Jake Gittes Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 (edited) Frankly after seeing Sicario I'm not sure why Lionsgate doesn't seem to be pushing it harder, unless they just don't want to spend the money. It's an accomplished, artful and emotionally charged movie that deals with serious themes intelligently, a solid box office success praised by the vast majority of critics, and exactly the kind of very well-done mid-budget film that everyone claims is dead every year. Villeneuve, Blunt, Del Toro, Deakins, Johannsson, the editor and the film itself are all nomination-worthy. If it were to get a serious push it'd be in a far better position than little-seen indie darlings like Room, Brooklyn and Son of Saul. Edited November 27, 2015 by Jake Gittes 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Halba Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 its revenant facing off vs spotlight imho unless hateful eight and /or joy are boyhood level.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 18 hours ago, Jake Gittes said: Frankly after seeing Sicario I'm not sure why Lionsgate doesn't seem to be pushing it harder, unless they just don't want to spend the money. It's an accomplished, artful and emotionally charged movie that deals with serious themes intelligently, a solid box office success praised by the vast majority of critics, and exactly the kind of very well-done mid-budget film that everyone claims is dead every year. Villeneuve, Blunt, Del Toro, Deakins, Johannsson, the editor and the film itself are all nomination-worthy. If it were to get a serious push it'd be in a far better position than little-seen indie darlings like Room, Brooklyn and Son of Saul. I can't wait to see Sicario! But I think it's minimal oscar traction besides LionsGate, has something to do with the oscar race being a self-fulfilling prophecy for some movies. Let's compare it to a movie that still has a real shot at a BP nomination, Steve Jobs. Both movies cost about the same (30m), they both have "importantance" to sell to the academy (war on drugs, famous biography) and they also both have cast&crew with pedigree (Jobs has a bit more to be fair). Sicario has better reviews than Steve Jobs, Sicario is a modest commercial hit while Jobs is a flat-out flop. And besides that if one of the two get a BP nomination, I bet it won't be Sicario. Some of it is due to LionsGate lack of of push, but they never had anything to push. Sicario was a movie that COULD enter the BP race IF it had the reviews and IF it broke out at the boxoffice. It got the great reviews but didn't really broke out at the boxoffice, so it never really got into the "oscar talk" within the industry. Steve Jobs was a "huge contender" months before it got released, and even with just fine reviews and terrible bo results is still in the conversation and might even end up with a few big nominations. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 I've been kind of thinkings Steve Jobs would get snubbed, it doesn't seem to have any real traction. Id bank on Bridge of Spies over it, that has potential, as it's a good sleeper hit, great reviews, and big named cast and crew. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 On November 26, 2015 at 7:15:38 PM, treeroy said: Not an article about Academy but interesting list of the best films as voted by 168 critics: http://www.bfi.org.uk/best-films-2015 #1 The Assassin #2 Carol #3 Mad Max: Fury Road #4 Arabian Nights #5 Cemetery of Splendour #6 No Home Movie #7 45 Years #8 Son of Saul #9 Amy #10 Inherent Vice #11 Anomalisa #12 It Follows #13 Phoenix #14 Girlhood #15 Hard to be a God #16 Inside Out #17 Tangerine #18 Taxi Tehran #19 Horse Money #20 The Look of Silence What a great list! Carol, The Assassin, Cemetery of Splendour and Arabian Night are all in my top five of the year! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 The Danish Girl is definitely still happening Imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avatree Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 1 minute ago, TStechnij said: The Danish Girl is definitely still happening Imo. For best picture? Really? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Danish Girl's BP chances are slim. It's not even the second most talked about period piece in the race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 It has been quiet lately because Vikander and Redmayne have been busy with other projects. Now that they aren't, it is going to be hugely promoted. There have already been a shit ton of SAG screenings. 1. It's reviews are about the same, if not better than The Theory of Everything on its opening weekend. It's Metacritic score is sitting at 69 but has been going up recently. 2. It's going to be better received than Les Miserables which got an easy BP nom and Hooper even had some director traction. (DGA embraced IIRC.) 3. Hooper is an Academy fave. 4. Eddie proved last year that he loves to campaign and has just started his campaigning for this film. The only people who are willing to show more face are Vikander and Hooper. 