Weekend Actuals: Ant-Man 24.9M, Pixels 24M, Minions 23M. No movie over 25M, save us Tom Cruise.

[a2k]

If MI5 opens in mid-40s or less it deserves a solid www thread. MI4 made a ton of money and even though EoT underperformed dom it had great legs and was universally loved. In this summer no reason MI5 should open less than 50-55m.

[terrestrial]

Doesn't seem to have helped it in Germany though, opened #3 fighting with some teenager zombie comedy for that spot.

 

We are a bit away from any town with a cinema, so they need (usually the mothers) to get driven to a cinem to get to see it. In my surrounding not a lot of mid-30' to mid-40 mothers even watch CBMs, so the pupils have to wait for home video or someone else who drives and accompanies them, depending on their age.

And that is the next problem, the movie is here for at (legally binding) at least 12 years old, means the only exception is, if a parent accompanies them and the cinema is one of the ones who does that possibility.

 

I never expected Ant-Man to earn nice numbers here, especially as a lot of states already are in school holiday and a lot of ppl here drive to foreign language countries for vacation = not the best time for some movies.

 

Edit: Germany place 3 = Ant-Man with over ~ 150.000 admissions, said teeny.... reached seemingly only 120.000 admissions and as such reached #5. CA 1 had 144.637 admissions then.

Edited July 27, 2015 by terrestrial

[CJohn]

I wanted 90M+ though

That was impossible, c'mon now. Lets get real here.

[kitik]

Holy shit, had no idea Rain Man made 350mm WW.

 

 

Yeah, seems like it was bigger than that.

I guess that just shows how much the numbers have grown over the years.

[a2k]

That was impossible, c'mon now. Lets get real here.

pun.

[sabrecmc]

MI5 will be interesting.  I have not heard a single person (outside of this website) so much as mention it, let alone say they planned to see it, yet I feel like it just about has to do better than those predictions.  I have to admit, to me anyway, it feels stale.  I enjoyed the last one, but at the same time, have no desire for any more of the franchise.  It just felt done.

 

Good for Ant-Man.  Saw it this past weekend again, mainly b/c my daughter wanted to see it, and found myself really enjoying it.  I keep thinking that it was almost a great movie.  Probably just too many production issues. But, still a fun one.

[JohnnyGossamer]

I honestly believe Cruise still hampers the some films from being mega hits. People still get a little hung up on his personal life, etc. It's nonsense, but I think it hurts tracking. I think $60M+ OW DOM will happen though. And, it'll have a 3+ OW DOM multiplier as well.

[grim22]

If MI5 opens in mid-40s or less it deserves a solid www thread. MI4 made a ton of money and even though EoT underperformed dom it had great legs and was universally loved. In this summer no reason MI5 should open less than 50-55m.

Especially after the past couple of weekends. I'm still hopeful of a 60M+ opening, but presales need to increase now.

[GiantCALBears]

Avengers made $8.9m in its 7th weekend. That is almost $2m more than what JP4 just did. Not sure why you would then expect JP4 to follow Avengers' dollar gross from there.

 

What you should be looking at is Avengers' 8th weekend, which was $7.177m (practically identical to JP4's 7th weekend). TA1 made an additional $19.425m from there before the expansion delivered an extra $5m+ at the end of its run.

 

So $624.08m + $20m (slightly better than TA's run from a similar weekend number) would equal $644.08m.

$645m sounds right now. Nice job man, been all over it.

[a2k]

Am In on Tele's MI5 below Mad Max club. 48m ow, 145m dom.

[GiantCALBears]

Went on a cjohn liking spree, mad world. Bet the under on MI5, F4. Bombs away.

[GiantCALBears]

Pixels way underperformed, finally people are saying no to lazy Sandler & co. Surprised me for sure but happy development.

[grim22]

Kevin, Stuart and Bob are making their masters very happy. With today’s grosses,Illumination Entertainment and Universal’s Minions is poised to cross the $500M mark at the international box office. Sunday estimates had the Kyle Balda/Pierre Coffin-helmed origins stoy at $497.8M, and actuals now put the offshore cume at $499.4M. Combined with the domestic total of $262.5M, the worldwide booty is $761.8M. The Despicable Me 2 spinoff has been the top movie at the global box office for three consecutive weeks, and has opened No. 1 in 55 territories thus far. It’s another successful collaboration between Universal and Chris Meledandri and his Illumination team.

 

But it’s not over. Minions still has plenty of gas in the tank with seven more markets to go, including China. The first DM movie never released in the Middle Kingdom and yet DM2 grossed about $53M there in early 2014. Minions travels there on September 13. Other territories still to come are Korea on July 29, Japan on July 31, Slovenia on August 13, Italy on August 27, Turkey on September 14 and Greece on September 24.

