Weekend Est: 22JUMP 60.0M| HTTYD2 50.0M|Male 19.0M|EOT 16.1M|Fault 15.7M|DOFP 9.5M

[kayumanggi]

Maybe 15-20M more than HTTYD2 will.

 

It was originally scheduled on MALEFICENT's date. MALEFICENT was supposed to be in July, right?

[The Panda]

Anyone think the lackluster summer might be because of how harsh the winter was? People were so tired of being cooped up inside (that could have boosted winter and spring box office) that once it's warm and sunny they want to be outside. That plus unappealing movies to the GA might be why.

[grim22]

The thing is, the entire summer underperforming makes no sense. A lot of movies in a row underperforming eventually has to lead to a huge breakout at some point in the summer. The only summer movies which look like they could break out big now are TF4 and Dawn of planet of the apes. Of them, I am doubtful if Dawn will actually break out.

 

Looks like the whole summer will be populated with mid-level performers with no true breakout hit i.e. to the tune of 270M+. Hell, I don't see a 200M grosser after Transformers to be honest. Dawn may benefit from an empty July, but then summer weekdays start coming to a close.

Edited June 15, 2014 by grim22

[JohnnY]

So, this is how I calculated my Dragon prediction. Does this make any sense? I don't know, but in my mind it did.

 

Despicable me DVD + Blu-ray sales 13.959.999 units

HTTYD DVD + Blu-ray sales 7.938.846 units (56.8% of what DM sold)

 

So I thought like... HTTYD2 will increase something around 56.8% of what DM2 increased.

DM2 increased 46.3%, so Dragon would increase 26.3%, grossing 275m in total. With a 53m OW, I don't think it's impossible to reach this number.

 

Of course, I imagined this would be the bare minimum it would make. I believed that the 2nd movie would have better WOM than DM2 and would manage to increase a bit more (~300m).

[kayumanggi]

Is it possible Fox became complacent in marketing HTTYD ll because they thought since it's the only BIG animated movie this summer and that the first one had great wom, they felt that there really was no need to market the movie big time.

 

Summer 2014 is reminding me of summer 2011.

[tupek]

Is it disappointing yes, but to throw out words like catastrophic at this stage when it still has a long way to go in its run is ridiculous. Did it even open in any major international markets? People need to relax.

Of course this flick has the rest of its run left. It could hold well. I talking 'bout the current estimated numbers. Which are absolutely pathethic, catastrophic....For its overseas performance, from what I know, it flopped in Lebanon and portugal, but is doing fine numbers in Australia and Russia, mainly.

[kayumanggi]

Box Office Beastie! In two days GODZILLA has grossed a massive $25.8M in China.

— Exhibitor Relations (@ERCboxoffice)

June 15, 2014

[The Panda]

The thing is, the entire summer underperforming makes no sense. A lot of movies in a row underperforming eventually has to lead to a huge breakout at some point in the summer. The only summer movies which look like they could break out big now are TF4 and Dawn of planet of the apes. Of them, I am doubtful if Dawn will actually break out.Looks like the whole summer will be populated with mid-level performers with no true breakout hit i.e. to the tune of 270M+. Hell, I don't see a 200M grosser after Transformers to be honest. Dawn may benefit from an empty July, but then summer weekdays start coming to a close.

I think Guardians could breakout fairly easily, and Dawn should gross 200m+ (should, this year has been ridiculous so far in terms of underperformers)

[MrPink]

The thing is, the entire summer underperforming makes no sense. A lot of movies in a row underperforming eventually has to lead to a huge breakout at some point in the summer. The only summer movies which look like they could break out big now are TF4 and Dawn of planet of the apes. Of them, I am doubtful if Dawn will actually break out.

 

Looks like the whole summer will be populated with mid-level performers with no true breakout hit i.e. to the tune of 270M+. Hell, I don't see a 200M grosser after Transformers to be honest. Dawn may benefit from an empty July, but then summer weekdays start coming to a close.

