MARY POPPINS RETURNS | Disney | 12.19.18 | Rob Marshall directing | Emily Blunt, Lin Manuel Miranda

[ThomasNicole]

Great date... it will dominate holidays for sure

If the movie delivers, i think + $ 400M is totally happening

 

Aquaman will probably be fine and do around $ 250M [assuming the movie is good], but could do better if they moved up too

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

So are you trying to say WB would be satisfied with 100 for Aqm? Lol.

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

So are you trying to say WB would be satisfied with 100 for Aqm? Lol.

 

No but they'd be satisfied with $291M for sure

[Eric is Quiet]

Just gonna throw in my first weekend of November suggestion for Momoa one more time.

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Just gonna throw in my first weekend of November suggestion for Momoa one more time.

Maybe a better bet if we knew that the movie could open big and would have decent WOM. If it doesn’t and WOM sucks again though, then they’re better off keeping it where it is and getting the holiday legs. 

[filmlover]

Coming for those Jumanji/The Greatest Showman holiday legs.

[dudalb]

2 hours ago, cookie said:

Now all the big six have a movie out that week. What a mess.

Place your bets, gentleman, place your bets....

2 hours ago, Alli said:

Every year people panic there are too many movies in this slot, but we've seen christmas can accommodate many releases

Differnce is so many of the films are big budget films..whereas in years past it has been a mixture of big and mid budget films.

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Place your bets, gentleman, place your bets....

Differnce is so many of the films are big budget films..whereas in years past it has been a mixture of big and mid budget films.

I'd say this year it's a lot of even level films. None of these are aiming to be 400+ juggernauts, unless something crazy happens with one. Maybe MPR could be, but that's still a big maybe. Most of these are looking for 150-200 grosses though, so I think the market can support it. 

Edited July 10, 2018 by MovieMan89

[dudalb]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

I'd say this year it's a lot of even level films. None of these are aiming to be 400+ juggernauts, unless something crazy happens with one. Maybe MPR could be, but that's still a big maybe. Most of these are looking for 150-200 grosses though, so I think the market can support it. 

Aquaman has a 175 Million budget. a 150 to 200 Million take would be very bad news for it.

I see the whole idea of what would be a good gross for a mid budget film would be a bad gross for a huge budget film slipped by you.

I think MPR, if it's good,will easily win.

If Fox has any brains, they will move Alita.

[dudalb]

ANybody who thinks we are going to have some Big Winners and BIg Losers this December is living in La La Land. The schedule is just too crowded for everything to succeed.

I actually think of the big Dec 19th releases, Bumblebee is the one that the most to lose from opening up right against MPR,since it's clearly aimed at the family audience.

[Rebeccas]

2 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Aquaman has a 175 Million budget. a 150 to 200 Million take would be very bad news for it.

I see the whole idea of what would be a good gross for a mid budget film would be a bad gross for a huge budget film slipped by you.

I think MPR, if it's good,will easily win.

If Fox has any brains, they will move Alita.

A JL-esque foreign/domestic split would be like a 570m WW total with a 200m domestic take. That's decent enough for a $175m movie.

[MovieMan89]

29 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Aquaman has a 175 Million budget. a 150 to 200 Million take would be very bad news for it.

I see the whole idea of what would be a good gross for a mid budget film would be a bad gross for a huge budget film slipped by you.

I think MPR, if it's good,will easily win.

If Fox has any brains, they will move Alita.

I mean it's nice for studios to have dreams and all, but in reality AQM has like less than a 5% chance of going over 200 DOM. That won't change regardless of when it's released. 

[IronJimbo]

Alita ain't moving.

[Alli]

alita would bomb anywhere...

[DAJK]

This is gonna open to mid 30's or something and everyone' gonna think it's some ind of flop. Then it's going to have Jumanji level legs. 

[dudalb]

2 minutes ago, Alli said:

alita would bomb anywhere...

Now you have done it. He Who We Do Not Name will show up for sure....

[dudalb]

4 minutes ago, DAJK said:

This is gonna open to mid 30's or something and everyone' gonna think it's some ind of flop. Then it's going to have Jumanji level legs. 

Alita or MPR?

MPR is going to open a lot higher then the mid 30's. I repeat that a lot of the nerds just don't get the level of interest this film has among the GA.

MPR...it it's good, is the 500 pound gorilla this Christmas season. And The Mouse certainly has confidence in it, or they would not have made this move.

Or is this still anger that "Solo" did not get the Christmas spot.?

Edited July 10, 2018 by dudalb

[DMan7]

Studios tend to have insider knowledge of all the other studios films so Disney must have known something about the other films coming out around the time of MPR to realize they don't have much potential to go up against their classic IP hence the date change. 

[Macleod]

6 minutes ago, DMan7 said:

Studios tend to have insider knowledge of all the other studios films so Disney must have known something about the other films coming out around the time of MPR to realize they don't have much potential to go up against their classic IP hence the date change. 

...Or they already have knowledge that something else is likely to move (possibly because of production problems, etc.)

[Rebeccas]

7 minutes ago, DMan7 said:

Studios tend to have insider knowledge of all the other studios films so Disney must have known something about the other films coming out around the time of MPR to realize they don't have much potential to go up against their classic IP hence the date change. 

I mean even without insider knowledge we all know Alita is a flop lol