Weekend Prediction thread 5/10-5/12 Play the Derby

[SteveJaros]

1 hour ago, RandomJC said:

 

 

Really shouldn't compare a May release to a Dec release.

 

I'm not sure why not, so OK, why not? 

[SteveJaros]

32 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

1. Not necessary to insult.

2. I began underlining I don't care about your opinions, not attacking you for having them. Read properly.

 

 

LOL ... denying your insulting intent only doubles down on it. Just admit you threw that statement about not caring what I like in there as a crack, and that's fine with me. No big deal.

Beyond that, I have explained myself: I think that Disney made a big mistake timing this film just 9 months after TFA was still in theaters. Sure, it's going to open nicely because the die-hard fans, like me, will rush out and see it. And IMO $90m or thereabouts is nicely.  

 

But then other factors kick in:

 

1) I expect "collateral" to open bigger than expected, at around $40m for the weekend, undercutting Rogue to an extent. The producers of Collateral have done a nice job in recent weeks in downplaying the weirdness of the film and making it seem like a nice feel-good holiday offering. Their last minute marketing has been good.

 

2) After that, Rogue's legs will shrivel from "Star Wars fatigue". It just won't attract the big family crowds, kids were already SW saturated this past year.

 

3) The one-three punch of Sing, Patriot's Day, and Passengers in a few days will also take chunks from Rogue's momentum. Sing is going to grab a lot of kids, and the other two a chunk of the sci-fi and action market. 

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm not predicting a Dino-level flop here. It will break $200m DOM and probably $500m WW. Disney will make money off of it and it will set the stage for other SW's films. But it's going to be like Fantastic Beast is to Harry Potter franchise. Nothing special. 
 

Edited December 14, 2016 by SteveJaros

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, SteveJaros said:

 

LOL ... denying your insulting intent only doubles down on it. Just admit you threw that statement about not caring what I like in there as a crack, and that's fine with me. No big deal.

Beyond that, I have explained myself: I think that Disney made a big mistake timing this film just 9 months after TFA was still in theaters. Sure, it's going to open nicely because the die-hard fans, like me, will rush out and see it. And IMO $90m or thereabouts is nicely.  

 

But then other factors kick in:

 

1) I expect "collateral" to open bigger than expected, at around $40m for the weekend, undercutting Rogue to an extent.

 

2) After that, Rogue's legs will shrivel from "Star Wars fatigue". It just won't attract the big family crowds, kids were already SW saturated this past year.

 

3) The one-three punch of Sing, Patriot's Day, and Passengers in a few days will also take chunks from Rogue's momentum.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm not predicting a Dino-level flop here. It will break $200m DOM and probably $500m WW. Disney will make money off of it and it will set the stage for other SW's films. But it's going to be like Fantastic Beast is to Harry Potter franchise. Nothing special. 
 

Yeah, you are definitely just trolling us all.

 

Collateral Beauty, an adult drama that's looking to be disastrously-reviewed, will be lucky if it makes $40M in its entire run, let alone on opening weekend.

 

Also, if you did your homework, you would see that Patriots Day is only opening in New York, Los Angeles, and Boston next week and won't be going wide until the middle of January.

 

Again: are you just fucking with us? Because it's time to drop the act.

[RandomCat]

36 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

 

2) After that, Rogue's legs will shrivel from "Star Wars fatigue". It just won't attract the big family crowds, kids were already SW saturated this past year.

 

 

I'll just comment on "Star Wars Fatigue". if after 8 years we haven't had MCU fatigue, or even Super hero fatigue, perhaps arguing SW fatigue or even saturation is a bit...much.

 

List of MCU WW gross by year.

2008 $848.60

2010 $623.90

2011 $819.90

2012 $1,518.80

2013 $1,859.40

2014 $1,487.60

2015 $1,924.70

2016 $1,801.00

 

List of MCU Dom Gross by year.

