4-Day Wknd Est: AS - 105.3M, Pad - 25.2M, TWR - 24.5M,Taken 3 - 17.44M (pg 109)

[CJohn]

I think if American Sniper is rewarded, it will be BCoop, even if he had no precursors at all, not even nom, the rest of his narrative is very very strong so he could pull off a first, winning the oscar without any precursors.

At this point, it s Keaton vs The Sniper IMO.

Also, I have no clue why this movie is doing Marvel- blockbuster numbers.

But I am glad for Cooper, he is in the big leagues now and the guy waited a longtime to be where he s at.

Redmayne is still in the race and might win as well.

 

[riczhang]

I think if American Sniper is rewarded, it will be BCoop, even if he had no precursors at all, not even nom, the rest of his narrative is very very strong so he could pull off a first, winning the oscar without any precursors.

At this point, it s Keaton vs The Sniper IMO.

Also, I have no clue why this movie is doing Marvel- blockbuster numbers.

But I am glad for Cooper, he is in the big leagues now and the guy waited a longtime to be where he s at.

 

Cooper could win. Especially since he's playing a real character, which gives him a built-in edge over Keaton already. Although I still think depending on how the rest of the season plays out, Redmayne could still win. 

[Ozymandias]

American Sniper didn't got a BD nomination. 

 

It got Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Best Lead Actor, and Best Editing though, that will offset the lack of BD nom *IF*(big if) they're looking for an alternative to Boyhood.

[Ethan Hunt]

And yeah That worked well for Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit....Not!!!!!!!

There's a big diffwrenct between M:I and Jack Ryan.

[CJohn]

Boyhood is still gonna take home Director and Movie.

[riczhang]

Boyhood is still gonna take home Director and Movie.

 

Director yes, because that's definitely the place to reward it if they want to reward it, but Picture I don't buy it. I just can't see the Academy biting on something like Boyhood. This isn't 2007 anymore people. 

[grim22]

Sniper may become the highest grossing Best Picture nominee today, within 2 days of wide release.

[CJohn]

Sniper may will become the highest grossing Best Picture nominee today, within 2 days of wide release.

[riczhang]

The BP avg. has finally broken 30 million lol. 

[Neo]

Youre always ambitious and sometimes OTT with predicts for movies you wanna see, then here comes one thats not in your whellhouse, and people provide you with data, and you dismiss it. K.

Big talk there. Its that I don't see 100M OW and 250M+ like some of you. To each its own I guess. lol

[4815162342]

I'm thinking if it gets good legs, AS will be our BP winner. I still firmly believe that the Academy's on an alternative to Boyhood search because the movie is just sooooo out of their wheelhouse and we had Birdman and TIG as alternatives, but Birdman missed editing so that's not happening anymore and TIG hasn't caught on that much. But American Sniper with this massive BO could be the alternative the Academy's looking for. 

 

If it hit a bit better with critics and precursors in December I would give it a decent chance. But right now the industry seems to be swelling behind Linklater & company. If the guilds start to snub Boyhood then there could be an argument.

[riczhang]

If it hit a bit better with critics and precursors in December I would give it a decent chance. But right now the industry seems to be swelling behind Linklater & company. If the guilds start to snub Boyhood then there could be an argument.

 

I think that if it's opening this big and on track to possibly hit 300+ Million is waaaaay to big for the Academy to ignore. I see the guilds biting. At the very least I think it's going to win PGA now. 

 

And also the Academy loves St. Clinto. Besides J. Edgar and Trouble in the Curve, I don't think any of his recent movies have ever not been nominated for at least 1 award. 

Edited January 17, 2015 by riczhang

[Ozymandias]

Honestly, American Sniper beating Boyhood would be the greatest thing ever, I know its very unlikely though.

[acsc1312]

I think that if it's opening this big and on track to possibly hit 300+ Million is waaaaay to big for the Academy to ignore. I see the guilds biting. At the very least I think it's going to win PGA now. 

 

And also the Academy loves St. Clinto. Besides J. Edgar and Trouble in the Curve, I don't think any of his recent movies have ever not been nominated for at least 1 award. 

 

Just like Avatar was way too big to ignore?

[Spidey Freak]

Ugh, Boyhood better not miss out on BP after coming so close now. The upsets should have happened for Argo and/or 12YAS.

[Noctis]

An hour left of American Sniper and it's really good so far.

[acsc1312]

An hour left of American Sniper and it's really good so far.

 

Stop using your phone in theaters!

[Ozymandias]

Just like Avatar was way too big to ignore?

 

Avatar didn't get any acting or writing noms though.

[riczhang]

Just like Avatar was way too big to ignore?

 

Avatar had the genre thing going against it. That and the industry didn't particularly like it. 

 

American Sniper is St. Clinto, not Cameron, a Drama not Sci-Fi. And also American Sniper has a story, unlike Avatar. 

[acsc1312]

Just playing devil's advocate