Baumer's Summer Game - Darkelf #1, Grim22 #2, laguy03 #3..final words from baumer pg 95

[The Dark Alfred]

It's good to hear you guys being positive and finding a good path forward.

[Mattrek]

Your stories have reminded me of my struggles. I lost my mom to cancer in 2008, less than a year after I graduated in college (I lost my dad when I was 9). Then my brother and I were asked to leave the house that we were renting months after. I was jobless for like two years. I depended on my aunt for my finances. There was this two-week period in 2010 when I had to survive by just eating two pieces of boiled plantains every day.

I thought about ending my life but I knew it was not the way my story should end. I then decided to borrow money from my college classmate who also decided to ask help from my other friends. We met and he gave me this small but very important amount of money which I then used to apply for a job.

I got accepted in an English academy that caters to Koreans. I know my English is not perfect but I have always been willing to learn and improve my self. On my third month, a Korean mom approached me and asked me to teach her son online once they get back to Korea. I was clueless about online teaching. I also told her I didn't have a laptop. She came back the next day with a laptop with her. She told me to teach her son for a month for free as a payment for the second-hand laptop that she gave me. She then recommended me to three of her friends. In an instant I had four online students. That was the beginning of my life-changing experience.

I am now very happy with my life. Of course, just like everyone I still have dreams and wants. However, my experiences in life have taught me not to forget the things I have because of the things that I want. I am taking my time. I've learned not to rush things. I know time will come when I will be able to achieve the things that I would like to achieve.

Last February I resigned from my job as an ESL instructor (my former (and third) boss sucks) and just decided to be a freelance tutor. The pay is way better although a lot of hard work is needed since I need to find my students and sell my self. I still teach online in the evening. I am planning to get CELTA and TOEFL certificates in the future so that I can really call myself a 'real' instructor.

And yes, BOM and this forum was and has been my escape during those terrible times. I am very fortunate I found these places where I can share my love for movies and interact with people from different parts of the world. I really like this forum.

Enough with the drama. Let me be the victor of this game. lol

I'm so glad to hear you're doing so much better Kayu! Good people will prosper. It's crazy how sucha small gesture (in the grand scheme of things) can change your life around. My turning point was buying a book. It was a freaking book, it cost 10 dollars, but it literally changed my life. The smallest of gestures can turn someone's life completely around. It's incredible.

[Alpha]

Man, you guys are a cool crowd to be around.

 

Anyways, answers based on estimates for this week:

 

1) Will San Andreas open to more than 40 million? YES

2) Will San Andreas have an opening day of more than 15 million? YES

3) Will any film, in more than 2000 theaters, fall less than 42%? NO

4) Will AOU fall less than 56.3%? YES

5) Will Pitch Perfect 2 make more than Tomorrowland? YES

6) Will Mad Max fall less than 50%? YES

7) Will Poltergeist fall more than 59%? YES

8) Will Hot Pursuit increase more than 50% on Saturday? YES

9) How many films will make more than 400K on Thursday?  (I'm not spelling this out for you, figure it out.  How many films that are reported, will make more than 400K on Thursday..domestic only of course) SEVEN

10) Will any film fall more than 30% on Sunday? YES

11) Will any film increase more than 110% on Friday? YES

12) Will Mad Max increase less than 27% on Saturday? NO

 

10/12 3000

11/12 5000

12/12 7000

 

What finishes in spots:

 

6 ALOHA

7 POLTERGEIST

9 HOT PURSUIT

11 FURIOUS 7

15 I'LL SEE YOU IN MY DREAMS

 

2000 for each spot right, bonus of 3000 if all spots correct.

 

Bonus 1:  What will be the Friday accumulated gross for the top 3 films?  5000 $26.720

Bonus 2:  If you add up the drops for the films that finish in spots 2-3-4, to three decimal spots, what is your total?  So your answer will be something like 175.668%.  5000 156.200%

Edited May 31, 2015 by Alpha

[Mattrek]

Alpha baumer said for the Thursday grosses it's 7, because Aloha and San Andreas hit that mark for previews, which is why he worded it the way he did.

Looks like Hot Pursuit Saturday increase is the only potential change with MM having a very slim chance to go under 42% drop.

There's also a lot of films that haven't reported, so slot 15 is still up for grabs as well.

