Tuesday Actuals: Jurassic World - 13.13M | Inside Out 13.04M

[zackzack]

Universal didn't bankroll Seventh Son, they merely acquired it for distribution in the Legendary Pictures deal. The marketing campaign was muted and it grossed over $100 million globally so Universal still at least broke even there. Blackhat was their flop, but 50SOG obliterated that loss.

 

I am a big fan of Michael Mann, but Blackhat is just wrong on so many levels. The story is damn interesting but everything about it so uninspired. Universal could turn it into a mid range hit like Taken. 

Edited June 24, 2015 by zackzack

[VGPOP]

Another +$4.6 million ahead of Avengers.

[Jessie]

Forgive me, I didn't realize that Avatar (the highest grossing movie of all time) wasn't a potential big opener when it opened on 12/18. And you are delusional if you think the holidays doesn't effect December's OW. And Star Wars movies opens big, but not massive:

 

 

 

RankTitle (click to view)StudioGross / TheatersOpening / TheatersDate1

Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace

Fox

$431,088,295

3,126

$64,820,970

2,970

5/19/99

2

Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith

Fox

$380,270,577

3,663

$108,435,841

3,661

5/19/05

3

Star Wars

Fox

$307,263,857

1,750

$1,554,475

43

5/25/77

4

Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones

Fox

$302,191,252

3,161

$80,027,814

3,161

5/16/02

5

Return of the Jedi

Fox

$252,583,617

1,764

$23,019,618

1,002

5/25/83

6

The Empire Strikes Back

Fox

$209,398,025

1,278

$4,910,483

126

5/21/80

7

Star Wars (Special Edition)(Re-release)

Fox

$138,257,865

2,375

$35,906,661

2,104

1/31/97

8

The Empire Strikes Back (Special Edition)(Re-release)

Fox

$67,597,694

2,322

$21,975,993

2,111

2/21/97

9

Return of the Jedi (Special Edition)(Re-release)

Fox

$45,470,437

2,111

$16,293,531

2,111

3/14/97

10

Star Wars: The Clone Wars

WB

$35,161,554

3,452

$14,611,273

3,452

8/15/08

11

Star Wars (Re-issue)(Re-release)

Fox

$15,476,285

1,070

$3,766,803

1,070

8/13/82

12

The Empire Strikes Back (Re-issue)(Re-release)

Fox

$13,276,241

1,006

$3,949,478

992

11/19/82

13

Return of the Jedi (Re-issue)(Re-release)

Fox

$11,252,123

894

$3,209,056

849

3/29/85

14

Attack of the Clones: The IMAX Experience (IMAX)(Re-release)

Fox

$8,485,488

58

$1,435,259

58

11/1/02

TOTAL:$2,217,773,310----AVERAGE:$158,412,3792,002$27,422,6611,694-

Adjust that chart and factor in 3d and Wednesday releases and every Star Wars prequel opened big. Hell TPM would have taken the OW record had it been released on a Friday (funnily enough, from a jurassic park movie). They all have an adjusted OW of over 100M despite neither being released on the Friday. ROTS has an adjusted 4 day gross of 200m and the OD record, all this without your typical larger theatre count and 3D subcharge. How can you say they haven't opened big?

And you're using Avatar as your example? An original sci fi movie which was only massively hyped on the internet which despite not being part of any existing property, was able to break the OW record for a December pretty much proving my point that December has been seriously lacking in big opening movies. It's not because December doesn't allow big openings, we have nothing to prove that. The only movies released in December that had potential for big openings were LOTR trilogy and they were released over 10 years ago on a Wednesday.

Now anyways this is my prediction, if you think it's stupid then fair enough. Calling me delusional is a little premature because if it came through then you'd look pretty silly. Wait till after the movies release before making the snarky comments

[Jessie]

Lol if Star Wars opens to 221m in December, then avatar is utterly fucked with holiday legs and virtually no competition for 2 months

I think it would still fall short.

[baumer]

So, about 14% jump for JW, and nice 25% increase for IO if my math is right.

nevermind....my mistake

Edited June 24, 2015 by baumer

[CoolioD1]

so et is probs getting kicked out of the domestic top ten today. i know adjusting for inflation and all that, but damn. 33 years.

