2015 Best Picture predictions!

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Well, I think it's gonna get nominated. Maybe not win, but this is should be a pretty easy nom for the academy. The franchise has the pedigree, the reviews are great, and it's going to be one of the biggest movies of all time at the box office. I may have jumped the gun in TFA thread saying it would win, but can you blame the excitement getting the best of me?  This surely will have its fans in the Academy. Disney is probably already set for an awards push.

Edited December 16, 2015 by Jayhawk the Hutt

[The Panda]

The Force Awakens Oscar nomination?!?!?

 

[WrathOfHan]

Sure, it can get nominated, but win? Let's wait for PGA first.

[Alpha]

Yeah, I think it's safe to say SW7 is a contender for BP. Like Jay said, it'll definitely have it's fans in the Academy. It's different from other blockbusters because it's a cross-generational event, and I could see plenty of voters putting it at #1 on their ballots.

 

[TStechnij]

Simmer down guys. Talk about reactionary. 

 

That being said, The Martian is done. No way the third best received blockbuster of the year gets awards traction. It simply happened out of necessity and now there are far more suitable contenders. 

[WrathOfHan]

29 minutes ago, TStechnij said:

Simmer down guys. Talk about reactionary. 

 

That being said, The Martian is done. No way the third best received blockbuster of the year gets awards traction. It simply happened out of necessity and now there are far more suitable contenders. 

It's still getting nominated and Ridley is still a viable contender. 

[TStechnij]

I highly doubt it. There is no hype and there hasn't been any campaigning since AFI. It is in that bubble zone with Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, and no Star Wars. It is falling soooooo fast. 

 

As per usual, the pundits are about three weeks behind though. 

[Cmasterclay]

30 minutes ago, TStechnij said:

Simmer down guys. Talk about reactionary. 

 

That being said, The Martian is done. No way the third best received blockbuster of the year gets awards traction. It simply happened out of necessity and now there are far more suitable contenders. 

I think you calling The Martian "done" and saying that the Big Short might be favorited over Spotlight and saying that Hateful Eight, with its sterling reviews, "never had a chance" to get in, all seems pretttty reactionary. I'm all cool with those opinions but it seems like you're expressing them as facts. 

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, TStechnij said:

I highly doubt it. There is no hype and there hasn't been any campaigning since AFI. It is in that bubble zone with Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, and no Star Wars. It is falling soooooo fast. 

 

As per usual, the pundits are about three weeks behind though. 

The SAG snub killed it's chances at winning but it's still in the Top 5.

[TStechnij]

16 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I think you calling The Martian "done" and saying that the Big Short might be favorited over Spotlight and saying that Hateful Eight, with its sterling reviews, "never had a chance" to get in, all seems pretttty reactionary. I'm all cool with those opinions but it seems like you're expressing them as facts. 

Do I really need to put "I think" in front of all of my posts? This is a forum, I'm just expressing my opinion and I'm sorry that it is coming off high and mighty. That isn't my intention. 

I will admit The Hateful Eight thing was a little early, but I do think Weinstein killed its BP chances. It could've gotten in fairly easily, but between QT refusing screeners and Weinstein making the release date so late, it just kind of got lost. The reviews are way stronger than I anticipated and the Metacritic score doesn't really match with what I've read. That being said, I hear Tarantino and indulgent in the same sentence and I go "Yikes." Other people hear that and go "Fuck yeah! Sounds like fun."

I don't know about the dismissal of The Big Short being the frontrunner though. I was at a screening of that populated with voters and the reaction was amazing. We've said Spotlight is a weak frontrunner since September, saying The Big Short could be ahead isn't reactionary. It is just possible, and that's all I was trying to make known. 

I will admit my first post about The Martian used really firm language. I just mean that I don't see it in the top 5 anymore, and it is barely hanging on to a spot in director. That is kind of surprising since it was the director frontrunner for a good month, no?

Edited December 16, 2015 by TStechnij

[Cmasterclay]

I can see all of those points, but honestly, I disagree with Spotlight being a "weak frontrunner." I've been saying it's a strong frontrunner for months, and so have alot of other people. I respect your opinions on here, but I honestly think you have and continue to allow your personal feelings on Spotlight to cloud your judgement on this. It's sweeping all the critics awards. It's the only Best Pic contender (except Big Short) to show up at SAG. It's shown up big at all the major award shows AND all the early critical ones in equal measure. It's the only movie consistently showing up everywhere, it has an Academy friendly topic, it's about competent people doing a job well, and it's the right balance of "edgy" and safe. Honestly, it's not looking like Boyhood or Social Network. It's looking much more like The Artist or Slumdog. It's a crazy and confused year, but I think that the frontrunner is clear. It seems like a juggernaut. I'd love for it to be more interesting, but I just think all pieces of evidence points to it being a clear, decisive frontrunner. 

[WrathOfHan]

6 minutes ago, TStechnij said:

Do I really need to put "I think" in front of all of my posts? This is a forum, I'm just expressing my opinion and I'm sorry that it is coming off high and mighty. That isn't my intention. 

I will admit The Hateful Eight thing was a little early, but I do think Weinstein killed its BP chances. It could've gotten in fairly easily, but between QT refusing screeners and Weinstein making the release date so late, it just kind of got lost. The reviews are way stronger than I anticipated and the Metacritic score doesn't really match with what I've read. That being said, I hear Tarantino and indulgent in the same sentence and I go "Yikes." Other people hear that and go "Fuck yeah! Sounds like fun."

