Weekend Estimates: GotG 17.6m | TMNT 16.8m | If I Stay 16.4m | WGST 9.0m | Sin City 6.5m

[Johnny Wiseau]

all the new openers apparently underperformed..even If I Stay will open below expectations..

[JJ-8]

first post updated  

 

just wow @ GOTG... total > 290m is looking good now.  We may get finally a 300m grosser from this summer  can Guardian's make it to the top all time spot for august releases  (already in 2nd ... only Sixth Sense to go @ 293m )

 

As for SC 2..... lol..... is that number getting worse for it ?  falling short of 10m for the weekend now ?

[Caladbolg]

$17m for Guardians would be great. 32% drop. With Labor Day Weekend coming up, should have another great hold.

[MovieMan89]

Sin City possibly heading for the top 50 in worst saturated OWs ever.

[Sal]

Not that I'm complaining about the idea of GotG coming out on top this weekend... but where is this prediction coming from?  IIS had higher Friday numbers... do they really think it's that front loaded and will drop so much or is there something else I'm missing?

 

Also... just wow.  I expected SC2 to tank, but those numbers are just sad.

Edited August 23, 2014 by Sal

[wileECoyote]

1). Guardians of the Galaxy (DIS), 3,371 theaters (-326) / $4.7M to $4.9M Fri. / 3-day cume: $17.2M to $17.6M / Total cume: $252M / Wk 417.6 is awfully close to a less than 30% drop. Now if that happened, 300 is going to look very doable.

[Sal]

1). Guardians of the Galaxy (DIS), 3,371 theaters (-326) / $4.7M to $4.9M Fri. / 3-day cume: $17.2M to $17.6M / Total cume: $252M / Wk 417.6 is awfully close to a less than 30% drop. Now if that happened, 300 is going to look very doable.

 

It'd be nice to see something hit 300m domestically.  I expect the next Hunger Games will and possibly The Hobbit 3 or Interstellar, but realistically unless something completely shocking happens we're looking at less than five films this year that can even potentially pass that mark... And that's assuming GotG doesn't top out between 280-290 or get its legs cut out from under it by Disney pulling it early.

 

Edit: The Hobbit 3, even.  Surprised I got that number wrong but maybe it was because I found #2 so underwhelming.

Edited August 23, 2014 by Sal

[Johnny Wiseau]

this huge drop Sin City 2 suffered from might be an indication that Dumb & Dumber 2 might..just might suffer the same fate 

[Ent]

Not that I'm complaining about the idea of GotG coming out on top this weekend... but where is this prediction coming from?  IIS had higher Friday numbers... do they really think it's that front loaded and will drop so much or is there something else I'm missing?

 

Also... just wow.  I expected SC2 to tank, but those numbers are just sad.

YA movies tend to be more frontloaded than Marvel's ones that tend to increase a lot on saturday.

[Sal]

this huge drop Sin City 2 suffered from might be an indication that Dumb & Dumber 2 might..just might suffer the same fate 

 

Yeah, it's possible but it may not suffer the same fate considering D&D2 is a fairly standard lowbrow comedy and SC2 released with a glut of comic films preceding it.  I personally wouldn't waste money on D&D2, but I'm guessing it's not trying to be particularly deep.

[23IsEverywhere]

Not that I'm complaining about the idea of GotG coming out on top this weekend... but where is this prediction coming from?  IIS had higher Friday numbers... do they really think it's that front loaded and will drop so much or is there something else I'm missing? Also... just wow.  I expected SC2 to tank, but those numbers are just sad.

The most comparable movie to IIS this year was FioS. That film made 26M Friday and had a 48M OW. I don't think IIS will be as front loaded, but I still can't see more than a 2.5 internal multiplier.

[pepsa]

And they didn't need to have a shitty plot with Iron Man joining the Guardians of the Galaxy to do it!

 

No, with that plot it would be almost 400M XD 

[Johnny Wiseau]

The most comparable movie to IIS this year wasFioS. That film made 26M Friday and had a 48M OW. I don't think IIS will be as front loaded, but I still can't see more than a 2.5 internal multiplier.

so IIS 35-40 mil total?

 

that's not good

Edited August 23, 2014 by Johnny Wiseau

[pepsa]

If GOTG hits 295m, watch Disney not give a shit and not push it to 300m. Just look at how they are dealing with TWS and the 260m milestone.

 

Disney only cares about their darling animated movies hitting certain milestones these days.

 

Maybe the don't want to pay 10M more to get if from 295 to 300..

[Sal]

The most comparable movie to IIS this year wasFioS. That film made 26M Friday and had a 48M OW. I don't think IIS will be as front loaded, but I still can't see more than a 2.5 internal multiplier.

 

True.  If I recall right they were also mentioning a heavy teen girls/young women audience and that does seem to favour Friday evenings, at least if they're hoping for them to turn out in groups...

[Sal]

Maybe the don't want to pay 10M more to get if from 295 to 300..

 

Yeah... At that point, wouldn't they stand to make more by releasing it on Blu Ray and DVD?  Not that they aren't going to be making bank on those dancing Groot toys once they hit the market anyway.

[wileECoyote]

Not that I'm complaining about the idea of GotG coming out on top this weekend... but where is this prediction coming from? IIS had higher Friday numbers... do they really think it's that front loaded and will drop so much or is there something else I'm missing?Also... just wow. I expected SC2 to tank, but those numbers are just sad.

It's still preliminary numbers but GotG will likely increase 50+% on Saturday. So it could do 7.1+. IIS, excluding Thursday midnight is looking like 5.2-5.6 Friday. It could increase on Saturday but it isn't likely to be by much. In fact its going to likely decrease since these movies are usually frontloaded.

[Sal]

It's still preliminary numbers but GotG will likely increase 50+% on Saturday. So it could do 7.1+. IIS, excluding Thursday midnight is looking like 5.2-5.6 Friday. It could increase on Saturday but it isn't likely to be by much. In fact its going to likely decrease since these movies are usually frontloaded.

 

Thanks everyone for the reasoning and information.  I'm not very versed in movies like IIS so I'm not confident in making predictions for them.  This is very educational though!

[wileECoyote]

It'd be nice to see something hit 300m domestically. I expect the next Hunger Games will and possibly The Hobbit 2 or Interstellar, but realistically unless something completely shocking happens we're looking at less than five films this year that can even potentially pass that mark... And that's assuming GotG doesn't top out between 280-290 or get its legs cut out from under it by Disney pulling it early.

If it's really close to 300 I'm willing to bet they'll push it over. Some were hoping that they'd push CATWS to 260 but 260 really isn't a milestone. It just looks better than 259

[pepsa]

If it's really close to 300 I'm willing to bet they'll push it over. Some were hoping that they'd push CATWS to 260 but 260 really isn't a milestone. It just looks better than 259

 

I think 259M is kind of original, so actualy a better number than 260 XD