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#ED

Weekend Estimates: JW: 102 IO 91...RTH: Sun JW 38.3 | IO 25.3 with possible upsides PG 287, possible 107M for JW weekend

By #ED, in Numbers and Data

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BK007 Box Office Gold

BK007

Posted
Posted

Focus and electric storm should be banned immediately.

 

"New" posters but snarky, with an attitude and a motive and knowledge about RTH? 

 

Some Marvel fanboys on here creating second accounts. Perma-ban should be in order.

 

Re: San Andreas to $150m/JW and IO not cannibalizing each other.

 

I think there always will be cannibalism in a crowded marketplace. Give these movies "easier" schedules like 2014 or other disappointing summers and they would clean up even more. What if JW or IO opened on Memorial Day? 

 

This should prove that, with enough confidence in your product, you can open anywhere. Studios ran away from Ultron and it hasn't set records and will be beaten by JW in a week. San Andreas is doing really well for a genre that has plummeted in popularity.

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electric storm Straight-to-DVD

electric storm

Posted
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No he hasn't. Remember Friday night, when he had to keep going up because he was still too low. So what if he was off by sub 1M on weekdays...

 

Friday being opening day? Yeah exactly... Saturday was meant to be 70-74 remember? Oops. It's nice that he gives out numbers but they're obviously not foolproof and 31-35 was NEVER realistic.

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redfirebird2008 Global Phenomenon

redfirebird2008

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Posted (edited)

39m Sat

38m Sun 

 

106m 2nd weekend 

 

I'm thinking JW has a tiny drop for Father's Day. Sub-10% 

 

It honestly would not shock me if the film has a drop less than 5%. It's the perfect movie for Father's Day and there is precedent of those kind of drops for guy movies.

 

What would shock me is if Universal is actually going to project a super low Sunday drop (less than 5%) in order to beat the record. That seems like setting yourself up for failure. But if the thing can do something very good today like $39m+, I think they have a great chance at the record regardless. 10% drop would get them there in that case.

Edited by redfirebird2008
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PDC1987 Blockbuster

PDC1987

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Posted

Friday being opening day? Yeah exactly... Saturday was meant to be 70-74 remember? Oops. It's nice that he gives out numbers but they're obviously not foolproof and 31-35 was NEVER realistic.

And that's why you take the early numbers with a grain of salt just to play it safe. His later updates are spot-on and THAT is what matters.

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Mitch Sleeper Hit

Mitch

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Posted

God. I really don't understand people dissing rth. Ungrateful beings.

yes, I have been watching for years and never joined the action (why?) but I noticed he is usually right on, can't remember when he wasn't close

 

RTH pretty much rules....

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#ED Global Phenomenon

#ED

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I am not a fan but my daughter would like it for sure, where is that?

 

NYC, AMC Lincoln Square. However the exhibit looks to be at Times Square.

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mahnamahna Box Office Gold

mahnamahna

Posted
Posted (edited)

Focus and electric storm should be banned immediately.

 

"New" posters but snarky, with an attitude and a motive and knowledge about RTH? 

 

Some Marvel fanboys on here creating second accounts. Perma-ban should be in order.

 

Re: San Andreas to $150m/JW and IO not cannibalizing each other.

 

I think there always will be cannibalism in a crowded marketplace. Give these movies "easier" schedules like 2014 or other disappointing summers and they would clean up even more. What if JW or IO opened on Memorial Day? 

 

This should prove that, with enough confidence in your product, you can open anywhere. Studios ran away from Ultron and it hasn't set records and will be beaten by JW in a week. San Andreas is doing really well for a genre that has plummeted in popularity.

Exactly... if Tomorrowland plus Pan had never been made, San Andreas took Memorial Day, Mad Max moved to October 9th, and IO took the weekend after... while something moved up to June 19th (Paper Towns or Ricki would have been great counterprogramming for JW), summer 2015 would have been fine even without JW's enormous breakout. And with it, possibly a record for ticket sales. 

 

If you balance the release schedule right and provide a quality product, people will show up and most of the films will do well. 

Edited by mahnamahna
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mahnamahna Box Office Gold

mahnamahna

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So.... Ted 2 next weekend which could be huge and then Terminator Gynesis which I'm hearing a lot of hype for, then Minions...

...then Ant-Man/Trainwreck ($100-115 million between the two OWs), Paper Towns/Pixels ($80-100 million between the two OWs), MI5/Vacation ($100-125 million between the two OWs)... July is going to be HUGE this year. Maybe even double last year's? 

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electric storm Straight-to-DVD

electric storm

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I'm not being "ungrateful" about RTH I'm merely stating facts. He underestimated the opening day but since then has been overestimating JW even with the lower end of his estimates. You can't deny this. For the record I would like nothing better than for it to beat Avengers.

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kayumanggi Cinematic Universe

kayumanggi

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yes, I have been watching for years and never joined the action (why?) but I noticed he is usually right on, can't remember when he wasn't close

 

RTH pretty much rules....

 

And we don't have any right to be rude even if he make mistakes. It is NOT his job to come here and update us with numbers.

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Ethan Hunt Global Phenomenon

Ethan Hunt

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...then Ant-Man/Trainwreck ($100-115 million between the two OWs), Paper Towns/Pixels ($80-100 million between the two OWs), MI5/Vacation ($100-125 million between the two OWs)... July is going to be HUGE this year. Maybe even double last year's?

I'm not sure about that Ant Man/Teainwreck weekend (maybe 70M between the two) but I do think you might be low on MI5/ Vacation though

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