Official Weekend Estimates |MI5 - 56M; Vacation - 14.9M; Ant-Man - 12.6M; Minions - 12.2M; Pixels - 10.4M; Trainwreck - 9.7M| Pg58

[Moviedweeb]

Titanic was never in danger of being outgrossed by JW.

 

Anytime a tentpole movie opens to over $200m there is a chance. 

[terrestrial]

It's the old self-fulfilling prophecy in Hollywood. They put out terrible movies during that time and so the box office isn't that good. Would be interesting to see what would happen if they put out some mega franchise movie in that month.

 

Not a franchise per se yet, but didn't Lego make a lot of money in February 2014?

[redfirebird2008]

Not a franchise per se yet, but didn't Lego make a lot of money in February 2014?

 

Yep. Multiplier over 3.7 after a good size opening. Maybe Hollywood will learn from that. I think it would be better if the tentpoles were spread out more through the calendar.

[Chewy]

Yep. Multiplier over 3.7 after a good size opening. Maybe Hollywood will learn from that. I think it would be better if the tentpoles were spread out more through the calendar.

 

They already are, there are only like 2 tentpole-free months this year. And that'll change soon looking at the reserved dates over the next few years 

[a2k]

Keith Simanton's articles hurt my brain.

[redfirebird2008]

They already are, there are only like 2 tentpole-free months this year. And that'll change soon looking at the reserved dates over the next few years 

 

But you look at the summer months and it seems there is one every single week, which is ridiculous.

[terrestrial]

Yep. Multiplier over 3.7 after a good size opening. Maybe Hollywood will learn from that. I think it would be better if the tentpoles were spread out more through the calendar.

 

Yes, I also think so. I don't have the money nor the time to rewatch several movies within a short time-release spread (for me expensive, as I have to drive either with the train or.. to a cinema I like or at least with the car to a semi-good one and the train with son,... isn't cheap here, the cinema ... neither), but if spread out it is a complete other situation.

 

Sometimes I am even not that 'hungry' for the next one at all, if not enough time was between the release dates.

[terrestrial]

Keith Simanton's articles hurt my brain.

 

What did he write that 'hurt your brain'? I had to look him up, beside visiting IMDb I never read anything written by him

[grim22]

What did he write that 'hurt your brain'? I had to look him up, beside visiting IMDb I never read anything written by him

Every weekend preview and wrap up article on BOM since May.

[zackzack]

My unhealthy obsession with how much this movie is still making..

 

- - Avengers: Age of Ultron BV $155,000 -53.0% 214 - $724 $457,000,000 $250 14

 

 

Pretty disappointing domestic tally. At least it hit 400m, next year Marvel won't have any film coming close to that.

 

AoU should at least hit $500M. To be frank the movie is entertaining and Marvelites pushed it to where it is but GA 

is tired of the whole Avengers thing. DC/Warner should offer something else with BvS now that the GA is getting tired

of the superhero genre. Burnout is happening ...now.

[redfirebird2008]

Yes, I also think so. I don't have the money nor the time to rewatch several movies within a short time-release spread (for me expensive, as I have to drive either with the train or.. to a cinema I like or at least with the car to a semi-good one and the train with son,... isn't cheap here, the cinema ... neither), but if spread out it is a complete other situation.

 

Sometimes I am even not that 'hungry' for the next one at all, if not enough time was between the release dates.

 

Fantastic Four seems likely to suffer from general tentpole fatigue. MI5 might even have suffered some from it for the opening weekend, though hopefully that one will have good legs due to WOM.

[Chewy]

AoU should at least hit $500M. To be frank the movie is entertaining and Marvelites pushed it to where it is but GA 

is tired of the whole Avengers thing. DC/Warner should offer something else with BvS now that the GA is getting tired

of the superhero genre. Burnout is happening ...now.

 

lol

 

Yeah the fans pushed it to 450M.

 

GA had nothing to do with it

[grim22]

lol

Yeah the fans pushed it to 450M.