2016 $630,765,718

2015 $639,208,031

2014 $592,943,172

2013 $615,376,134

2012 $623,357,910

2011 $357,685,129

2010 $312,433,331

2008 $453,219,014

[RandomCat]

51 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

 

I'm not sure why not, so OK, why not? 

 

It's BO 101 (Maybe 102). Movies opening at different times of year have different types of legs, Holiday's affect performance. DEC releases tend to benefit from 3x multis, even poorly received films, especially since Jan is a pretty dead month. A movie opening in May doesn't benefit from any holiday 1-2, plus being blockbuster season has a big opener open every weekend to cut at it's legs, ensuring that you will see 2x multis.

[SteveJaros]

5 hours ago, RandomJC said:

 

It's BO 101 (Maybe 102). Movies opening at different times of year have different types of legs, Holiday's affect performance. DEC releases tend to benefit from 3x multis, even poorly received films, especially since Jan is a pretty dead month. A movie opening in May doesn't benefit from any holiday 1-2, plus being blockbuster season has a big opener open every weekend to cut at it's legs, ensuring that you will see 2x multis.

 

Yes, in the summer, you have a "big" film every week, which can cut legs. But in December, you have a similar effect - a few big films all scrunched in to  a short period of time. So the impact is likely to be similar.

 

I think you're underestimating the competition from Collateral, Sing, and Passengers but we shall see. 

Edited December 15, 2016 by SteveJaros

[SteveJaros]

5 hours ago, RandomJC said:

 

I'll just comment on "Star Wars Fatigue". if after 8 years we haven't had MCU fatigue, or even Super hero fatigue, perhaps arguing SW fatigue or even saturation is a bit...much.

 

 

IMO, MCU and SW are different. MCU is very broad, consisting of a wide range of characters. "Dr Strange" is very different from " Ant Man", which is very different from "The Avengers", so you can release those 6 months apart. Sure, they throw some overlap in there to keep the universe connected and build the overall MCU brand, but those are different films, different stories.

 

 

But there's a reason that while they release MCU movies every year, they space the ones specifically about the Thors and Captain Americas and Iron Mans out to every 2-3 years. Fatigue Danger.

 

In contrast, a Star Wars movie is a Star Wars movie. It's really just one line of films, so the fatigue factor is present with R1. 

Edited December 15, 2016 by SteveJaros

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

12 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

 

Yes, in the summer, you have a "big" film every week, which can cut legs. But in December, you have a similar effect - a few big films all scrunched in to  a short period of time. So the impact is likely to be similar.

 

I think you're underestimating the competition from Collateral, Sing, and Passengers but we shall see. 

But it isn't. In fact, we know it isn't. We have literal years of data.

[filmlover]

boop

Edited December 15, 2016 by filmlover

[filmlover]

21 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

 

Yes, in the summer, you have a "big" film every week, which can cut legs. But in December, you have a similar effect - a few big films all scrunched in to  a short period of time. So the impact is likely to be similar.

 

I think you're underestimating the competition from Collateral, Sing, and Passengers but we shall see. 

[RandomCat]

20 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

 

Yes, in the summer, you have a "big" film every week, which can cut legs. But in December, you have a similar effect - a few big films all scrunched in to  a short period of time. So the impact is likely to be similar.

 

I think you're underestimating the competition from Collateral, Sing, and Passengers but we shall see. 

 

You can't really compare Collateral, Sing, or Passengers to any Summer Blockbuster film. Also, there is no data to back up your hypothesis here, all available data points to the opposite being true.

[RandomCat]

15 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

 

IMO, MCU and SW are different. MCU is very broad, consisting of a wide range of characters. "Dr Strange" is very different from " Ant Man", which is very different from "The Avengers", so you can release those 6 months apart. Sure, they throw some overlap in there to keep the universe connected and build the overall MCU brand, but those are different films, different stories.

 

 

But there's a reason that while they release MCU movies every year, they space the ones specifically about the Thors and Captain Americas and Iron Mans out to every 2-3 years. Fatigue Danger.

 

In contrast, a Star Wars movie is a Star Wars movie. It's really just one line of films, so the fatigue factor is present with R1. 

