Weekend Estimates: Minions - 115.2M; JW - 18.1M; Inside Out - 17.1M; Gallows - 10M; Self/Less - 5.4M; MMXXL - 9.6M; T5 - 13.7M

[Asyulus]

100 pages!

[mahnamahna]

Yes, but the competition between animated movies tends to work out in a very specifically brutal way. It's the same when two movies targeting the same demographic come out close to each other. It's hard for two animated films to not chomp at each other's collections the way an IO or Minions can avoid chomping at JW's collections. For example, if IO manages to squeak past JW in the actuals, this would be the first time in history when two animated films held both No. 1 and No. 2 at the BO.

Agreed. If it were Pixels, Ant-Man or MI5 releasing this weekend instead of Minions, IO would have done $21-23 million for the weekend. All of those are far smaller than Minions in term of OW potential (sub-$90 million) and none directly target kids like IO. Even Pixels is PG-13, which should keep some little kids from seeing it. 

[a2k]

If that's really Minions' final range ($355-365 million DOM), IO should win handily in terms of DOM finish. 

 

I know there's still some that think it may miss Nemo's $339 million, but here me out 

1. Inside Out was on pace for a $22-24 million 4th weekend if not for Minions. TS3 didn't even do that
2. For the last 7-10 days, IO has either equaled or surpassed TS3's similar number. 
3. The gap between IO and TS3 has slowly closed with each week as IO has a slightly better hold
4. IO has the rest of the summer to itself pretty much - Shaun and Underdogs are minor, Pixels isn't direct, Ant-Man should give Disney reason to fudge IO's drop next week 
5. a 4x multi from $18 mlilion would give IO $72 million for the rest of its run. A 5x would give it $90 million for the rest of its run. So $357 million-$375 million as the most likely range.
6. IO has held better than TS3 so far... I doubt TS3 would have only dropped 39% against Minions... probably 44-46%. So TS3 multi shouldn't be used - IO is its own beast 
7. With nothing major for kids until September 25th (Pixels/Ant-Man having family appeal, notwithstanding), IO is set for 10-30% drops until after Labor Day. 

It would get interesting if Minions holds better than expected (3.4x-3.6x)  . either way the odds of at least two animated films doing $325 million+ DOM in one year is almost locked. And we still have Good Dinosaur at year's end to potentially surprise. 

 

TS3 did 3.6x the 4th weekend. DM2 did 3.7x.

Even with 4x, which is the very high-end, with a 17.75m(23% Sun drop) weekend IO can do 284.25 + 17.75*4 = 355.25m.

I think that's the max. Can't see how it can go much above that.

Edited July 12, 2015 by a2k

[mahnamahna]

TS3 did 3.6x the 4th weekend. DM2 did 3.7x.

Even with 4x, which is the very high-end, with a 17.75m(23% Sun drop) weekend IO can do 284.25 + 17.75*4 = 355.25m.

I think that's the max. Can't see how it can go much above that.

Because unlike TS3/DM2, IO has no real competition after its 4th.

 

TS3 had Sorcerer's Apprentice and Cats & Dogs 2 (both bigger than Shaun/Underdogs will be). Plus, a lot of teens/adults moved over to Inception. 

 

DM2 had Smurfs 2 and Planes its 5th and 6th weekends. Both far bigger than Shaun/Underdogs

 

Shaun/Underdogs should combine to $30-40 million DOM. So they're relatively minor competition. Pixels has some crossover, but if IO can drop 40% against Minions, Pixels' $40-50 million OW certainly won't cause a 45-50% drop. 

 

IO had also been holding far better than TS3 for the last week until Minions hurt it. I think it can rebound, especially since TS3 was a little more frontloaded than IO. 

Edited July 12, 2015 by mahnamahna

[JohnnyGossamer]

Pretty nice jump for Genisys. Definitely looking at $13M+ for the weekend. Little disappointing for Minions but still pacing fie $110M+ OW DOM.

[baumer]

Are you kidding me?

 

It did $21 million weekdays. Every week of its entire run - it's done a little bit more on the weekend than it has on the weekdays, similar to JW. With only The Gallows/Self-Less, you really think it would still be doing $17-18 million this weekend? 

 

It clearly was on pace for at least $21-22 million this weekend, if not for direct competition that opened at $115-120 million. 

 

Bruno opened to $30 million and everything had spectacular holds in 2009. How would two openers combining to $15 million prevent IO from getting $22-24 million when both of them are ZERO competition? 

 

I just don't think IO would drop anymore than 25% this weekend if it weren't going against Minions. This same weekend in 2009 attests to that theory.