GA had nothing to do with it

If only expectations had not been inflated by literally everyone. Variety, who are normally conservative with projections, proclaiming a 230M OW was ridiculous.

Legs were somewhat disappointing in the end as well, a 2.35X as opposed to the 3x Avengers had.

[a2k]

Fantastic Four seems likely to suffer from general tentpole fatigue. MI5 might even have suffered some from it for the opening weekend, though hopefully that one will have good legs due to WOM.

 

I used to think ow is out of bounds as far as wom in concerned and that wom has an affect only a few days later. But social media is changing that exponentially. Maybe it was always gonna be backloaded, but that jump from non-preview Friday is still very big for a sequel. Wom seems to be the only major factor and it would be the fastest wom has spread. Even when wom is not good, you look at movies like SM3 and their sat and sun in ow are great. Use to take a while before the effect showed.

[redfirebird2008]

I used to think ow is out of bounds as far as wom in concerned and that wom has an affect only a few days later. But social media is changing that exponentially. Maybe it was always gonna be backloaded, but that jump from non-preview Friday is still very big for a sequel. Wom seems to be the only major factor and it would be the fastest wom has spread. Even when wom is not good, you look at movies like SM3 and their sat and sun in ow are great. Use to take a while before the effect showed.

 

First time I remember Twitter having a really positive effect on opening weekend was Inception and that was five years ago. SM3 was lucky to come out before Twitter was really a big deal. Twitter's effect has only grown since Inception because the user base goes up each year.

[Chewy]

If only expectations had not been inflated by literally everyone. Variety, who are normally conservative with projections, proclaiming a 230M OW was ridiculous.

Legs were somewhat disappointing in the end as well, a 2.35X as opposed to the 3x Avengers had.

 

It's 100% fair to say the franchise peaked in 2012 and will never match those heights. Happens with all franchises

 

But the fans wouldn't be able to push one of these movies to 100M, let alone 450M

 

Disappointing run, all things considered, but it's also one of the biggest hits of the last decade

Edited August 2, 2015 by Chewy

[grim22]

It's 100% fair to say the franchise peaked in 2012 and will never match those heights. Happens with all franchises

 

But the fans wouldn't be able to push one of these movies to 100M, let alone 450M

 

Disappointing run, all things considered, but it's also one of the biggest hits of the last decade

 

I think we can literally pinpoint the moment everyone's mood changed that weekend: http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/18564-avengers-official-wknd-estimates-191m-disney/?p=2001310

 

Till Extacy made that post, it was celebration in that thread, almost like the JW thread when everyone showed up for the record.

[a2k]

First time I remember Twitter having a really positive effect on opening weekend was Inception and that was five years ago. SM3 was lucky to come out before Twitter was really a big deal. Twitter's effect has only grown since Inception because the user base goes up each year.

 

Glad you brought up Inception. Was not aware of it's 11.8% Sunday drop.

 

Also, It did not have a weekend drop bigger than 39% throughout the summer. >40% drop came in the 13th weekend and then it went back to better holds. Dream run

 

Edited August 2, 2015 by a2k

[grey ghost]

Wouldn't AOU have made more WW than TA with a better exchange rate?

Not bad for a franchise that peaked 3 years ago.

[Maxmoser3]

MI5 can increase in the actuals I hope. Anyway MI5 will no matter what hold up strong and should do about 175 million domestic or so and do impressive numbers overseas. Disappointing for Vacation holding power might just be meh, and will close about to 50 million domestic. Ant-Man didn't take a murderous dive but should still be aiming for 150-155 million domestic. Minions is still doing ok(I actually liked the movie saw it yesterday) it should earn at least 325 million domestic, nasty drops for Pixels,Southpaw,and Paper Towns. Looks like Pixels will do less than 70 million. Southpaw might not make it to 50 million but it is still doing quite solid for the Jake Gyllenhal/50 Cent boxing drama considering that this felt dumped. Paper Towns will do less than 35 million and might sneak past 30. Good to see Trainwreck holding up well still, it should make it's way to 100 million. All in all a so-so weekend hopefully we see some more sucessful openers, and some solid legs.