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87TH ACADEMY AWARDS CEREMONY DISCUSSION THREAD AAAHHH! | Discuss It Live Here

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Hatebox Global Phenomenon

Hatebox

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Boyhood won the Bafta for best picture, its Oscar BP is all but a certainty now. Would have preferred Birdman but it's hard to complain.

 

I will say that the best supporting actress category this year is really poor though. Arquette also won the BAFTA and apart from her admirable commitment to a 12 year project I don't think she was anything special.

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riczhang Global Phenomenon

riczhang

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Boyhood won the Bafta for best picture, its Oscar BP is all but a certainty now. Would have preferred Birdman but it's hard to complain.

 

I will say that the best supporting actress category this year is really poor though. Arquette also won the BAFTA and apart from her admirable commitment to a 12 year project I don't think she was anything special.

 

 

It's not certain tho. Birdman did win PGA, which is the only guild that votes the same way the AMPAS does - by ranked ballot. The only thing Boyhood got tonight was a big boost that it will try to capitalise on to close the gap it has with Birdman. 

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Impact Global Phenomenon

Impact

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Going off if Selma wins song, along with some other stuff, then for the first time since 2008 every BP nominated film from that year will win something. (I just wish now that some non BP nom films will win other then visuals of course. And animated feature and stuff like foreign, doc and short films lol)

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Impact Global Phenomenon

Impact

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BTW I did say earlier that Birdman does have more going for it if you think about it.

It has:
A bigger and more successful studio at the Oscars.

Bigger cast (and more known)

Story is more accessible to Hollywood folk.

 

I see it winning BP, BD, screenplay and cinematography. (I guess no acting wins unless if Keaton or even Stone manages to sneak in. And can't picture it winning either sound cat)

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Jake Gittes Global Phenomenon

Jake Gittes

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Birdman is still more likely to win BP. This year's race is now resembling the 2007 one where Atonement won Globe and BAFTA while No Country won PGA, DGA and the Oscar (though Atonement was much less of a threat than Boyhood is considering Joe Wright wasn't nominated for Best Director). 

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Impact Global Phenomenon

Impact

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If there is a surprise in the acting cats which one? I could imagine actor having that happen. Same with actress even given that it is the only nom for it (note I know a few films have won without being nominated for anything but its very rare and its not like the film had great reviews, but I still think she will win given the subject matter of her character and how she will be considered overdue). Supporting actress-well I could see Knightley winning this but not counting on it. Supporting actor-really can't see anyone else winning.

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Chriss Indie Sensation

Chriss

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Boyhood never jumps out as a serious frontrunner, which makes me to believe Birdman will go for the double with BP and BD. Best actor is very unlikely to go to Bradley Cooper. Eddie Redmayne is standing very strong at this point.

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riczhang Global Phenomenon

riczhang

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Best Actor seems the most likely to me. Maybe Bradley Cooper because other award shows didn't really get a chance w/ that work so the precursors don't matter. maybe michael keaton if they REALLY like birdman.

 

 

I think that Boyhood winning BAFTA sealed the deal for Eddie. Cooper basically doesn't have a chance now because AS's BO story has kinda faded now and it's 3rd week (for various reasons, but irrelevant to this discussion) didn't have a crazy hold like its other weeks and so the buzz for it has kinda faded. Also Keaton didn't win at BAFTA so there wasn't a chance of Eddie and Keaton splitting the votes and Cooper coming up the middle. (Which definitely could happen. We see it routinely happen in elections and I suspect some of the awards races too) 

 

And as for Keaton he needed to win BAFTA to really be in contention, since he has lost both industry acting awards. Also, Birdman losing to Boyhood means that the Birdman love wasn't quite as strong as we thought. The Brits make up something like 10-20% of the Academy I think, which is definitely significant in a tight race. (Ex. Meryl v. Viola) Also, I think at this point we can probably say that if Keaton does win it'll be on the coattails of Birdman, but since Boyhood won BP at BAFTA we know that Birdman  couldn't possibly be the runaway favourite that a sweep of SAG/PGA/DGA generally indicates (but sweeping doesn't necessitate a runaway favourite, but not sweeping would necessarily indicate a tight race), so it is unlikely that the strength of Birdman, even if it wins BP, will be enough to carry Keaton over the line especially considering what boxes that Eddie ticks. Famous Person, Transformation, Bio-Pic, BP nominee, Disease, etc. I would be extremely surprised if Eddie loses on Oscar night; imo it would be a comparable level of surprise to if the other three Acting frontrunners lost. 

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