5. It is a baity topic, presented in a conservative, pretty fashion-- something The Academy loves. 6. Box office is doing well. Bigger PTA than The Theory of Everything. 7. It'll score two acting noms and a few below the line noms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Ugh to all of that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 critics awards start in a couple days. I expect Spotlight and Carol to dominate those. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 48 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said: Ugh to all of that. I hated the movie so much, but I have to be perceptive. I'd have it at 8th or 9th-- Ahead of Room and stuff like Steve Jobs. 10 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said: critics awards start in a couple days. I expect Spotlight and Carol to dominate those. I doubt Spotlight gets a lot of attention with the one-two hit of Carol and MMFR. The highbrow critics are already praising those two. I can see NBR and DFW or Denver going the way of Spotlight though. I actually am thinkin Creed might take NBR because they are so in love with WB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 spotlight will probably win the majority with the smaller critics groups. they're the kind that gave argo like 1000 critic wins a few years ago. not big deals but it fills up the fyc ads. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 I still expect Miller to win the most Best Director awards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 Current Predictions Bridge of Spies Brooklyn Carol Creed Hateful Eight Inside Out Joy The Revenant Spotlight The Next Possible Five The Danish Girl Mad Max: Fury Road The Martian Room Son of Saul My gut says The Martian isn't making it (though noms for Screenplay and Actor are still viable), and Room won't have enough of a caliber to get there (Actress/Screenplay noms would be a victory alone). If Creed's buzz remains, it could do a helluva lot more than just Stalloscar. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 Since awards season pretty much kicks off this week I'm gonna just throw out my blanket predictions of how I feel for everything before hand: Picture: Bridge of Spies Brooklyn Carol Joy The Martian The Revenant Room Spotlight Director: Steven Spielberg Todd Haynes David Russell ridders Tom Mcarthy Actor: Matt Damon Johnny Depp Leo DiCaprio Michael Fassbender Eddie Redmayne Actress: Cate Blanchett Brie Larson Jennifer Lawrence Rooney Mara Saoirse Ronan Supp. Actor: Tom Hardy Michael Keaton Mark Ruffalo Mark Rylance Sylvester Stallone Supp. Actress Jane Fonda Jennifer Jason Leigh Rachel McAdams Alicia Vikander Kate Winslet Adapted Screenplay Brooklyn Carol The Martian Room Steve Jobs Original Screenplay Bridge of Spies Hateful Eight Inside Out Joy Spotlight Animated Feature Anomalisa Inside Out The Peanuts Movie Shaun the Sheep When Marnie Was There Editing Creed Joy Mad Max: Fury Road The Martian Spotlight Cinematography Carol The Hateful Eight Mad Max: Fury Road The Revenant Sicario Costumes Brooklyn Carol Cinderella Crimson Peak The Danish Girl Production Design Bridge of Spies Carol Crimson Peak The Danish Girl Star Wars: The Force Awakens Make-up Mad Max Fury Road The Revenant Star Wars: The Force Awakens Score Bridge of Spies Carol The Hateful Eight (?) Inside Out Star Wars: The Force Awakens Song Creed Furious 7 The Hunting Grounds Love & Mercy uhhh.. spectre?? Sound Mad Max Fury Road The Martian The Revenant Son of Saul Star Wars The Force Awakens Sound Editing Mad Max Fury Road The Martian The Revenant Sicario Star Wars The Force Awakens Visual Effects Ant-Man The Martian The Revenant Star Wars The Force Awakens The Walk doccos/foriegn/shorts no clue right now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goffe Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 Brooklyn Carol Spotlight Creed Bridge of Spies Inside Out If Star Wars doesn't get in, MMFR will. Joy and The Hateful Eight are locked to be nominated. The last spot would be between 45 Years, Room and Sicario Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
movieboner Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 My wins from your list: Picture: Spotlight Director: Ridley Scott Actor: Leo DiCaprio Actress: Brie Larson Supp. Actor: Sylvester Stallone Supp. Actress Alicia Vikander Adapted Screenplay Steve Jobs Original Screenplay Inside Out Animated Feature Inside Out Editing Mad Max: Fury Road Cinematography Mad Max: Fury Road Costumes Cinderella Production Design Carol Make-up Mad Max Fury Road Score Inside Out Song Furious 7 Sound The Martian Sound Editing Mad Max Fury Road Visual Effects Star Wars The Force Awakens Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goffe Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 (edited) Animation: I think TGD is getting over Peanuts and/or Marnie. I remember reading somewhere that animation professionals favored technically complex/visually beautiful movies and classical storytelling, not necessarily the best one. That was the main reason