Tuesday Actuals: Jurassic World - 13.13M | Inside Out 13.04M

[Infernus]

Unless it turns out to be actually goundbreaking or a clear achievement of its genre, there's no wat it will make as much OS as FF7, JW or AOU. 800m, in my opinion, would be a gret result for it OS and I think even that is a bit optimistic. The only place outside Dom where it would be a mega hit will be europe. Asia (except for a few east asian markets which were developed and open enough at the time for the original trilogy to be popular their) and Latin American markets won't give this much money and they, what with the exchange rate problems in europe and Japan, are very important for any movie aiming high OS.

[JennaJ]

Yeah, depending on how well Ted 2 opens, I could see any one of these three movies at #1 this week.

Edited June 24, 2015 by JennaJ

[CJohn]

SHIT. Guess the crumbling has begun. 

[baumer]

Ted 2 is coming in below $50. I've got a feeling.

 

But why?  Why would it?  How is the WOM on the first one so terrible that this will open that much lower?

 

It had a 4X which hardly indicates bad WOM plus the sequel is striking while Ted is still very much relevant.  You could be right of course, but I don't see the logic in it.

[JennaJ]

SHIT. Guess the crumbling has begun. 

 

Did you notice how you're the only one still using that term non-sarcastically?

[Chaz]

But why? Why would it? How is the WOM on the first one so terrible that this will open that much lower?

It had a 4X which hardly indicates bad WOM plus the sequel is striking while Ted is still very much relevant. You could be right of course, but I don't see the logic in it.

Seth MacFarlane fatigue.

[baumer]

Unless it turns out to be actually goundbreaking or a clear achievement of its genre, there's no wat it will make as much OS as FF7, JW or AOU. 800m, in my opinion, would be a gret result for it OS and I think even that is a bit optimistic. The only place outside Dom where it would be a mega hit will be europe. Asia (except for a few east asian markets which were developed and open enough at the time for the original trilogy to be popular their) and Latin American markets won't give this much money and they, what with the exchange rate problems in europe and Japan, are very important for any movie aiming high OS.

 

Why do you guys think the overseas market for SW is soft?  It's not on the same plain as Potter and some of the true giants, but 800 mill overseas is a good amount.  And if it were to gross 1.4 billion, I think that's a terrific amount.  I personally think it can go higher but 800 mill overseas is still quite huge.  That's approaching Avengers type money.

[baumer]

Did you notice how you're the only one still using that term non-sarcastically?

 

You know he is being sarcastic, don't you?

[JennaJ]

You know he is being sarcastic, don't you?

 

Is he? I'm not sure to be honest.

I know he liked the movie but I've seen some posts where it felt like he's taking things more negatively than most regarding this movie's performance.

 

If he was being sarcastic on this one, my bad.

[Infernus]

Why do you guys think the overseas market for SW is soft? It's not on the same plain as Potter and some of the true giants, but 800 mill overseas is a good amount. And if it were to gross 1.4 billion, I think that's a terrific amount. I personally think it can go higher but 800 mill overseas is still quite huge. That's approaching Avengers type money.

Thats what I said - 800m would be an amazing result for it.

[Jack]

I think it is you that is under estimating it. TPM grossed 550 million in 1999. That's without 3D and without IMAX. Then when rereleased in 3D it grossed another 60 million. There is a big following for SW internationally and the markets have expanded. So I'm not sure why it's delusional to think that this new film can gross a billion dollars internationally. And if it can hit 550-600 mill domestically, it will do about 1.6 billion. Record breaking? Maybe not. But a huge gross nonetheless.

Agree with all your reasons above. Except that we haven't yet seen the whole movie. If it is as good as TPM then your estimates would be reasonable. But if it turns out otherwise it could do below $500m dom and $1.5b WW. But based on the trailers we have seen so far, I can understand why some people think it would not turn out as big as TPM in terms of WOM.

[baumer]

Is he? I'm not sure to be honest.

I know he liked the movie but I've seen some posts where it felt like he's taking things more negatively than most regarding this movie's performance.

 

If he was being sarcastic on this one, my bad.

 

He is joking.

 

Cjohn is one of the guys who truly understands box office on this site.  He's kidding, I assure you.

[vonGneisenau]

Agree with all your reasons above. Except that we haven't yet seen the whole movie. If it is as good as TPM then your estimates would be reasonable. But if it turns out otherwise it could do below $500m dom and $1.5b WW. But based on the trailers we have seen so far, I can understand why some people think it would not turn out as big as TPM in terms of WOM.

TPM good?

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

This is gonna be a really long 6 months.

[Infernus]

Agree with all your reasons above. Except that we haven't yet seen the whole movie. If it is as good as TPM then your estimates would be reasonable. But if it turns out otherwise it could do below $500m dom and $1.5b WW. But based on the trailers we have seen so far, I can understand why some people think it would not turn out as big as TPM in terms of WOM.

Oh yeah....I forgot how TPM is regarded one of the best movies of all time. And its awesome WOM... If anything, I believe that TFA should make billions simply because of being connected to that one movie, because of all the love pouring out from it.

Edited June 24, 2015 by Infernus

[mahnamahna]

JW has a third weekend at #1 in the bag. This is the biggest jump for a Pixar film's first Tuesday in June:

Inside Out: +25%

MU: +7.5%

Ratatouille: +4%

Cars 2: +1.9%

Brave: -.2%

TS3: -3%

Cars: -10%

Wall-E: -14%

I think this backs up the idea that this isn't a frontloaded, typical Pixar release. Sellouts from this weekend will help it from now until Minions. 

 

If it's holding better than every other June Pixar release by a large margin (MU had the same Discount Tuesday boost as IO), I don't see how it misses a 4x. Especially if it holds better than expected this weekend ($55-60 million 2nd weekend, with a 25% drop over the July 4th frame). Even with Minions hitting, I think IO should hold well the rest of the summer. It'll have enough WOM among adults to hold until August IMO.

[JennaJ]

My thing with IO is that while I loved it and recommended it to my family, I would not take a child to see it. Strangely enough I think it appeals a lot more to adults than to kids.

[Chaz]

I think this backs up the idea that this isn't a frontloaded, typical Pixar release. Sellouts from this weekend will help it from now until Minions.

If it's holding better than every other June Pixar release by a large margin (MU had the same Discount Tuesday boost as IO), I don't see how it misses a 4x. Especially if it holds better than expected this weekend ($55-60 million 2nd weekend, with a 25% drop over the July 4th frame). Even with Minions hitting, I think IO should hold well the rest of the summer. It'll have enough WOM among adults to hold until August IMO.

Still too early to tell. It had one of Pixar's steepest first Monday drops yesterday. Edited June 24, 2015 by Chaz

[JohnnyGossamer]

Why do you guys think the overseas market for SW is soft?  It's not on the same plain as Potter and some of the true giants, but 800 mill overseas is a good amount.  And if it were to gross 1.4 billion, I think that's a terrific amount.  I personally think it can go higher but 800 mill overseas is still quite huge.  That's approaching Avengers type money.

Yeah, baumer, not getting it either. I think the absolute floor for Episdoe VII is $500M+ DOM and $900M+ OS. People are goofy. Star Wars will play huge in Europe, Asia and South America.

[kayumanggi]

My thing with IO is that while I loved it and recommended it to my family, I would not take a child to see it. Strangely enough I think it appeals a lot more to adults than to kids.

 

I've said this many times. It's actually a film for adults in disguise. Ha ha.