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Impact

Best Actor predictions-2015

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Taking everything TStech says with grains of salt.

Might want to actually cite to the actual pundit/podcast.

I'll go find it. I listened to it a couple days, and found it on some AW thread. I'll be back with it. 

 

However, the pundit stuff isn't my main evidence of anything. It just helps to illustrate my point and back up my credibility. I'm wasn't sure I had to because the lack of buzz for Deep is sort of deafening. There it is also nothing really supporting his chances either. The film won't get any other noms, he won't campaign for it and Hollywood isn't rushing out to reward him. 

Even in this weak year, which is getting less weak and stranger by the day, it wasn't going to happen. Now industry officials are for sure saying it isn't going to happen. 

 

Carrell, on the other hand, has a strong narrative. He missed about two AA noms because they were performance in straight up comedies and they've already proven they like his dramatic work. He could easily get an afterglow nom and maybe even contend for the win if the early reports are as good as people are saying. 

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This post was on a board discussing the Gotham nominations, it has a quick summary of the podcast. 

 

In the Screen Talk podcast, Eric Kohn confirms Room was snubbed from Feature/Screenplay, meaning it was indeed eligible for all categories.

They also talk about how Carol and Mad Max are indeed the critics faves of the season. Kohn is much more enthused by the film while Thompson believes it will play to the Academy but not broadly.

One last thing, the casualties so far: Truth, Black Mass, Beasts of No Nation. Surefire contenders: The Martian and Steve Jobs.

http://www.indiewire.com/article/pod...eason-20151023

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Michael Caine, Youth

Steve Carell, The Big Short

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

 

Alternates:

1. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

2. Matt Damon, The Martian

3. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies

4. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul

5. Johnny Depp, Black Mass

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17 hours ago, Blankments said:

Michael Caine, Youth

Steve Carell, The Big Short

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

 

Alternates:

1. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

2. Matt Damon, The Martian

3. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies

4. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul

5. Johnny Depp, Black Mass

 

agree with above. that sounds about right

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Number of experts predicting a win/nomination on Gold Derby:

 

Leonardo DiCaprio: 10/17

Michael Fassbender: 8/22 (everyone is predicting him to get it)

Eddie Redmayne: 2/15

Johnny Depp: 2/13

Matt Damon: 0/15

Michael Caine: 0/10

Bryan Cranston: 0/6

Tom Hanks: 0/4

Will Smith: 0/3

Ian McKellen: 0/2

Steve Carell: 0/1

Tom Hardy: 0/1

John Cusack: 0/1

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16 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Number of experts predicting a win/nomination on Gold Derby:

 

Leonardo DiCaprio: 10/17

Michael Fassbender: 8/22 (everyone is predicting him to get it)

Eddie Redmayne: 2/15

Johnny Depp: 2/13

Matt Damon: 0/15

Michael Caine: 0/10

 

Depp ain't happening. People have already forgotten Black Mass came out this year and it's only November.

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Number of experts predicting a win/nomination on Gold Derby:

 

 

Leonardo DiCaprio: 13/18 (up 3 wins, up 1 nom)

Michael Fassbender: 6/18 (down 2 wins, down 4 noms)

Eddie Redmayne: 1/15 (down 1 win)

Johnny Depp: 1/11 (down 1 win, down 2 noms)

Matt Damon: 0/17 (up 2 noms)

Will Smith: 0/10 (up 7 noms)

Michael Caine: 0/6 (down 4 noms)

Bryan Cranston: 0/6 (flat)

Tom Hanks: 0/2 (down 2 noms)

Ian McKellen: 0/2 (flat)

Steve Carell: 0/1 (flat)

Michael B Jordan: 0/1 (new)

 

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Whoa@Smith! I was thinking it was possible, but wow! That seems like a movie that will be praised for acting but that's it.

Surprised nobody has Damon winning given how many are predicting him to be nominated, he would make more sense then Depp at this point.

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On November 24, 2015 at 6:36:38 PM, Impact said:

Whoa@Smith! I was thinking it was possible, but wow! That seems like a movie that will be praised for acting but that's it.

Surprised nobody has Damon winning given how many are predicting him to be nominated, he would make more sense then Depp at this point.

 

Danon really doesn't give a winning performance, but it's one strong enough to get a nomination for, as long as the Martian does well in other categories.

 

1.DiCaprio

2.Carell

3.Damon

4.Fassbender

5.Smith

 

Im still hoping Redmanye gets a snub, because Danish Girl really doesn't look like a good movie at all.  It may be, but it looks like manipulative Oscar bait.  Then again, Theory of Everything looked like that, and I liked the movie (but to be fair, most people thought it was manipulative Oscar bait).

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