why Lego wasn't nominated last year. Visual Effects: MMFR, SW and Revenant are locked to be nominated. The Walk, Furious 7, Spectre and maybe MI5 will fight for the last 2 spots. Edited November 29, 2015 by Goffe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 (edited) Best Picture: 1. Spotlight 2. The Martian 3. The Revenant 4. Joy 5. Inside Out 6. Bridge of Spies 7. Carol 8. The Hateful Eight ------------------------ 9. Steve Jobs 10. Brooklyn Spoilers: Creed, Room, Star Wars I still feel like Steve Jobs could get a lot of #1 votes and Brooklyn appeals to that period piece section of members. I imagine Creed will be WB's main vehicle so depending on the campaign and how Hateful Eight fares I could see it getting in. Best Director: 1. Ridley Scott 2. Tom McCarthy 3. Alejandro Inarritu 4. David O Russell 5. Steven Spielberg Spoilers: Todd Haynes, Quentin Tarantino, George Miller The fifth spot is the real wildcard. Going with Spielberg now simply because he's an Academy favorite. Best Actor: 1. Michael Fassbender 2. Matt Damon 3. Leonardo DiCaprio 4. Eddie Redmayne 5. Samuel L Jackson Spoilers: Will Smith, Michael B Jordan Best Actress: 1. Brie Larson 2. Jennifer Lawrence 3. Cate Blanchett 4. Saorise Ronan 5. Charlotte Rampling Spoilers: Carey Mulligan, Charlize Theron I want Charlize to get the fifth spot badly. Best Supporting Actor: 1. Sylvester Stallone 2. Mark Rylance 3. Mark Ruffalo 4. Tom Hardy 5. Michael Keaton Spoilers: Paul Dano, Jacob Tremblay This is the only acting category with any suspense whatsoever. The Actress categories both have a clear winner and Actor is a matter of figuring out the last two spots. Supporting Actor doesn't even have a frontrunner let alone a definitive list of who could get in. I'm all aboard that Stalloscar train right now. Best Supporting Actress: 1. Rooney Mara 2. Alicia Vikander 3. Jennifer Jason Leigh 4. Kate Winslet 5. Jane Fonda Spoilers: Elizabeth Banks, Joan Allen, Rachel McAdams Best Original Screenplay: 1. Spotlight 2. Inside Out 3. Joy 4. The Hateful Eight 5. Bridge of Spies This is the easiest category of the year for nominations. I've been on the IO train of thought for a while but my mind is telling me Spotlight is the frontrunner right now. Best Adapted Screenplay: 1. The Martian 2. Steve Jobs 3. Carol 4. The Revenant 5. Brooklyn Spoilers: Creed, Room This is one that could go in any direction. Animated Feature: 1. Inside Out 2. Anomalisa 3. The Good Dinosaur 4. The Peanuts Movie 5. When Marnie Was There Spoiler: Shaun the Sheep Cinematography: 1. The Revenant 2. Mad Max 3. The Hateful Eight 4. Carol 5. The Martian Spoilers: Star Wars, Sicario, Bridge of Spies Editing: 1. Spotlight 2. The Martian 3. Mad Max 4. The Revenant 5. Joy Spoilers: Bridge of Spies, The Hateful Eight Score: 1. Star Wars 2. Bridge of Spies 3. The Hateful Eight 4. Inside Out 5. Steve Jobs Spoilers: Mad Max, The Good Dinosaur, The Danish Girl Song: 1. Furious 7 2. Creed 3. Love and Mercy 4. Spectre 5. ?????? Visual Effects: 1. Star Wars 2. The Martian 3. Furious 7 4. Ant-Man 5. Mad Max Spoilers: The Walk, The Revenant, Jurassic World Costume Design: 1. Cinderella 2. Crimson Peak 3. Carol 4. Mad Max 5. Brooklyn Spoilers: The Danish Girl, Star Wars Makeup: 1. Mad Max 2. Star Wars 3. Black Mass Spoiler: The Danish Girl Production Design: 1. Crimson Peak 2. Cinderella 3. Star Wars 4. Carol 5. The Martian Spoilers: Mad Max, Brooklyn Sound Editing: 1. Star Wars 2. Mad Max 3. The Martian 4. The Revenant 5. Inside Out Spoiler: The Hateful Eight Sound Mixing: 1. The Martian 2. Star Wars 3. The Revenant 4. Mad Max 5. The Hateful Eight Spoiler: Inside Out Total nominations (predicted wins bolded): 10: The Martian (Picture, Director, Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing) 9: The Revenant (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing) 7: Carol (Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Production Design), Mad Max (Cinematography, Editing, Costume Design, Makeup, Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing) 6: The Hateful Eight (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Sound Mixing), Spotlight (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor x2, Original Screenplay, Editing), Star Wars (Score, Production Design, Makeup, Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing) 5: Bridge of Spies (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Score), Inside Out (Picture, Original Screenplay, Animated Feature, Score, Sound Editing) Joy (Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing), 4: Steve Jobs (Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Score) 3: Brooklyn (Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design) 2: Cinderella (Production Design, Costume Design), Creed (Supporting Actor, Song), Crimson Peak (Production Design, Costume Design), The Danish Girl (Actor, Supporting Actress), Furious 7 (Song, Visual Effects) I think this is going to be another 2012 where the wins are spread wide across movies. Edited November 29, 2015 by WrathOfHan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
