Weekend Prediction thread 7/4-7/7 Independence Day weekend Play the Derby

[EmpireCity]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

I honestly think it might not even go above 3000 theaters. 

 

It is estimated at 2,900 right now and given that Hands of Stone isn't taking up as many and other factors hoping that Sony pushed for more.  

[CJohn]

4 minutes ago, nilephelan said:

 

It is estimated at 2,900 right now and given that Hands of Stone isn't taking up as many and other factors hoping that Sony pushed for more.  

 

Sony seems very confident in the movie. Hopefully they do push for more theaters.

[filmlover]

Don't Breathe should easily benefit from lack of competition.

 

That said, the low grosses incoming for Mechanic and Hands of Stone is still a sign that we've arrived at the dog days of summer.

[EmpireCity]

Even if you look at something as anecdotal as current twitter mentions, there is a lot of activity and from a young, diverse walk up type crowd.  

[cannastop]

20 hours ago, Impact said:

What will be the next big opener? Sully? When the Bough Breaks? Magnificent Seven? (or maybe 20M+ opener or even a 30M+ opener-as I said for M7 it is stilly iffy even if it does amazing in the state I live in that means nothing elsewhere as westerns tend to always do well here)

Storks.

[filmlover]

The marketing for Don't Breathe has actually been really effective. Thrillers like this (that have a clear and marketable premise) usually do solid business at least ala The Shallows.

[EmpireCity]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The marketing for Don't Breathe has actually been really effective. Thrillers like this (that have a clear and marketable premise) usually do solid business at least ala The Shallows.

 

Agreed, and it is actually a really effective film that is better than most horror releases.  I'm not into horror, but it is well done and Stephen Lang is terrifying.  

[filmlover]

Just now, nilephelan said:

 

Agreed, and it is actually a really effective film that is better than most horror releases.  I'm not into horror, but it is well done and Stephen Lang is terrifying.  

I'm actually really looking forward to it and I never see horror movies in theaters (except on rare occasions). Also would like to see Jane Levy get more movie work.

[EmpireCity]

Like I said, this part is purely anecdotal, but type "don't breathe" into a twitter search and watch it for a half hour or so.  There seems to be a ton of interest picking up.  

[Blankments]

1. Don't Breathe - 18.7M
2. Suicide Squad - 13.7M
3. War Dogs - 8.5M
4. Sausage Party - 8.3M
5. Kubo and the Two Strings - 8.2M
6. Hell or High Water - 7.2M
7. Bad Moms - 6.0M
8. Pete's Dragon - 5.8M
9. Ben-Hur - 5.5M
10. Jason Bourne - 4.9M
11. The Secret Life of Pets - 4.1M
12. Mechanic: Resurrection - 3.3M

[Maxmoser3]

Hands Of Stone got pushed to next week.

[EmpireCity]

26 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said:

Hands Of Stone got pushed to next week.

 

Not exactly true, it got split.  

[babz06]

Southside with You expanding to 800 theaters this weekend

 

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-obama-love-story-southside-with-you-predictions-922340

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[filmlover]

11 hours ago, babz06 said:

Southside with You expanding to 800 theaters this weekend

 

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-obama-love-story-southside-with-you-predictions-922340

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Interesting. I do think it has sleeper hit potential.

[Hiccup23]

1. Don't Breath- $15.3 million

2. Suicide Squad- $11.7 million (-43.7%)

3. Kubo and Two Strings- $8.3 million (-34.1%)

4. Sausage Party- $8.2 million (-47.1%)

5. War Dogs- $7.8 million (-46.6%)

 

 

[EmpireCity]

There is a comparison that could work out to show how Don't Breathe breaks out opening weekend.  

 

When A Stranger Calls (2006) had a $21.6m opening weekend with a similar 2,999 theater count.  Simple, straight forward alone in the house with a psycho concept that had an effective marketing campaign and released by Sony the first week of February.  Plays to a diverse but younger crowd and is more of a thriller than a horror film.  

 

It was PG-13, but it had terrible reviews so that might be a wash. 

[filmlover]

lmao the When a Stranger Calls remake. Remember the marketing giving away the Big Twist?

[lobogotti]

1 hour ago, nilephelan said:

There is a comparison that could work out to show how Don't Breathe breaks out opening weekend.  

 

When A Stranger Calls (2006) had a $21.6m opening weekend with a similar 2,999 theater count.  Simple, straight forward alone in the house with a psycho concept that had an effective marketing campaign and released by Sony the first week of February.  Plays to a diverse but younger crowd and is more of a thriller than a horror film.  

 

It was PG-13, but it had terrible reviews so that might be a wash. 

 

Lights Out only opened in 2818 theaters to $21.7M and just 6 weeks ago.

 

Don't Breathe has near 9M trailer views, FB likes are solidly above War Dogs (not sure where they were to Lights Out same point in the sales cycle).  It also showed up much earlier on Twitter than War Dogs and has been killing it on there the last two days.  Outperformed Rings yesterday with their trailer premiere going for them.  Lighting it up this morning too.

 

$16M-$20M seems almost a lock at this point.  $20M+ is going to be tougher, but definitely possible.  I read over on HSX that awareness is under 60% and I'm not sure where that info is coming from.  As far as the social media atmosphere is going, the kids are talking about it and that's all the awareness you need for this film.

[EmpireCity]

Just now, lobogotti said:

 

Lights Out only opened in 2818 theaters to $21.7M and just 6 weeks ago.

 

Don't Breathe has near 9M trailer views, FB likes are solidly above War Dogs (not sure where they were to Lights Out same point in the sales cycle).  It also showed up much earlier on Twitter than War Dogs and has been killing it on there the last two days.  Outperformed Rings yesterday with their trailer premiere going for them.  Lighting it up this morning too.

 

$16M-$20M seems almost a lock at this point.  $20M+ is going to be tougher, but definitely possible.  I read over on HSX that awareness is under 60% and I'm not sure where that info is coming from.  As far as the social media atmosphere is going, the kids are talking about it and that's all the awareness you need for this film.

 

I'm all in on this and have been for a while now.  Hope it breaks out.  

[Krissykins]

37 minutes ago, nilephelan said:

 

I'm all in on this and have been for a while now.  Hope it breaks out.  

 

I hope so too.