[DAR]

Didn't put San Andreas in my top 15 that and Tomorrowland is going to hurt

[iceroll]

Wow this thread certainly got heavy, but what amazing stores baumer, Mattrek and Kayu!

 

 

Group hug for all these feels

[The Dark Alfred]

Missed this week, will take a slide in the standings.

[Mattrek]

It looks like quite a few preseason questions can be scored.

[Filmovie]

I switched San Andreas with Aloha for the 15th position in the DOM chart at the last minute 

 

I am so proud of that. I'm totally fuc***.

[Avatree]

Tomorrowland has fucked me over. I overestimated both Clooney's box office draw and Disney's marketing power.

[baumer]

Ill be doing as much scoring as I can tonight.

[Mattrek]

I switched San Andreas with Aloha for the 15th position in the DOM chart at the last minute

I am so proud of that. I'm totally fuc***.

Holy shit, seriously? Ouch. I'm fucked with MM and Spy though. This year is pretty tough.

[Mattrek]

Looking at 20,000 this week. Would've been more if not for Filmovie. .5% off the bonus damnit.

[Wrath]

So, Answers to week 5 looks like:

 

1) Will San Andreas open to more than 40 million? Yes (54M)

2) Will San Andreas have an opening day of more than 15 million? Yes (18.1M)

3) Will any film, in more than 2000 theaters, fall less than 42%? No (MMFR 42.5% was closest)

4) Will AOU fall less than 56.3%? Yes (47.4%)

5) Will Pitch Perfect 2 make more than Tomorrowland? Yes (14.8 vs 14.3)

6) Will Mad Max fall less than 50%? Yes (42.5%)

7) Will Poltergeist fall more than 59%? Yes (64.4%)

8) Will Hot Pursuit increase more than 50% on Saturday? No (47.1%)

9) How many films will make more than 400K on Thursday?  (I'm not spelling this out for you, figure it out.  How many films that are reported, will make more than 400K on Thursday..domestic only of course) 7

10) Will any film fall more than 30% on Sunday? Yes (PP2 32.2%)

11) Will any film increase more than 110% on Friday? Yes (PP2 126.4%)

12) Will Mad Max increase less than 27% on Saturday? No (50%)

 

10/12 3000

11/12 5000

12/12 7000

 

What finishes in spots:

 

6 Aloha (9.67M)

7 Poltergeist (8.06M)

9 Hot Pursuit (1.40M)

11 Furious 7 (1.01M)

15 Adeline (0.57M)

 

2000 for each spot right, bonus of 3000 if all spots correct.

 

Bonus 1:  What will be the Friday accumulated gross for the top 3 films?  5000 26,622,607

Bonus 2:  If you add up the drops for the films that finish in spots 2-3-4, to three decimal spots, what is your total?  So your answer will be something like 175.668%.  5000 Movies 2-3-4 Were PP2, Tomorrowland, and MMFR, and their respective drops were 51.891%, 56.692%, 42.457%, which add up to 151.041%, though one could quibble over that 3rd decimal place depending on how you choose to do your rounding.  Hopefully it doesn't come to that.

[Mattrek]

The only iffy one is PP2. Will it hit 177? I think it will.

[Wrath]

The only iffy one is PP2. Will it hit 177? I think it will.

 

Agreed.  Everything else is... while maybe not quite locks (other than maybe Tomorrowland), they're all 90+% likely.  PP2 is maybe 60% likely.

[Dementeleus]

Agreed.  Everything else is... while maybe not quite locks (other than maybe Tomorrowland), they're all 90+% likely.  PP2 is maybe 60% likely.

 

PP2 is 27m away from the target and coming off a 14m+ weekend. How on earth does it not make it?

[grim22]

PP2 is 27m away from the target and coming off a 14m+ weekend. How on earth does it not make it?

 

Because it has been falling really steep every weekend, and needs a 3 multiplier off that weekend. PP2 is the closest thing in there, it may slightly fall short actually unless late legs are better than expected. 

[Jake Gittes]

PP2 faces two new comedies this weekend, JW next weekend (not good unless Universal fudges it), and won't get much help from the Father's Day weekend. I think it'll make it, but just barely. Godzilla made $26m following a $12m third weekend last year, and I figure PP2's legs shouldn't be any worse than that, but they won't be much better either. 

[Dementeleus]

I don't think JW affects PP2 any worse than any of the other older releases.