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Weekend Prediction thread 7/4-7/7 Independence Day weekend Play the Derby

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

Posted
Posted (edited)

Finding Dory: 130M

Central Intelligence: 45M

The Conjuring: 17M

Now You See Me: 10M

Warcraft: 7.6M

TMNT: 6M

Me Before You: 4.6M

X-Men: 4M

Angry Birds: 2.7M

Alice: 2.2M

Captain America: 1.9M

The Jungle Book: 1.2M

Edited by WrathOfHan
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mahnamahna Box Office Gold

mahnamahna

Posted
Posted

6/17-6/19

  1. Finding Dory: $134.5 million
  2. Central Intelligence: $45.5 million
  3. The Conjuring 2: $17 million ($72 million)
  4. Now You See Me 2: $10.5 million ($42 million) 
  5. Warcraft: $8.5 million ($40 million) 
  6. Me Before You: $6 million ($47 million) 
  7. TMNT 2: $6 million ($72 million) 
  8. X-Men - Apocalypse: $4.5 million ($144 million) 
  9. Alice Through the Looking Glass: $2.5 million ($67 million) 
  10. The Angry Birds Movie: $2.5 million ($102 million) 

6/24-6/26

  1. Finding Dory: $81 million ($287 million)
  2. Independence Day - Resurgence: $74 million 
  3. Central Intelligence: $28 million ($96 million) 
  4. Free State of Jones: $11 million 
  5. The Conjuring 2: $8 million ($87 million) 
  6. Now You See Me 2: $6.5 million ($54 million)
  7. Me Before You: $4 million ($54 million) 
  8. Warcraft: $3.5 million ($47 million) 
  9. TMNT 2: $3 million ($78 million) 
  10. X-Men - Apocalypse: $2.5 million ($153 million)

7/1-7/4

  1. Finding Dory: $44 million/$57.5 million ($388 million) 
  2. Independence Day - Resurgence: $32 million/$44 million ($150 million) 
  3. The BFG: $27 million/$34 million 
  4. Central Intelligence: $19 million/$23.5 million ($138 million) 
  5. The Legend of Tarzan: $15 million/$18.5 million 
  6. The Purge - Election Year: $13 million/$15 million 
  7. The Shallows: $8 million/$9.5 million ($15 million) 
  8. Free State of Jones: $7.5 million/$8.5 million ($27 million)
  9. Now You See Me 2: $4 million/$4.75 million ($62 million) 
  10. Me Before You: $3 million/$3.5 million ($60 million) 

7/8-7/10

  1. The Secret Lives of Pets: $86 million 
  2. Finding Dory: $20 million ($421 million) 
  3. Independence Day - Resurgence: $16 million ($174 million) 
  4. The BFG: $11.5 million ($52 million) 
  5. Central Intelligence: $10 million ($153 million)
  6. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates: $8.5 million 
  7. The Legend of Tarzan: $6 million ($28 million) 
  8. The Purge - Election Year: $5 million ($23 million)
  9. Free State of Jones: $4.5 million ($35 million) 
  10. The Shallows: $4 million ($21 million) 

7/15-7/17

  1. Ghostbusters: $60.5 million 
  2. The Secret Lives of Pets: $53 million ($191 million) 
  3. Finding Dory: $13.5 million ($447 million)
  4. Independence Day - Resurgence: $9.5 million ($192 million)
  5. The BFG: $8 million ($68 million) 
  6. Central Intelligence: $5 million ($162 million) 
  7. The Infiltrator: $4.5 million 
  8. The Legend of Tarzan: $3.5 million ($35 million) 
  9. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates: $3.5 million ($15 million) 
  10. Free State of Jones: $3 million ($41 million) 

 

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bcf26 Box Office Gold

bcf26

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, mahnamahna said:

7/1-7/4

  1. Finding Dory: $44 million/$57.5 million ($388 million) 
  2. Independence Day - Resurgence: $32 million/$44 million ($150 million) 
  3. The BFG: $27 million/$34 million 
  4. Central Intelligence: $19 million/$23.5 million ($138 million) 
  5. The Legend of Tarzan: $15 million/$18.5 million 
  6. The Purge - Election Year: $13 million/$15 million 
  7. The Shallows: $8 million/$9.5 million ($15 million) 
  8. Free State of Jones: $7.5 million/$8.5 million ($27 million)
  9. Now You See Me 2: $4 million/$4.75 million ($62 million) 
  10. Me Before You: $3 million/$3.5 million ($60 million)             

 

:kitschjob:

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trifle Box Office Gold

trifle

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, stripe said:

Dory 115M

CI 40M

Conjuring 18M

NYSM2 11M

Warcraft 10M

TMNT2 7.5M

MBY 5.5M

Angry Birds 3M

CW 3M

Alice2 2M

 

Top10 - 215M

 

 

You think Alice will be above XA?

