Range - 175mMy Prediction - 120mGoosebumpsLow Range - 65mHigh Range - 180mMy Prediction - 150mMan From UNCLELow Range - 40mHigh Range - 75mMy Prediction - 50mSinister 2Low Range - 35mHigh Range - 85mMy Prediction - 70mSeptemberEverestLow Range - 30mHigh Range - 70mMy Prediction - 50mHotel Transylvania 2Low Range - 110mHigh Range - 175nMy Prediction - 125mOctoberFrankensteinLow Range - 45mHigh Range - 70mLondon Has FallenLow Range - 65mHigh Range - 120mMy Prediction - 80mThe Jungle BookLow Range - 125mHigh Range - 240mMy Prediction - 200mCrimson PeakLow Range - 50mHigh Range - 165mMy Prediction - 125mThe Conjuring 2Low Range - 85mHigh Range - 180mMy Prediction - 145mNovemberJames Bond 24Low Range - 225mHigh Range - 315mMy Prediction - 270mThe PeanutsLow Range - 100mHigh Range - 175mMy Prediction - 115mThe Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2Low Range - 415mHigh Range - 525mMy Prediction - 475mThe MartianLow Range - 65mHigh Range - 180mMy Prediction - 115mThe Good DinosaurLow Range - 215mHigh Range - 300mMy Prediction - 250mDecemberStar Wars Episode: VIILow Range - 520mHigh Range - 800mMy Prediction - 715mInfernoLow Range - 55mHigh Range - 115mMy Prediction - 85mKung Fu Panda 3Low Range - 125mHigh Range - 200mMy Prediction - 150mMission Impossible VLow Range - 120mHigh Range - 210mMy Prediction - 145mOverall for the year1.Star Wars: Episode VII - 715m2.The Avengers: Age of Ultron - 580m3.The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 - 475m4.Minions - 350m5.Fast and Furious 7 - 325m6.Jurassic World - 280m7.Inside Out - 275m8.James Bond 27 - 270m9.Ant-Man - 250m10.The Good Dinosaur - 250m11.Tomorrowland - 230m12.Fifty Shades of Grey - 225m13.Cinderella - 215m14.Ted 2 - 215m15.The Jungle Book - 200m16.SpongeBob: Sponge Out of Water - 170m17.Pitch Perfect 2 - 165m18.The Divergent Series: Insurgent - 155m19.Goosebumps - 150m20.Kung Fu Panda 3 - 150m21.Get Hard - 145m22.Mission Impossible V - 145m23.The Conjuring 2 - 145m24.The Fantastic Four - 135m25.Magic Mike XXL - 130m26.Spy - 130m27.Hotel Transylvania 2 - 125m28.Crimson Peak - 125m29.B.O.O; Bureau of Otherworldly Operations - 120m30.Jupiter Ascending - 115m31.The Martian - 115m32.The Peanuts - 115m33.The Wedding Ringer - 110m34.Terminator: Genisys - 105m35.Paper Towns - 100M

Throw in 2-5 random $100 million grossers that we didn't see coming and that's a pretty reasonable prediction! Somehow I see Terminator above JA, and Crimson Peak seems like a long shot considering Conjuring 2 is the next week. Peanuts is probably going to be slightly stronger than that (140-160 million is my guess) due to nostalgia and the fact that Bond and Hunger Games aren't targeting its demo. 

 

Trainwreck is probably going to be the comedy breakout of 2015, though. Ted 2 and Pitch Perfect 2 are the high-profile sequels, but Trainwreck will be the surprise hit. Also think Straight Outta Compton could do it since it's in the 2nd week of August spot that Help and Butler did well in. Get on Up really was just a fluke IMO. 

[water]

You know you don't have to predict MJII, right? Broke out without the Marvel name I don't think so. Nothing extra? Have you been following the movie at all? Check the AOU thread first post (3 of them).

 

Bet: O/U 530M and over 210M OW?

 

 

[*]mj2 is a 2015 movie so you kind of have to predict it for this thread...

[*]gotg would easily have made the exact same amount of money made by any other studio, if it was the exact same movie with the exact same marketing

[*]yes there is nothing extra in aou.. no new characters that had their own movies in phase 2 therefore it has nothing special since the team-up novelty already happened with the first avengers.

[*]yes i have that's where i'm getting my opinions

[*]what am i supposed to be seeing in the first post? it just confirms what i said that there are no new characters with their own movies EDIT oh you mean clubs sure thing

obviously aou will still be huge including some bump from being a team-up but that being said 530m is still huge

 

why in the world would i bet o/u my prediction?? that's what i think it will do, not over, not under, that. obviously it's a rounded prediction so it could be over or under a bit but i think it will be around there. under 210m ow.

 

also tpm was the most hyped movie ever and will never have that title taken away because today's market is so crowded. but it "only" sold 80-85m tickets, which is absolutely out of the question for episode 7 unless it breaks out on its own, not because of the star wars name

Edited August 13, 2014 by water

[The Futurist]

Titanic is easily the biggest BO monster ever. To make that kind of money in 1997, especially OS is just insane. Regarding DOM, Titanic adjusted (1,1B) is No. 5 all time after Gone with the Wind (1,6B), Star Wars (1,4B), The Sound of Music (1,16B) and E.T. (1,15B). 

 

But all those movies got re released anyway, Gone with the Wind stayed in theaters forever and I don't know where guru got the numbers for it probably the same for The SOund of Music.

Do the Titanic number takes into account the 3d re release ?

Do the Star Wars number take into account the 1997 re release ?

[mahnamahna]

But all those movies got re released anyway, Gone with the Wind stayed in theaters forever and I don't know where guru got the numbers for it probably the same for The SOund of Music.

Do the Titanic number takes into account the 3d re release ?

Do the Star Wars number take into account the 1997 re release ?

It does take the 3D re-release of Titanic into account, just like Star Wars' 1997 rerelease is taken into account.

 

Titanic isn't the highest selling of all time even with the re-release. It's fifth. Nothing wrong with that, but it's the truth. 

Edited August 13, 2014 by mahnamahna

[The Panda]

But all those movies got re released anyway, Gone with the Wind stayed in theaters forever and I don't know where guru got the numbers for it probably the same for The SOund of Music.Do the Titanic number takes into account the 3d re release ?Do the Star Wars number take into account the 1997 re release ?

Star Wars I don't think so, the rest yes. (I remember seeing a separate movie for its re-release given it made over 200m)Actually, Star Wars without the re release adjusts to 1.16b which is still over Titanic adjusted even with the re-release.Star Wars is undoubtedly bigger than Titanic domestically. Edited August 13, 2014 by The Panda

[James]

But all those movies got re released anyway, Gone with the Wind stayed in theaters forever and I don't know where guru got the numbers for it probably the same for The SOund of Music.

Do the Titanic number takes into account the 3d re release ?

Do the Star Wars number take into account the 1997 re release ?

The list is from Box Office Mojo and all of them except for 'The Sound of Music' had mltiple releases and that's taken into account.

 

http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm

[The Futurist]

Gone is the wind number is still iffy to me.

[dashrendar44]

Star Wars I don't think so, the rest yes. (I remember seeing a separate movie for its re-release given it made over 200m)Actually, Star Wars without the re release adjusts to 1.16b which is still over Titanic adjusted even with the re-release.Star Wars is undoubtedly bigger than Titanic domestically.

 

Star Wars has been re-released 4 times after 1977 (initial run), in 1978, 1981, 1982 and 1997. Titanic, one time. It's important to mention and notice that difference.