[Infernus]

so et is probs getting kicked out of the domestic top ten today. i know adjusting for inflation and all that, but damn. 33 years.

Yeah feels bad.... It even maintained (and then lost and regained) the top position for a long time till Titanic.

[zackzack]

Adjust that chart and factor in 3d and Wednesday releases and every Star Wars prequel opened big. Hell TPM would have taken the OW record had it been released on a Friday (funnily enough, from a jurassic park movie). They all have an adjusted OW of over 100M despite neither being released on the Friday. ROTS has an adjusted 4 day gross of 200m and the OD record, all this without your typical larger theatre count and 3D subcharge. How can you say they haven't opened big?

And you're using Avatar as your example? An original sci fi movie which was only massively hyped on the internet which despite not being part of any existing property, was able to break the OW record for a December pretty much proving my point that December has been seriously lacking in big opening movies. It's not because December doesn't allow big openings, we have nothing to prove that. The only movies released in December that had potential for big openings were LOTR trilogy and they were released over 10 years ago on a Wednesday.

Now anyways this is my prediction, if you think it's stupid then fair enough. Calling me delusional is a little premature because if it came through then you'd look pretty silly. Wait till after the movies release before making the snarky comments

 

Avatar had the benefit of 3D, the novelty of it. I don't think its insane success can be replicated. 

That's why it takes James Cameron more than a few years to bring a new elevated experience.

[Jessie]

Avatar had the benefit of 3D, the novelty of it. I don't think its insane success can be replicated. 

That's why it takes James Cameron more than a few years to bring a new elevated experience.

Agreed but I don't see the relevance to my post lol

[scoobysaurus]

lol Star Wars isn't going to break any record. I'm surprised there still isn't a club for AOU over TFA WW. Dont know about the US gross but I think SW fans are being a bit delusional about it's OS prospects. I really think we should keep our expectations in check because at this rate some members here will be really disappointed even if the movie performs well but less than what they wanted it to do.

[mahnamahna]

After JP4 jumped over 60% last Friday and over 30% last Saturday, I'm not so sure about that. Other June Pixar films haven't been able to match those kind of jumps.

 

To be fair, Inside Out also had more sellouts than Ratatouille, WALL-E, Cars 1/2, or Brave. And unlike JW, 40% of IO's audience is kids who can't drive themselves to the theater. 

 

This month has shown it doesn't follow BO standards, either. 

 

Therefore, it's reasonable to assume IO might get more of a boost from weekend spillover and no new competition, whereas Ted 2 is from the same studio as JW and has more appeal with adults/teens than IO. 

 

Either way, I'm thinking $70 million for Ted 2, $60 million for JW, and $55 million for IO. Another $200 million+ weekend - nothing to complain about on these forums other than "JW is going to miss Avatar!!!" 

Yeah I know its not locked, but im expecting a near 700m finish for Star Wars.

221m OW

 

70m weekdays

 

100m 2nd weekend

 

83m weekdays

 

53m Weekend then its back to normal weekdays and weekend drops and around 690-700m finish.

I'm a bullish predictor, but those are some HORRIBLE Christmas/New Year's Legs. Only $75-85 million after a $53 million 3rd weekend... really bad lol. Especially since it has no major competition until Jan 29/Feb 12. 

 

If SW7 actually does $200-220 million OW ($150-170 million more likely), it's not going to have a 50-60% drop its next weekend even with frontloading. More like 40-45%, and then 25-30% over New Year's. 

 

With $220 million OW, $120 million 2nd weekend (with $100 million weekdays), and $85 million 3rd weekend (with $90 million weekdays) - SW7 is at $615 million. 

 

$40 million 4th weekend ($679 million) 

$28 million/$36 million 5th weekend ($729 million)

$17 million 6th weekend ($751 million)

$11 million 7th weekend ($768 million)

$6 million 8th weekend ($777 million)

$2.5 million/$3.5 million 9th weekend ($781  million)

 

$790 million-795 mlilion DOM finish

 

Sorry but I just don't see $220 million OW when Christmas is the week after, and Heart of the Sea is the weekend before (likely to do $25-35 million OW). Expect $150-160 million OW with a 4.5x-5x multi than a $200-220 million OW with a 3x. That time of year is leggy. As long as SW7 is a stellar continuation of the franchise rather than dull like the new Hobbit trilogy, it'll have legs. 