 

If anything, I would think Dory would hurt Alice the most.

Edited by trifle
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johnboy3434 Sleeper Hit

johnboy3434

Posted
Posted (edited)

Here's my projections for next weekend and total grosses based on this weekend's actuals (returning films only).

 

The Conjuring 2                                                       $17.8M (-56.1%)  $103M (2.54x)

Now You See Me 2                                                   $16.7M (-25.4%)  $86.9M (3.88x)

Warcraft                                                                   $9.2M (-61.9%)    $86.6M (3.58x)

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows  $8.45M (-41.3%)  $101M (2.85x)

Me Before You                                                          $6.58M (-27.2%)  $58.6M (3.13x)

X-Men: Apocalypse                                                   $5.34M (-46.1%)  $157M (1.96x)

The Angry Birds Movie                                              $4.21M (-35.7%)  $113M (2.97x)

Alice Through the Looking Glass                               $3.92M (-30.6%)  $92.8M (2.77x)

Captain America: Civil War                                        $2.27M (-47.4%)  $405M (2.26x)

The Nice Guys                                                           $1.25M (-36.4%) $39.1M (3.49x)

Love & Friendship                                                     $901k (-35.8%)    $12.6M (5.88x)

Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising                                                                   $54.2M (2.49x)

Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping                                                       $9.89M (2.11x)

 

Edited by johnboy3434
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stripe Box Office Gold

stripe

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, johnboy3434 said:

Here's my projections for next weekend and total grosses based on this weekend's actuals (returning films only).

 

The Conjuring 2                                                       $17.8M (-56.1%)  $102M (2.52x)

Now You See Me 2                                                   $16.7M (-25.4%)  $85.9M (3.84x)

Warcraft                                                                   $9.2M (-61.9%)    $83.7M (3.47x)

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows  $8.45M (-41.3%)  $101M (2.85x)

Me Before You                                                          $6.58M (-27.2%)  $58.6M (3.13x)

X-Men: Apocalypse                                                   $4.98M (-49.7%)  $154M (1.92x)

The Angry Birds Movie                                              $4.33M (-33.8%)  $113M (2.96x)

Alice Through the Looking Glass                               $3.46M (-38.7%)  $84.7M (2.53x)

Captain America: Civil War                                        $2.28M (-47%)     $405M (2.26x)

The Nice Guys                                                           $1.32M (-32.6%) $39.5M (3.53x)

Love & Friendship                                                     $901k (-35.8%)    $7.7M (3.6x)

Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising                                                                   $54.1M (2.49x)

Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping                                                       $9.56M (2.03x)

 

 

I would bet anything against NYSM2 only dropping 25%. 52% drop instead?

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picores Box Office Gold

picores

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, johnboy3434 said:

Here's my projections for next weekend and total grosses based on this weekend's actuals (returning films only).

 

The Conjuring 2                                                       $17.8M (-56.1%)  $102M (2.52x)

Now You See Me 2                                                   $16.7M (-25.4%)  $85.9M (3.84x)

Warcraft                                                                   $9.2M (-61.9%)    $83.7M (3.47x)

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows  $8.45M (-41.3%)  $101M (2.85x)

Me Before You                                                          $6.58M (-27.2%)  $58.6M (3.13x)

X-Men: Apocalypse                                                   $4.98M (-49.7%)  $154M (1.92x)

The Angry Birds Movie                                              $4.33M (-33.8%)  $113M (2.96x)

Alice Through the Looking Glass                               $3.46M (-38.7%)  $84.7M (2.53x)

Captain America: Civil War                                        $2.28M (-47%)     $405M (2.26x)

The Nice Guys                                                           $1.32M (-32.6%) $39.5M (3.53x)

Love & Friendship                                                     $901k (-35.8%)    $7.7M (3.6x)

Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising                                                                   $54.1M (2.49x)

Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping                                                       $9.56M (2.03x)

 

 

Warcraft with a 3.5x multiplier? Not happening...

Edited by picores
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johnboy3434 Sleeper Hit

johnboy3434

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, stripe said:

 

I would bet anything against NYSM2 only dropping 25%. 52% drop instead?