 

What if it's Guardians?

[a2k]

So I thought like... HTTYD2 will increase something around 56.8% of what DM2 increased.

DM2 increased 46.3%, so Dragon would increase 26.3%, grossing 275m in total. With a 53m OW, I don't think it's impossible to reach this number.

 

 

That's a multiplier of 5.19. Higher than HTTYD1's 4.98

The highest multiplier for a June animation is Ratatouille's 4.39. KFP was 4+. After that TS3's 3.76 is the max.

Not that this one can't touch 4x, but 5x is out of question.

Edited June 15, 2014 by a2k

[grim22]

I think Guardians could breakout fairly easily, and Dawn should gross 200m+ (should, this year has been ridiculous so far in terms of underperformers)

 

Guardians needs a strong marketing push at the end to breakout beyond the geek audience. TFIOS is showing us what happens when you get the fanbase mobilized but not reach anyone outside the fanbase. TFIOS actually had over 20M trailer views for its first trailer, and every clip got around 5-10M views. Even if every single view had showed up for OW, it would have had over 50M OW, especially after that really big OD.

 

 

What if it's Guardians?

 

What if it's TMNT? I am actually hoping TMNT does well. I don't even know why. Just excited to see a TMNT movie in live-action after so long.

Edited June 15, 2014 by grim22

[The Panda]

Is it possible Fox became complacent in marketing HTTYD ll because they thought since it's the only BIG animated movie this summer and that the first one had great wom, they felt that there really was no need to market the movie big time.Summer 2014 is reminding me of summer 2011.

Summer 2011 still had Dark of the Moon and Potter, plus everything performed decently. 2014 is currently the worst summer of the 21st century.

[kayumanggi]

Summer 2011 still had Dark of the Moon and Potter, plus everything performed decently. 2014 is currently the worst summer of the 21st century.

 

Which is a shame because it has some amazing films. I don't know why they have not clicked with the GA audience. Or could there be other reasons? How's the economy now?

[Blankments]

Instead of a preview for next week, I instead give you an analysis of this week.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIcwarogBNw&feature=youtu.be

[The Panda]

Guardians needs a strong marketing push at the end to breakout beyond the geek audience. TFIOS is showing us what happens when you get the fanbase mobilized but not reach anyone outside the fanbase. TFIOS actually had over 20M trailer views for its first trailer, and every clip got around 5-10M views. Even if every single view had showed up for OW, it would have had over 50M OW, especially after that really big OD.What if it's TMNT? I am actually hoping TMNT does well. I don't even know why. Just excited to see a TMNT movie in live-action after so long.

Guardians has received a good marketing campaign so far, it has a mass appeal, and after Cap 2 and Mal performed so strong can we really doubt Disney? They are the only studio this year really producing movies that perform normally.

[Mojoguy]

I heard someone say "Dragon flopped because Godzilla flopped. People don't want to see reptiles". hmmm.

[JohnnY]

That's a multiplier of 5.19. Higher than HTTYD1's 4.98

The highest multiplier for a June animation is Ratatouille's 4.39. KFP was 4+. After that TS3's 3.76 is the max.

Not that this one can't touch 4x, but 5x is out of question.

 

But Ratatouille had to share audience with Simpsons and KFP with Wall-E.

I'm counting on the fact that Planes won't hurt HTTYD. But I don't know, it will all depend on the WOM.

[BobbyJohn]

Instead of a preview for next week, I instead give you an analysis of this week.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIcwarogBNw&feature=youtu.be

lmao as I was watching I knew you would hit that "in the paaaaaaast" note Still you didn't pull Britney and lipsynch so points for effort

[bballman24]

I heard someone say "Dragon flopped because Godzilla flopped. People don't want to see reptiles". hmmm.

Prob on acid

[Mojoguy]

Summer 2011 still had Dark of the Moon and Potter, plus everything performed decently. 2014 is currently the worst summer of the 21st century.

Yikes!