Weekend Numbers: GOTG - 94M (PG 180) [25.5M Sunday (Spatula) Cancel the Godzilla legs!]

[Blackout]

Awesome.

[darkelf]

Cancel the Godzilla legs.

[Wrath]

Hope is not reality. Comic book(and any fan based) films do not usually have much better than 2.5 multis. It's just the way it is.

 

This really isn't true.  In fact, most of them have done quite a bit better.  Of the successful super-hero comic book adaptions of since 2000 (so, excluding the non-super hero adaptations like MiB (MiB came out *17* years ago?  I suddenly feel old) and 300, the Green Lantern-like flops (I set the floor at $150M DOM), and the older stuff that operated in a different environment), their multiples have gone:

 

SM2 4.25

ASM 4.22

SM 3.51

DK 3.39

IM 3.21

TA 3.01

DKR 2.78

FF 2.77

Thor 2.74

CATWS 2.73

CATFA 2.72

DoFP 2.55

MoS 2.51

X-United 2.5

IM2 2.44

TDW 2.40

IM3 2.35

X-LS 2.27

SM3 2.22

The Wolverine 2.12

 

Averaging out at 2.83, with a median of 2.72.

 

Obviously there are some some movies in there that are better or worse as comps for various reasons, but even if you simply don't count ASM and SM2, it only bumps the average mult down to 2.68 with a median of 2.64 (halfway between CATFA and DoFP).

 

Also, its pretty easy to notice the dual trends of the ones at the bottom being (generally speaking) relatively poorly reviewed sequels and the ones at the top being... lets go with "non-sequels" that received more positive reviews.  Neither of those trends hold up 100%, but they're clear enough that its hard to overlook them.  

 

So, its certainly possible GotG ends up with a multiple of 2.4 for whatever reason, but as a very strongly reviewed non-sequel, a 2.8 (or higher) multiple seems a lot more likely.

Edited August 4, 2014 by Wrath

[spatulashack]

Someone should update that thread title or I'll have egg on my face for the rest of the day.  

[Clef Ment]

I take that back.  Guardians came in at 25.5.  Looks like Disney's estimated 18% drop was accurate after all.  

 

Nice.

[Fake]

Awesome! 250m pretty much happening now.

[Wrath]

Ooh, thanks, Spatula, that's a nice update for Sunday.  

 

So, if we go with a 2.8 multiple off a $95M OW, we're looking at 266M DOM.  Wow.  285m with a 3.0 mutliple.

 

Edit - And if it does indeed come in at, say, 270m, all it needs to do is open properly in China and then just do tolerably OS and it'll hit $700m WW.

Edited August 4, 2014 by Wrath

[Superdeluxe]

So what are the chances that actuals will increase?

[Wrath]

Cancel the Godzilla legs.

 

Awww, but I'm hungry.  How about with a nice honey mustard sauce?

[Clef Ment]

Ooh, thanks, Spatula, that's a nice update for Sunday.  

 

So, if we go with a 2.8 multiple off a $95M OW, we're looking at 266M DOM.  Wow.  285m with a 3.0 mutliple.

 

Edit - And if it does indeed come in at, say, 270m, all it needs to do is open properly in China and then just do tolerably OS and it'll hit $700m WW.

 

We need to be careful with OS for GotG.

 

I think 600M worldwide would be nice.

[Ezen Baklattan]

Someone should update that thread title or I'll have egg on my face for the rest of the day.  

*virtual hug*

[eXtacy]

I take that back.  Guardians came in at 25.5.  Looks like Disney's estimated 18% drop was accurate after all.  

 

This weekend has really badly played with my emotions!

[TalismanRing]

Ooh, thanks, Spatula, that's a nice update for Sunday.  

 

So, if we go with a 2.8 multiple off a $95M OW, we're looking at 266M DOM.  Wow.  285m with a 3.0 mutliple.

 

Edit - And if it does indeed come in at, say, 270m, all it needs to do is open properly in China and then just do tolerably OS and it'll hit $700m WW.

 

I think $430m O/S would be considered more than "tolerable" and right now it's opening under TDW by 30-60% in every major territory except RUS (where TDW opened on half screens then expanded the 2nd w/e) which did $438m O/S.  It will probably have better legs but it could have good legs and still wind up at $350m O/S which would still be great.

Edited August 4, 2014 by TalismanRing

[Mojoguy]

Someone should update that thread title or I'll have egg on my face for the rest of the day.  

"Not -18% drop" is the newest "Not a Record".

[CJohn]

Title edited Spatula Thanks for the updates. 

[darkelf]

Ha! I got my post in the title. Mission accomplished

[baumer]

I take that back.  Guardians came in at 25.5.  Looks like Disney's estimated 18% drop was accurate after all.  

 

I'm really shocked at this.  That drop really seems low.

[eXtacy]

I'm really shocked at this.  That drop really seems low.

 

Word of mouth is strong

Edited August 4, 2014 by eXtacy

[baumer]

Word of mouth is strong

 

That's not the point.  Look at the drops on the same day last year:

 

 

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2013-08-04&track=despicableme2.htm

[JohnnyGossamer]

If Baumer's right, it's looking at 45% to 55% drop today. So... Even should it dip over 50%, it's still looking at a $12.5M Monday. Aside from Memorial Day, I think that's the top Monday of the year.