Weekend Prediction thread 5/3-5/5 Play the Derby

[DAJK]

• 50 Shades of Grey:: $178 million/$206 million
• SpongeBob 2: $40.5 million/$51 million ($115 million)
• Kingsman: $33 million/$38.5 million
• American Sniper: $22 million/$26.5 million ($314 million)
• Jupiter Ascending: $11 million/$13 million ($37 million)

That top 5 for the 4 day lol... or even 3 day. My crazy 2002-2004 levels of attendance projection.

Woah at that Fifty Shades #!!!!

Remember when FSOG was opening against GOTG!! That would have been a crazy weekend, with something surely beating Day after Tomorrow's record!!

[Maxmoser3]

• 50 Shades of Grey:: $178 million/$206 million
• SpongeBob 2: $40.5 million/$51 million ($115 million)
• Kingsman: $33 million/$38.5 million
• American Sniper: $22 million/$26.5 million ($314 million)
• Jupiter Ascending: $11 million/$13 million ($37 million)

That top 5 for the 4 day lol... or even 3 day. My crazy 2002-2004 levels of attendance projection.

if this happens this will be the biggest president's day weekend since 2010

[Mojoguy]

Early Predictions (4-day weekend):

 

http://pro.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2015-02-weekend-forecast-fifty-shades-of-grey-kingsman-the-secret-service

 

1) Fifty Shades of Grey, $95 mil
2) SpongeBob 2, $45 mil
3) Kingsman, $35 mil
4) American Sniper, $25 mil
5) Jupiter Ascending, $11 mil
6) Paddington, $6 mil
7) The Wedding Ringer, $5.3 mil
8) The Imitation Game, $5.0 mil
9) Seventh Son, $4.5 mil
10) Black or White, $4.0 mil

[mahnamahna]

if this happens this will be the biggest president's day weekend since 2010

It would be the biggest President's Day weekend ever... adjusted for inflation or not. $360 million for the 4-day - just an insane number lol. 

 

Easily would sell more tickets than any other February weekend ever has... and could set 2015 on pace for 2002-2004 levels of attendance. 

[Maxmoser3]

It would be the biggest President's Day weekend ever... adjusted for inflation or not. $360 million for the 4-day - just an insane number lol.

Easily would sell more tickets than any other February weekend ever has... and could set 2015 on pace for 2002-2004 levels of attendance.

if so next weekend could maybe be a brighter weekend but I still expect Hot Tub Machine 2 under 10 million OW though

[mahnamahna]

if so next weekend could maybe be a brighter weekend but I still expect Hot Tub Machine 2 under 10 million OW though

If those numbers held, next weekend would look like:

1. 50 Shades of Grey: $46 million ($280 million) 
2. SpongeBob 2: $25 million ($145 million) 
3. Kingsman: $19.5 million ($65 million) 
4. American Sniper: $16 million ($330 million) 
5. McFarland USA: $12.5 million 
6. Hot Tub Time Machine 2: $6.5 million 
7. Jupiter Ascending: $5 million ($43 million) 

Edited February 12, 2015 by mahnamahna

[Maxmoser3]

If those numbers held, next weekend would look like:

• 50 Shades of Grey: $46 million ($280 million)
• SpongeBob 2: $25 million ($145 million)
• Kingsman: $19.5 million ($65 million)
• American Sniper: $16 million ($330 million)
• McFarland USA: $12.5 million
• Hot Tub Time Machine 2: $6.5 million
• Jupiter Ascending: $5 million ($43 million)

that would be another impressive weekend Edited February 12, 2015 by Maxmoser3

[Frozen]

Mojo did a 3 day prediction only:

1. Fifty Shades of Grey - $92 million ($101 million four-day)

2. SpongeBob - $33 million (-41%)

3. Kingsman - $28 million ($32.5 million four-day)

4. American Sniper - $16.3 million (-30%)

[mahnamahna]

that would be another impressive weekend

1. 50 Shades of Grey: $46 million ($280 million) 
2. SpongeBob 2: $25 million ($145 million) 
3. Kingsman: $19.5 million ($65 million) 
4. American Sniper: $16 million ($330 million) 
5. McFarland USA: $12.5 million 
6. Hot Tub Time Machine 2: $6.5 million 
7. Jupiter Ascending: $5 million ($43 million) 
8. Paddington: $4 million ($69 million) 
9. The Imitation Game: $4 million ($86 million) 
10. The Wedding Ringer: $3 million ($65 million) 

Feb 27-Mar 1

1. Focus: $26.5 million 
2. 50 Shades of Grey: $20 million ($311 million)
3. SpongeBob 2: $18.5 million ($168 million)
4. American Sniper: $12 million ($346 million) 
5. Kingsman: $11 million ($83 million)
6. McFarland, USA: $9 million ($25 million)
7. Jupiter Ascending: $3 million ($47 million) 
8. Hot Tub Time Machine 2: $3 million ($11 million) 
9. Paddington: $3 million ($72 million) 
10. The Imitation Game: $3 million ($90 million) 

