The Official 1B WW Thread

[John Marston]

ROTK had the finale effect (which DH2 proved can be quite huge) and the story was completed. The more accurate comparison would be TTT, which made 583M, and even that is the best-case comparison, since it actually continued the story from FOTR and had all the cast. TH1 is a loosely related prequel with half a story.

enough of this nonsense. Everyone knows what the Hobbit is it is not an obscure spin off book

[skykisser]

Could TA do 1B OS alone? I think it could - it is breaking records all over, it just needs China and Russia now and given how well it's doing in HK, it should do similarly in the mainland. Also I think the humor and physical comedy should translate well to asian audiences.

[Magic]

Could TA do 1B OS alone? I think it could - it is breaking records all over, it just needs China and Russia now and given how well it's doing in HK, it should do similarly in the mainland. Also I think the humor and physical comedy should translate well to asian audiences.

TA won't hit 1B OS. It will hit it worldwide though. It will probably make 650M maybe 700M OS roughly.

[Fake]

enough of this nonsense. Everyone knows what the Hobbit is it is not an obscure spin off book

You have read The Hobbit?

[Rudolf]

Batman against MiddleWorld OS

1989: 160.2 Batman

1992: 104.0 Batman Returns

1995: 152.5 Batman Forever

1997: 130.9 Batman And Robin (only BM with OS > DOM)

2005: 167.4 Batman Begins

2001: 556.0 The Fellowship of the Ring

2002: 583.5 The Two Towers

2003: 742.1 The Return of the King

2008: 468.8 The Dark Knight

absolutely no match

[Rudolf]

Batman against MiddleWorld OS

1989: 160.2 Batman

1992: 104.0 Batman Returns

1995: 152.5 Batman Forever

1997: 130.9 Batman And Robin (only BM with OS > DOM)

2001: 556.0 The Fellowship of the Ring

2002: 583.5 The Two Towers

2003: 742.1 The Return of the King

2005: 167.4 Batman Begins

2008: 468.8 The Dark Knight

absolutely no match

adjusting for $-inflation

1989: 278.1 Batman

1992: 159.6 Batman Returns

1995: 216.0 Batman Forever

1997: 177.0 Batman And Robin (only BM with OS > DOM)

2001: 685.9 The Fellowship of the Ring

2002: 702.9 The Two Towers

2003: 877.3 The Return of the King

2005: 185.3 Batman Begins

2008: 474.4 The Dark Knight

Edited April 30, 2012 by Rudolf

[peludo]

I think we should make a breakdown of each country to get an accurate OS number for any movie. At least, the main markets numbers. To make a prediction for The Hobbit you could even compare with the lower grosser of LOTR trilogy, FOTR, which did 556 million 10 years ago and without 3D. I'll give you some countries numbers:Australia: FOTR did 24 million (I've read that it was about 5 million admissions). The 3 LOTR movies are in all time top 10. The Australian dollar has doubled its value respect USA dollar. What number could make Hobbit with today prices: 50? 60? about 30 more millionChina: According BOM, FOTR did nearly 7 million. Some predictions say that it can easily pass 100 million there, and it can manage Transformers 3 or Avatar numbers. At very least, 100 million more.Russia: Again, according BOM, FOTR did 7 million too. Other predictions say that it could manage 60 million there. At least, 50 million moreEurozone: FOTR did more than 200 million there. In 2001, 1 euro = 0.9 dollar. Today, 1 euro = 1.31 dollar. That's a 45% higher. So the 200 million today would be 290, about 90 million more. I don't have into account 3D and inflation factors, because that could be compensated with a lower attendance.Japan: FOTR did 68 million. The value of yen is 59% higher today than in 2001. So it would have grosses today 108 million, 40 million moreUnited Kingdom: FOTR did 90 million. The value of British Pound is a 15% higher than in 2001. 105 million. 15 million more.I haven't looked at South America (Brazil or Mexico will make much better numbers than 10 years ago), north European countries like Sweden, Denmark or Norway, which are in love with Tolkien novels, or Asian markets which love 3D and new technologies (48fps) like South Korea or TaiwanThe examples I have given sum 320 million more than FOTR did, about 875 million. Even with a logical drop in attendance, it still has 3D, inflation and the 48fps claim. Do you really think The Hobbit has not any chance to reach 1 billion OS?