Edited June 24, 2015 by mahnamahna

[baumer]

lol Star Wars isn't going to break any record. I'm surprised there still isn't a club for AOU over TFA WW. Dont know about the US gross but I think SW fans are being a bit delusional about it's OS prospects. I really think we should keep our expectations in check because at this rate some members here will be really disappointed even if the movie performs well but less than what they wanted it to do.

 

I think it is you that is under estimating it.  TPM grossed 550 million in 1999.  That's without 3D and without IMAX.  Then when rereleased in 3D it grossed another 60 million.  There is a big following for SW internationally and the markets have expanded.  So I'm not sure why it's delusional to think that this new film can gross a billion dollars internationally.  And if it can hit 550-600 mill domestically, it will do about 1.6 billion.  Record breaking?  Maybe not.  But a huge gross nonetheless.

[Jessie]

I'm just predicting it's gross. I don't particularly care about the saga, nor am I overly excited for this installment so I won't be disappointed if this movie earns less than my prediction, it doesn't effect me in any way. I just feel it's going to be huge.

[Jessie]

I'm a bullish predictor, but those are some HORRIBLE Christmas/New Year's Legs. Only $75-85 million after a $53 million 3rd weekend... really bad lol. Especially since it has no major competition until Jan 29/Feb 12. 

 

If SW7 actually does $200-220 million OW ($150-170 million more likely), it's not going to have a 50-60% drop its next weekend even with frontloading. More like 40-45%, and then 25-30% over New Year's. 

 

With $220 million OW, $120 million 2nd weekend (with $100 million weekdays), and $85 million 3rd weekend (with $90 million weekdays) - SW7 is at $615 million. 

 

$40 million 4th weekend ($679 million) 

$28 million/$36 million 5th weekend ($729 million)

$17 million 6th weekend ($751 million)

$11 million 7th weekend ($768 million)

$6 million 8th weekend ($777 million)

$2.5 million/$3.5 million 9th weekend ($781  million)

 

$790 million-795 mlilion DOM finish

 

Sorry but I just don't see $220 million OW when Christmas is the week after, and Heart of the Sea is the weekend before (likely to do $25-35 million OW). Expect $150-160 million OW with a 4.5x-5x multi than a $200-220 million OW with a 3x. That time of year is leggy. As long as SW7 is a stellar continuation of the franchise rather than dull like the new Hobbit trilogy, it'll have legs.

Guess what, im not expecting amazing WOM

[baumer]

I am expecting amazing WOM.

[BK007]

Revenge of the Sith is a terrible movie.

Though I don't hold it against the franchise.

I've only liked the first Star Wars movie.

The teaser didn't do anything for me and I don't think it will do anything for anyone without an investment in the franchise. Works the same way for anything.

[Chaz]

JW has a third weekend at #1 in the bag. This is the biggest jump for a Pixar film's first Tuesday in June:

Inside Out: +25%

MU: +7.5%

Ratatouille: +4%

Cars 2: +1.9%

Brave: -.2%

TS3: -3%

Cars: -10%

Wall-E: -14%

[baumer]

Revenge of the Sith is a terrible movie.

Though I don't hold it against the franchise.

I've only liked the first Star Wars movie.

The teaser didn't do anything for me and I don't think it will do anything for anyone without an investment in the franchise. Works the same way for anything.

 

Except the teaser is one of if not the most viewed trailers on you-tube.  So saying it won't do anything for anyone outside of the fans is fine.  But there are a lot of fans.  So making 550-600 won't be a problem.

[baumer]

JW has a third weekend at #1 in the bag. This is the biggest jump for a Pixar film's first Tuesday in June:

Inside Out: +25%

MU: +7.5%

Ratatouille: +4%

Cars 2: +1.9%

Brave: -.2%

TS3: -3%

Cars: -10%

Wall-E: -14%

 

Except that it doesn't have it in the bag.  It could win the weekend but Ted is going to open very well so at this point JW could finish anywhere from first to third.

[Chaz]

Except that it doesn't have it in the bag. It could win the weekend but Ted is going to open very well so at this point JW could finish anywhere from first to third.

Ted 2 is coming in below $50. I've got a feeling.