Mar 6-8

1. Chappie: $22 million
2. Unfinished Business: $17 million 
3. SpongeBob 2: $14 million ($186 million) 
4. Focus: $12 million ($45 million)
5. 50 Shades of Grey: $11 million ($328 million)
6. American Sniper: $8 million ($359 million) 
7. McFarland, USA: $7.5 million ($36 million) 
8. Kingsman: $6 million ($93 million) 
9. Paddington: $2.5 million ($75 million)
10. The Imitation Game: $2 million ($93 million) 

Mar 13-15

1. Cinderella: $90.5 million 
2. Run All Night: $16 million 
3. Unfinished Business: $10.5 million ($34 million) 
4. Chappie: $10 million ($38 million) 
5. SpongeBob 2: $8 million ($197 million) 
6. Focus: $7.5 million ($57 million) 
7. 50 Shades of Grey: $6.5 million ($339 million) 
8. McFarland, USA: $6 million ($44 million)
9. American Sniper: $5.5 million ($368 million)
10. Kingsman: $3.5 million ($99 million)

Mar 20-22

1. Insurgent: $63 million 
2. Cinderella: $52.5 million ($168 million) 
3. Run All Night: $10 million ($32 million) 
4. Unfinished Business: $8 million ($48 million) 
5. Do You Believe?: $7.5 million 
6. SpongeBob 2: $6 million ($206 million) 
7. Chappie: $5 million ($47 million)
8. The Gunman: $4.5 million 
9. Focus: $4 million ($64 million) 
10. 50 Shades of Grey: $3.5 million ($345 million)

Mar 27-29

1. Get Hard: $53 million 
2. Insurgent: $29 million ($113 million) 
3. Cinderella: $27 million ($213 million) 
4. Home: $13 million 
5. Do You Believe?: $7 million ($18 million) 
6. Run All Night: $6 million ($42 million) 
7. Unfinished Business: $3.5 million ($54 million) 
8. SpongeBob 2: $3 million ($211 million)
9. Chappie: $3 million ($53 million)
10. The Gunman: $2.5 million ($9 million) 

[CaptainJackSparrow]

Only 13 million for Home????

[Asyulus]

95M OW for 50 Shades

[Impact]

The fact that Shades could open that high......ugh....

 

Anyway-maybe Sniper or SpongeBob 2 will return next week or even Kingsman will jump to number one!

[CelestialFairyIX]

This weekend:

 

1. Fifty Shades of Grey, $88 - 95 million 

2. Kingsman, $27 - 32 million

3. Spongebob 2, $28 - 30 million

4. American Sniper, $21 million or higher 

5. Jupiter Ascending, $11 million or lower

 

Next weekend: 

 

 

1. Fifty Shades of Grey, $48.4 - 52.2 million 

2. Spongebob 2, $25 million

3. Kingsman, $17 - 20 million

4. McFarland USA, $17 - 19 million 

5. American Sniper, $14 - 16 million 

Edited February 13, 2015 by CelestialFairyIX

[CelestialFairyIX]

At this pace, I think it's immensely likely American Sniper will become the No. 1 film of 2014 unless other factors unbeknownst to us currently hinder its process.  Spongebob is another candidate for No. 4 highest grossing animated film of the year, finishing around $200+ million, behind Disney/Pixar's The Good Dinosaur and Inside Out, and Minions.  This could also mark the first year in years that over three animated films are in the Top 10: Minions around $350 million, Inside Out around $325 million, The Good Dinosaur around $245 - 265 million, and finally, Spongebob 2 at around $211 - 214 million (this probably won't enter the Top 10, around 10 - 15% chance as competition this year is HELLA TOUGH)!   

[Asyulus]

About 85-95m OW FOR 50SOG

[Impact]

Next week (openers only):

McFarland, USA: 18.0

Hot Tub Time Machine 2: 14.5 (hard to predict tbh, the first one was not exactly a hit and it has been nearly 5 years)

The Duff: 5.0 (just a total crapshoot for this)

 

Okay for drops:

 

50 Shades: -70%

Kingsman: -40%

SpongeBob 2: -35%

American Sniper: -28%

[Maxmoser3]

February 20-22(openers only) weekend predictions:McFarland, USA:12.4 million, Hot Tub Time Machine 2:8.2 million, The DUFF: 3 million

[filmlover]

Hot Tub Time Machine 2 has the aura of a sequel that absolutely no one cares about. The first movie wasn't a massive hit to begin with, it came out five years ago, the star of the original didn't return, and on top of it all, the sequel looks really unfunny and unnecessary. I won't be surprised if it joins the list of total flops so far this year.

[Ethan Hunt]

Fifty Shades of Grey: 27M

Kingsman: 20M

McFarland USA: 17M

American Sniper: 15M

Hot Tub Time Machine 2: 7M

DUFF: 5M

[VictorHugogui]

Hot Tub Machine 2 : 13M

McFalarnd: 10M

Duff: 3M