Edited April 30, 2012 by peludo

[lab276]

You have read The Hobbit?

I have, and it isn't an obscure spinoff book.

[Rudolf]

ROTK had the finale effect (which DH2 proved can be quite huge) and the story was completed. The more accurate comparison would be TTT, which made 583M, and even that is the best-case comparison, since it actually continued the story from FOTR and had all the cast. TH1 is a loosely related prequel with half a story.

The Hobbit is not a prequel! If anything LotR is a sequel to it. It just happened that that P.Jackson did LotR first. Fans know that and quality wise it will also show.

[Fake]

I have, and it isn't an obscure spinoff book.

But it certainly isn't much different for the casual moviegoers who don't know which book came first and which came later.TH1 is the adventure of Bilbo Baggins, a minor character from LOTR, and that will be the most important factor for them.

[Fake]

I think we should make a breakdown of each country to get an accurate OS number for any movie. At least, the main markets numbers. To make a prediction for The Hobbit you could even compare with the lower grosser of LOTR trilogy, FOTR, which did 556 million 10 years ago and without 3D. I'll give you some countries numbers:Australia: FOTR did 24 million (I've read that it was about 5 million admissions). The 3 LOTR movies are in all time top 10. The Australian dollar has doubled its value respect USA dollar. What number could make Hobbit with today prices: 50? 60? about 30 more millionChina: According BOM, FOTR did nearly 7 million. Some predictions say that it can easily pass 100 million there, and it can manage Transformers 3 or Avatar numbers. At very least, 100 million more.Russia: Again, according BOM, FOTR did 7 million too. Other predictions say that it could manage 60 million there. At least, 50 million moreEurozone: FOTR did more than 200 million there. In 2001, 1 euro = 0.9 dollar. Today, 1 euro = 1.31 dollar. That's a 45% higher. So the 200 million today would be 290, about 90 million more. I don't have into account 3D and inflation factors, because that could be compensated with a lower attendance.Japan: FOTR did 68 million. The value of yen is 59% higher today than in 2001. So it would have grosses today 108 million, 40 million moreUnited Kingdom: FOTR did 90 million. The value of British Pound is a 15% higher than in 2001. 105 million. 15 million more.I haven't looked at South America (Brazil or Mexico will make much better numbers than 10 years ago), north European countries like Sweden, Denmark or Norway, which are in love with Tolkien novels, or Asian markets which love 3D and new technologies (48fps) like South Korea or TaiwanThe examples I have given sum 320 million more than FOTR did, about 875 million. Even with a logical drop in attendance, it still has 3D, inflation and the 48fps claim. Do you really think The Hobbit has not any chance to reach 1 billion OS?

Attendance today are not as high as 10-12 years ago.Finding Nemo 2 in 3D won't do 950M OS today and Sixth Sense 2 in 3D won't do 750M OS, and those will be direct sequels.And it is pointless to justify a predict based on some predicts.

[Rudolf]

But it certainly isn't much different for the casual moviegoers who don't know which book came first and which came later.TH1 is the adventure of Bilbo Baggins, a minor character from LOTR, and that will be the most important factor for them.

Estimates of how many books The Hobbit sold since 1937 go from 35m to 100m and since the LofR-movies it remained in the book charts permanently.

[Rudolf]

Attendance today are not as high as 10-12 years ago.Finding Nemo 2 in 3D won't do 950M OS today and Sixth Sense 2 in 3D won't do 750M OS, and those will be direct sequels.And it is pointless to justify a predict based on some predicts.

It is hard to predict, therefore I showed in my list just how much money it made compared to the BM-series.

[lab276]

Attendance today are not as high as 10-12 years ago.Finding Nemo 2 in 3D won't do 950M OS today and Sixth Sense 2 in 3D won't do 750M OS, and those will be direct sequels.And it is pointless to justify a predict based on some predicts.

Just purely based on the exchange rate and increased ticket prices, it should increase by quite a margin over FOTR.

[peludo]

Attendance today are not as high as 10-12 years ago.Finding Nemo 2 in 3D won't do 950M OS today and Sixth Sense 2 in 3D won't do 750M OS, and those will be direct sequels.And it is pointless to justify a predict based on some predicts.

