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CJohn

Friday Numbers: Contraband - 8.7M; Beauty and the Beast 3D - 5.6M; Joyful Noise - 3.3M

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I have to agree with the negatives on Haywire, the biggest draw in their advertisements has been trying to sell it as a Soderbergh film (which sadly doesn't mean too much to too many)You'd think with stars like Ewan McGregor, Michael Fassbender or even Channing Tatum, they would have featured heavily in the marketing, but most of the marketing have shown Gina Carano running around "in a Soderbergh film"I hate to say it, but I'm actually thinking the film will do a sub 10 million opening and end up around 7-8 mil for the weekendThe Grey intrigues me though, I see it as being the biggest test for how well Neeson can open a movie, everyone was shocked by how well Taken did, and it seems that Neeson bought himself a "January Staple" with that movie, yet Unknown was terrible and definitely underperformedSo I do know that "Taken 2" is coming out next year, but I see "The Grey" as Neeson's "Castaway"I remember hearing critics talk about how Castaway was the biggest testament to Tom Hanks' ability to sell a movie on his own, it was the same thing with Will Smith and "I Am legend", it should make for some interesting numbers

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Good point. This game may set viewing records for a divisional playoff.

I think it's almost a guarantee.. Tebow-Brady... I'm in MA so everyone is obviously talking about it here. But the Bronco's game last week also broke ratings' records. I won't be surprised to see alot things nosedive today.
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Not surprised that Contraband did great. A bit surprised that it exceeded it's estimate but I liked the trailer and had a good feeling about it. Joyful Noise seems to be living up to expectations that it will do between $10-$12mil and that's too bad because that is not enough. It had a strong last minute push re promo but most people thought it looked cheesy.

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SH2's Friday was 85.5% of SH's corresponding Friday. If the former exactly follows the latter in terms of daily changes, it should get another 30.8M for a 195M finish.Applying same comparison to Alvin3 and Alvin2, Alvin3 should get another 17.4M for 131.5M finish.MI4's Friday gross is 35.3% more than SH2's. If it maintains this lead throughout its run, then it should get another 41.7M for a 220M finish.

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We all should have seen TDI breaking out. I actually predicted a 25M OW, but that was still way lower then the actual. The reactions to the trailer were insane all over the internet and the hype on the week before is release date was crazy.Contraband has Mark Walhberg, a solid trailer with a cool music (this helps, IMO) and opened on the MLK weekend. I am starting to think that the MLK is an excellent weekend to open a movie looking at the past 3/4 years. But I never predicted 30M 4-days for Contraband. Maximum was 23-24M 4-days, I think.But if had to choose only 2 movies to see in this month, I would definitly choose Contraband and The Devil Inside.

They both look terrible. Haywire and The Grey at least have notable directors/stars involved.
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Haywire is a wild card. Marketing has been awful until recently and really has no draw to rely upon. Concept might be interesting enough, though.

You're absolutely right about the marketing. I keep trying to convince my girlfriend it's worth seeing. She says, "it might be good, but the commercials make it look so bad."
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How is the concept for Haywire interesting? It's been done before a million times.

Have you read Lexg`s rebuttal to The Pomp`s anti-Contraband rant? Best stuff eevr written. LexG basically told The Pomp his manhood cred will be revoked.
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