 

5 hours ago, picores said:

 

Warcraft with a 3.5x multiplier? Not happening...

 

Just a heads-up: my projections are probably going to be a bit wonky for movies that are in their first week of release. The decision of what movie I'm going to use as a regressor is based on the second weekend drop, so until then I simply stick with a "similar" movie that had an opening weekend gross near the film in question. For example, I'm using Annabelle, Pixels, and Limitless, respectively for the three new films, but will reassess those choices after the second weekend. Limitless had legs for days, which is why my estimate for NYSM2 has such a light drop.

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mahnamahna Box Office Gold

mahnamahna

Posted
Posted
On 6/13/2016 at 0:43 AM, bcf26 said:

 

:kitschjob:

The Shallows targeting part of the horror demo. 

 

Every sequel for Summer 2016 other than Civil War, Conjuring 2 and most likely Finding Dory underperforming big time. 

 

Tarzan, BFG, ID42, Central Intelligence, Shallows, Dory and Free State of Jones will all be vying for screens that weekend. 

 

Most horror franchises decline by the third film.

 

It also has a lot more competition than Purge 2 (July 2014 was very barren, whereas July 2016 has SLoP, Ghostbusters, IA5, Star Trek 3, Bourne and Bad Moms) 

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johnboy3434 Sleeper Hit

johnboy3434

Posted
Posted (edited)

Here's my projections for next weekend and total grosses based on Monday's numbers (returning films only). Warcraft's total went completely off the rails.

 

The Conjuring 2                                                     $20.5M (-49.4%)  $118M (2.93x)

Now You See Me 2                                                 $16.8M (-25.1%)  $87.5M (3.91x)

Warcraft                                                                $8.55M (-64.6%)  $103M (4.25x)

Me Before You                                                        $7.07M (-21.8%)  $65.5M (3.5x)

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows  $6.51M (-54.7%)   $87.3M (2.47x)

X-Men: Apocalypse                                                 $4.83M (-51.2%)   $152M (1.9x)

The Angry Birds Movie                                             $4.08M (-37.7%)  $112M (2.94x)

Alice Through the Looking Glass                               $3.49M (-38.2%)   $85.1M (2.54x)

Captain America: Civil War                                       $2.28M (-47.1%)  $405M (2.26x)

The Nice Guys                                                         $990k (-49.5%)   $37.1M (3.31x)

Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising                                                                 $54.1M (2.49x)

Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping                                                      $9.43M (2.01x)

 

Edited by johnboy3434
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Blankments Global Phenomenon

Blankments

Posted
Posted
  1. Finding Dory - 117.8M
  2. Central Intelligence - 46.3M
  3. The Conjuring 2 - 19.8M
  4. Now You See Me 2 - 10.1M
  5. Warcraft - 7.7M
  6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows - 5.2M
  7. Me Before You - 3.9M
  8. X-Men: Apocalypse - 3.3M
  9. The Angry Birds Movie - 3.2M
  10. Alice Through the Looking Glass - 2.5M
  11. Captain America: Civil War - 2.2M
  12. The Jungle Book - 1.6M
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Blankments Global Phenomenon

Blankments

Posted
Posted
On 6/8/2016 at 8:15 PM, Jeff Goldblank said:

Nothing is gone. Drive-in is The Angry Birds Movie and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows.

Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising, Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping, The Jungle Book, Love and Friendship, The Lobster, The Nice Guys, and Money Monster are gone. Drive-in is Finding Dory and Alice Through the Looking Glass.

 

Finding Dory - 40/20 (2D/3D) total 60 (debut)

Warcraft - 14/10/5 (2D/3D/IMAX 3D) total 29 (down 6)

Central Intelligence - 16/5 (2D/2D with D-BOX) total 21 (debut)
The Conjuring 2 - 19 (down 3)

Me Before You - 16 (no change)

Now You See Me 2 - 16 (down 3)

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows - 16 (down 16)

The Angry Birds Movie - 10 (down 5)
Alice Through the Looking Glass - 8 (down 8)

Maggie's Plan - 5 (debut)
X-Men: Apocalypse - 5 (down 8)

Captain America: Civil War - 4 (down 8)

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Krissykins Global Phenomenon

Krissykins

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, lilmac said:

 

Source?

 

Rotten Tomatoes. 

 

Just from the quotes on the main page, even these fresh reviews:

 

Associated Press, MTV, Rolling Stone, Chicago Tribune, USA Today, Hollywood Reporter, Las Vegas Weekly, Daily Telegraph.

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