 

Ok...I disagree with this assertion. There is nothing to suggest SW Fatigue. Where is any of your data to support it?

[Eevin]

8 hours ago, SteveJaros said:

 

You did fanboy me - that was the obvious motivation for your rude and snarky comment on my prediction. Lying about either isn't helping your case. As for me, I don't have a case, no need for one. I just made a prediction that irked a fanboy. 

You know what? Yes. Clearly yes. Of course I must be a fanboy desperate to attack someone. It's not at all the fact that I am a box office nerd and am genuinely curious as to how you are making these unconventional predictions.

I see your reasoning above, so despite your somewhat flawed logic I'm at least appreciative of the fact that you're willing to back up your predictions. We'll wait and see, I guess. 

[Eevin]

Speaking of which, my predictions:

Rogue One- $171m

Collateral Beauty- $4.5m

Manchester- $8m

 

Not even going to attempt to predict the holdovers, at least not until we get the TC drop numbers.

[That One Girl]

Rogue One - 195M

Collateral Beauty - 10M

Manchester by the Sea - 7M

[JonathanLB]

On 12/13/2016 at 6:50 AM, SteveJaros said:

Rogue 1 .....  $85m

Collateral .....   $40m

 

I see R1 tracking DOM like Godzilla in 2014. Opens around 90, finishes up just north of 200. 

 

I'm just confused how you can be on a box office forum posting in a box office thread but seemingly know nothing about the box office? I mean the worst possible industry prediction for Rogue One would be about $120M and that would be extremely shocking. You cannot be serious in thinking ANY Star Wars movie is going to make only $200 million. You're acting like it's on par with Doctor Strange, which is just silly. There are low predictions, like $120M, and ridiculous ones. Yours is ridiculous. I just can't tell if you're trolling -- and if so, why -- or you just don't really get how the box office works. 

 

I personally had little interest in rushing to see Suicide Squad, but that doesn't mean I thought it would make $30M OW just because I wasn't into it. It was still a massively hyped movie that I knew would open big. The same is true of Rogue One. You could personally think it's the worst movie of all time but that has nothing to do with how it's going to perform this weekend. You should know based on the previews alone it'll hit 40% of your OW prediction before it even hits the weekend. 

[filmlover]

Guys, it's SteveJaros. Arguing with someone who is clearly a troll is a waste of time.

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[Blankments]

On 12/8/2016 at 7:17 PM, Blankments said:

Rules Don't Apply is gone.

Trolls, Hacksaw Ridge, Incarnate, Moonlight, Almost Christmas, Bad Santa 2, and The Edge of Seventeen are gone.

 

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - 20/21 (2D/3D) total 41 (debut)

Collateral Beauty - 15 (debut)

Moana - 14/1 (2D/3D) total 15 (down 2)

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - 11/3 (2D/3D) total 14 (down 2)

Office Christmas Party - 9 (down 3)
Doctor Strange - 6 (down 9)
Arrival - 5 (no change)
Manchester by the Sea - 5 (debut)

Nocturnal Animals - 4 (down 3)
Miss Sloane - 2 (down 10)

Allied - 1 (down 9)
 

And we'll switch to hometown theaters for a month...

 

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - 32/3/19/2/5 (2D/2D with D-BOX/3D/3D with D-BOX/IMAX 3D) total 61

Moana - 21

Office Christmas Party - 17

Collateral Beauty - 16

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - 16

Allied - 15

Doctor Strange - 10

Manchester by the Sea - 10

Trolls - 9

Arrival - 8

Hacksaw Ridge - 6
Nocturnal Animals - 6
Bad Santa 2 - 4
Miss Sloane - 4

Incarnate - 3

[Maxmoser3]

Next weekend(Christmas predictions) because I am bored right now. Sing: $60 million 3-day($91 million 5-day), Passengers: $39 million 3-day($62 million 5-day, Assassin's Creed:$19 million 3-day($31 million 5-day), Why Him?: $11 million 3-day.