The lower attendance is a fact and I have said it in my post several times, but it is highly compensated with the exchange rate, 3D and inflation factors. Every big franchise is increasing its OS grosses considerably, independently of the movie quality and the drop in attendance (Pirates, Transformers, Toy Story or Ice Age are good examples). I don't see why Tolkien novels should be an exception, even when we are talking about one of the bigger best-sellers in history. And I insist in the exchange rate factor. In my opinion It's even more important than 3D or inflation. And today it's very very favorable.I don't think the prediction for China, for example, is pointless, but quite logical. I'll give you another example. Mission Impossible 3 (2006) grossed 10 million there, and the 4th part has grossed 100. Three years earlier Return of the King grossed 12 million. I think it's not wild to think it can make the same or even more. You only give me the reason that The Hobbit is not well-known by the general public. Maybe it is not in India or in your environment, but I can ensure you that it's very well-known OS.

[Fake]

I still maintain that the best comparison for LOTR -> TH1 is X-Men 3 -> First class. Both have some advantages compared to other,

In favor of X-Men 3 -> First class

- Strictly in the same franchise with most of the major characters; TH1 is loosely related with only Bilbo and Gandalf.

- First class was better than X-men 3 in quality. TH1 will find it difficult to match LOTR.

- First class told a complete story. TH1 will tell only half.... and almost nothing epic happens in that half.

In favor of LOTR -> TH1

- Coming off a more beloved franchise, so fatigue will be less.

- The Hobbit has a fanbase on its own (though most of that overlaps with LOTR-fanbase).

So overall, First class holds an advantage. First Class decreased 19% (excluding China). Even if I give TH1 the same decrease despite neglecting that advantage, it will mean 590M.

Market conditions:

3D and 4 extra years of inflation - That should bump the gross by ~25% to 740M.

China - Add 100M for China and you get 840M.

[John Marston]

But it certainly isn't much different for the casual moviegoers who don't know which book came first and which came later.TH1 is the adventure of Bilbo Baggins, a minor character from LOTR, and that will be the most important factor for them.

everyone knows what the Hobbit is especially in Europe. Don't you worry

[John Marston]

Attendance today are not as high as 10-12 years ago.Finding Nemo 2 in 3D won't do 950M OS today and Sixth Sense 2 in 3D won't do 750M OS, and those will be direct sequels.And it is pointless to justify a predict based on some predicts.

Huge differenceboth those are examples of potentially pointless or inferior sequelsthis is based on a book that was published before The LOTR trilogy and has huge anticipation from both fans of the book and the films

[John Marston]

I still maintain that the best comparison for LOTR -> TH1 is X-Men 3 -> First class. Both have some advantages compared to other,

In favor of X-Men 3 -> First class

- Strictly in the same franchise with most of the major characters; TH1 is loosely related with only Bilbo and Gandalf.

- First class was better than X-men 3 in quality. TH1 will find it difficult to match LOTR.

- First class told a complete story. TH1 will tell only half.... and almost nothing epic happens in that half.

Gandalf is probably the most popular of the Lord of the Rings characters. Legolas who was also popular will also be appearing in The Hobbit.

"nothing epic". POTC 4 was on a much smaller scale than POTC 3. No giant ship battles or CGI creatures or anything and the ads were pretty much "Jack's back!" And it made 800M overseas. The Hobbit can easily do that and reach 900M

[Fake]

Gandalf is probably the most popular of the Lord of the Rings characters. Legolas who was also popular will also be appearing in The Hobbit.

Gandalf will only be in the first half... he leave the adventure after a while in the book

. Legolas will probably come in TH2 or only for a small role in TH1.

POTC 4 was on a much smaller scale than POTC 3.

TH1 will also be less epic from LOTR.

No giant ship battles or CGI creatures or anything and the ads were pretty much "Jack's back!"

At least Jack was Back.... and who is back this time? Bilbo? And TH1 will have even lesser action.... nobody wants to see a bunch of dwarves walking around and sometimes running and hiding.

And it made 800M overseas. The Hobbit can easily do that and reach 900M

Yes it can do that. I have always said that. But it won't do 1 Billion.

Edited April 30, 2012 by Fake