I don't know about the dismissal of The Big Short being the frontrunner though. I was at a screening of that populated with voters and the reaction was amazing. We've said Spotlight is a weak frontrunner since September, saying The Big Short could be ahead isn't reactionary. It is just possible, and that's all I was trying to make known. 

I will admit my first post about The Martian used really firm language. I just mean that I don't see it in the top 5 anymore, and it is barely hanging on to a spot in director. That is kind of surprising since it was the director frontrunner for a good month, no?

Still is. Realistically I think it's between Scott, McCarthy, Miller, and McKay:

 

Scott:

 

Pros: Overdue, it's his best movie since arguably Gladiator.

Con: Overdueness didn't work for Peter O'Toole.

 

McCarthy:

 

Pro: Spotlight has been the BP frontrunner for a while.

Con: Spotlight isn't a "Director's Movie".

 

Miller:

 

Pro: Mad Max is a technical masterpiece.

Con: If voting was still the directing branch only I could see him as second or even first, but there's going to be a section of the Academy that doesn't care for the movie.

 

 

McKay:

 

Pro: The Big Short is rising and could become the BP winner.

Con: He might not even be nominated.

 

 

 

[TStechnij]

I like Spotlight a lot! I really do. 

 

But it isn't sweeping critics awards. Mad Max and Carol both have more wins. 

 

That being said, it does look like it could be a mini Argo. My biggest concern with Spotlight as a frontrunner is how little nominations it is going to amass. Picture and screenplay are locked and director and editing might as well be locked. McAdams is fighting for a spot whereas Keaton and Ruffalo look kind of DOA. Score has an outside chance of happening. But, for the sake of it, let's say it gets five nominations-- it really can't get many more than that. The last movie to win BP on five nominations was The Departed and it won four of those. Spotlight isn't The Departed. 

Furthermore, Argo had acting nominations. It wouldn't have won without those...

 

I think this is a strong case for it being a weak frontrunner. 

5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I can see all of those points, but honestly, I disagree with Spotlight being a "weak frontrunner." I've been saying it's a strong frontrunner for months, and so have alot of other people. I respect your opinions on here, but I honestly think you have and continue to allow your personal feelings on Spotlight to cloud your judgement on this. It's sweeping all the critics awards. It's the only Best Pic contender (except Big Short) to show up at SAG. It's shown up big at all the major award shows AND all the early critical ones in equal measure. It's the only movie consistently showing up everywhere, it has an Academy friendly topic, it's about competent people doing a job well, and it's the right balance of "edgy" and safe. Honestly, it's not looking like Boyhood or Social Network. It's looking much more like The Artist or Slumdog. It's a crazy and confused year, but I think that the frontrunner is clear. It seems like a juggernaut. I'd love for it to be more interesting, but I just think all pieces of evidence points to it being a clear, decisive frontrunner. 

 

[Impact]

This has been a great year for sci-fi films, and the 2010s have been a fantastic decade for them!

Now this years winner I am not sure about though yet.

[filmlover]

There is no such thing as a "weak frontrunner" when the frontrunner is the only movie generating a collective amount of passion and support. It's not impossible something like The Big Short could jump ahead but again, where is the passion going to come from (I agree that McKay probably doesn't stand a chance at a director nomination)?

[The Panda]

I am thinking more and more that The Big Short wins and the Martian is getting consistently weaker in my eyes.

 

 

[Travod]

8 hours ago, Halba said:

now 97%, 8.4/10. outstanding considering the genre. Star wars is now equal favourite for a best picture win and should go down in the history books as  the best blockbuster of all time.

 

Mad Max: Fury Road. -painting nails pink emoji-

[TStechnij]

28 minutes ago, filmlover said:

There is no such thing as a "weak frontrunner" when the frontrunner is the only movie generating a collective amount of passion and support. It's not impossible something like The Big Short could jump ahead but again, where is the passion going to come from (I agree that McKay probably doesn't stand a chance at a director nomination)?

Where are you determine where passion is coming from? Because this just isn't true. Hell, I was at guild screenings for Joy and The Revenant last week and the most chatter I was hearing was about Trumbo. Spotlight didn't come up once, whereas Carol and The Danish Girl did. That's anecdotal, obviously, but Carol, Mad Max and The Big Short all have a ton of passion. And what is more notable is the trends. These three films have exploded in the past couple weeks whereas Sootlight has become stagnant or even fallen. 

[filmlover]

16 minutes ago, TStechnij said:

Where are you determine where passion is coming from? Because this just isn't true. Hell, I was at guild screenings for Joy and The Revenant last week and the most chatter I was hearing was about Trumbo. Spotlight didn't come up once, whereas Carol and The Danish Girl did. That's anecdotal, obviously, but Carol, Mad Max and The Big Short all have a ton of passion. And what is more notable is the trends. These three films have exploded in the past couple weeks whereas Sootlight has become stagnant or even fallen. 

Most of the time guild screening reports are only helpful in determining whether a film is going to be nominated. As someone who has closely followed the Oscars for years, I am well aware of the trends.

Edited December 16, 2015 by filmlover

[Kvikk Lunsj]

I still think there no clear frontrunner. Each of the movies that are being consider keeping missing key award nomination and all of them have cons on why the academy might not vote as a picture.