And clearly u dont understand the simple concept of competition. My post went over your head.

[Asyulus]

Could Terminator hit $100m?

[MinaTakla]

    Movie Distributor Genre Gross Change Thtrs. Per Thtr. Total Gross Days 1 new Minions Universal Comedy $115,202,285   4,301 $26,785   $115,202,285 3 - (2) Jurassic World Universal Action $18,116,865 -38% 3,441 $5,265   $590,655,185 31 - (5) Ted 2 Universal Comedy $5,557,760 -50% 2,171 $2,560   $71,576,345 17 - (14) Pitch Perfect 2 Universal Comedy $339,380 -40% 284 $1,195   $183,123,550 59

Our box office charts are compiled from data provided to us by distributors. To be included on our charts, please

 

 

http://www.the-numbers.com/weekend-box-office-chart

[MinaTakla]

    Movie Distributor Genre Gross Change Thtrs. Per Thtr. Total Gross Days 1 new Minions Universal Comedy $115,202,285   4,301 $26,785   $115,202,285 3 - (2) Jurassic World Universal Action $18,116,865 -38% 3,441 $5,265   $590,655,185 31 - (5) Ted 2 Universal Comedy $5,557,760 -50% 2,171 $2,560   $71,576,345 17 - (14) Pitch Perfect 2 Universal Comedy $339,380 -40% 284 $1,195   $183,123,550 59

Our box office charts are compiled from data provided to us by distributors. To be included on our charts, please

 

 

http://www.the-numbers.com/weekend-box-office-chart

 

Interesting: Minions had a a 26,700 theatre average - much better than DM2's 20,800 theatre average

Edited July 12, 2015 by MinaTakla

[MinaTakla]

Pretty nice jump for Genisys. Definitely looking at $13M+ for the weekend. Little disappointing for Minions but still pacing fie $110M+ OW DOM.

I don't think 115 million for Minions is disappointing at all - it's astounding! Even though yes, would have loved it to cross 120 +

[kayumanggi]

Here:

		Movie	Distributor	Genre	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
1	new	Minions	Universal	Comedy	$115,202,285		4,301	$26,785	$115,202,285	3
-	(2)	Jurassic World	Universal	Action	$18,116,865	-38%	3,441	$5,265	$590,655,185	31
-	(5)	Ted 2	Universal	Comedy	$5,557,760	-50%	2,171	$2,560	$71,576,345	17
-	(14)	Pitch Perfect 2	Universal	Comedy	$339,380	-40%	284	$1,195	$183,123,550	59

 

[kayumanggi]

How can you be disappointed with 115 M?

[Asyulus]

Movie

Distributor

Genre

Gross

Change

Thtrs.

Per Thtr.

Total Gross

Days

1

new

Minions

Universal

Comedy

$115,202,285

4,301

$26,785

$115,202,285

3

-

(2)

Jurassic World

Universal

Action

$18,116,865

-38%

3,441

$5,265

$590,655,185

31

-

(5)

Ted 2

Universal

Comedy

$5,557,760

-50%

2,171

$2,560

$71,576,345

17

-

(14)

Pitch Perfect 2

Universal

Comedy

$339,380

-40%

284

$1,195

$183,123,550

59

Our box office charts are compiled from data provided to us by distributors. To be included on our charts, please

http://www.the-numbers.com/weekend-box-office-chart

Im very tired with "The Numbers" site, theyre so inaccurate.

Edited July 12, 2015 by Antermanus

[picores]

Interesting: Minions had a a 26,700 theatre average - much better than DM2's 20,800 theatre average

 

DM2 opened on a Wed...

[Asyulus]

DM2 opened on a Wed...

Unfortunately...

[ladyevenstar22]

we've minioned the weekend BO !!!! bananaaaaaaaa

 

 

they deserved to be number 1 movie in america !!!!

[MinaTakla]

OW Theatre Averages:

IO theatre average: $22,919

Shrek 3 theatre average: $29,507

TS3 theatre average: $27,385

Shrek 2 theatre average: $25,951

Minions theatre average (if the numbers are final): $26,785

Edited July 12, 2015 by MinaTakla

[Bishop54]

Hope JW goes up with actuals but that's a damn fine drop. 

[Chaz]

Huge! The battle with IO will be fun to watch.

[miketheavenger]

we've minioned the weekend BO !!!! bananaaaaaaaa

 

 

they deserved to be number 1 movie in america !!!!

I'm about to see the movie to find out whether that's true or not.

 

EDIT: Well, spontaneous change of plans. Won't see this today, but tomorrow.

Edited July 12, 2015 by miketheavenger