 

Other Minions highlights include passing Shrek Forever After ($753.9M) to become the 10th-highest-grossing animated film of all time worldwide and passing Kung Fu Panda 2 ($500.5M) today to become the 10th-highest-grossing animated film internationally.

It boasts the best animated opening weekend of all time in 29 territories including Brazil, France, Mexico, Russia and the UK; is Universal’s biggest opening weekend ever in seven territories; and had the biggest opening weekend of any film of all time in Russia and Venezuela.

[mahnamahna]

I have a feeling this weekend's drop won't be so good. Probably going to lose quite a few screens due to M:I5 and that film is direct competition for similar audience.

 

If Ant-Man and Pixels, both family-friendly tentpoles, couldn't hurt JW that bad, why would MI5, if it's only tracking at $35-40 million for the weekend?

 

JW might end up with a 30-35% drop if MI5 opens that low. 

F4 will open around that as well In UNCLE and Comptom we trust!

UNCLE? Anything over $20 million would be phenomenal for it if MI5 opens to $35 million 

 

Compton could end up exploding, though. 

 

I think September-December 2015 will reverse the disappointment of the last few weeks. Black Mass, Everest, Maze Runner 2, Hotel Transylvania 2, The Walk, The Martian, Pan, Steve Jobs, Crimson Peak, Goosebumps, Bridge of Spies - in terms of BO potential, that's probably the best-sounding fall slate in quite a while... I'd say fall 2015 approaches fall 2003's attendance if Jungle Book and Vacation had stayed in October. Nov-Dec look pretty solid, too. Although, Night Before really should move to November 13th. 

I wanted 90M+ though

Honestly, that was never going to happen.. $75-80 million would be the absolute best-case scenario at this point, considering the lack of buzz and its sub-$30m OW tracking. 

 

I wouldn't be shocked if Vacation's 5-day does more than MI5's OW, at this point. 

 

If MI5 opens in mid-40s or less it deserves a solid www thread. MI4 made a ton of money and even though EoT underperformed dom it had great legs and was universally loved. In this summer no reason MI5 should open less than 50-55m.

Very true. 

 

Especially since it has so much in its favor

 

Jurassic World being the last $175 million+ DOM tentpole (1.5 months ago)

Every other tentpole underperforming (Terminator, Ant-Man, Pixels)

Most of the counterprogramming falling flat (MMXXL, Max, Gallows, Self/Less, Paper Towns) 

Vacation being more of a WOM type movie 

F4 and UNCLE looking like sub-$45 million openers 

The rest of August targeting older adults or kids minus those two 

 

MI5 should be able to get a $65-70 million OW with minimal competition and solid reception for MI4. a $35-40 million OW would be just as crazy as Ted 2's OW 

[Hatebox]

I'd be very surprised if M:I5 opens to less than 60m. Reviews are good and the market feels fertile after Ant-Man's performance.

Edited July 27, 2015 by Hatebox

[Chewy]

No need for a WWW thread. MI5's marketing campaign has been pretty terrible, with most trailers/spots capped by the hint of a plane stunt that seems like a less interesting version of a fun stunt from the last movie (ready for all the stans to tell me what an incredible stunt it is blah blah blah)

 

If the movie is as good as reviews indicate legs should be good, especially without much direct comp

[CJohn]

No need for a WWW thread. MI5's marketing campaign has been pretty terrible, with most trailers/spots capped by the hint of a plane stunt that seems like a less interesting version of a fun stunt from the last movie (ready for all the stans to tell me what an incredible stunt it is blah blah blah)

 

If the movie is as good as reviews indicate legs should be good, especially without much direct comp

I am a stan and I agree 100%.

[GiantCALBears]

I'd be very surprised if M:I5 opens to less than 60m. Reviews are good and the market feels fertile after Ant-Man's performance.

At this point I'd be very surprised if it opens at/over that total. Market isn't as fertile as we head into August.

Edited July 27, 2015 by GiantCALBears

[kitik]

No need for a WWW thread. MI5's marketing campaign has been pretty terrible, with most trailers/spots capped by the hint of a plane stunt that seems like a less interesting version of a fun stunt from the last movie (ready for all the stans to tell me what an incredible stunt it is blah blah blah)

 

If the movie is as good as reviews indicate legs should be good, especially without much direct comp

 

I am a stan and I agree 100%.

 

 

Hanging off of a plane while it takes off is 100% more impressive than hanging off of the Burj Dubai, but visually, hanging off of the Burj just looked cooler.

[DAJK]

Pixels was yuck but I did chuckle a few times and the action/visuals were really good for an $88M movie. How did they pull that off?