Romania Box Office

[James]

WEEKEND BOX-OFFICE

 

We just had another beautiful weekend, with two huge (and unexpected) debuts.

- Underworld: Blood Wars exceeded even the most generous expectations, opening at #1 with 45.184 admissions and $214k. That is a great debut in itself, but it’s even more amazing when you think that Underworld: Awakening, the biggest movie of the franchise before this, debuted with only 22.303 adm and $150k. WOM seems to be good, so don’t be surprised if Blood Wars ends up with over $700k.

- In second we have an even more surprising performance: Allied broke the trend of low opening adult oriented movies, registering a huge 41.711 adm and $196k opening. That is one of the biggest debuts ever for the genre. The success can be attributed to a series of factors, but the most important one is likely Brad Pitt’s popularity in the market. With no direct competition in the coming weeks and good WOM, Allied should be able to finish above $800k.

- Moana had a nice -29% hold and raised it’s total to $376k. Still, it’s total after 10 days is a bit more than 1/3 of Frozen’s and a bit more than half of Tangled’s.

- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them continued it’s strong run. It dropped 51% in face of competition, but it’s weekdays were absolutely huge, bring the total to $872k. It will fly past $1m and 200.000 adm soon enough and could go as high as $1.2m.

- Bad Santa 2 dropped 55% in it’s second outing. The total is a good $270k.

- Trolls is a constant surprise. It eased 32% from last weekend, but week to week it actually increased. It now stands at a mighty $1.04m and it should be able to beat Zootopia’s $1.3m to claim the title of biggest animation of the year.

- In seventh we have yet another animated title. Snowtime! opened to a weak (and expected) 13.309 admissions and $56k. With Christmas up ahead, it should be able to hold well and end up with a decent total though.

- Doctor Strange also had a fantastic week and now stands at $1.51m (the biggest Marvel movie ever). At this point I think it is a pretty safe bet that it will beat Deadpool and Batman v Superman to become the second biggest CBM ever behind Suicide Squad and the second biggest movie of the year, also after Squad. It will finish 2016 in 3^rd, after Rogue One arrives. Great, great result for it!

- Arrival continues to hold well, sliding 40% and reaching $447k.

- And Hacksaw Ridge closes the top, bringing it’s cume to a decent $337k.

Top 10

 

This week’s releases:

- Office Christmas Party

 - Incarnate

- Remainder

- Siv Sover Vilse

- Les malheurs de Sophie

Office Christmas Party has strong presales, so I actually think a 30.000 adm OW is in play.

Incarnate should settle somewhere around 10.000-15.000 adm.

The rest under 5.000.

[Bishop54]

Finally some good news for Underworld Blood Wars. 

[James]

WEEKEND BOX-OFFICE

 

We just had a big overall weekend (which was expected), but some disappointing individual performances.

 

- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story opened on top with $440k, coming from 199 screens, which is the widest release ever, beating The Force Awakens' 182 screens record. Because it is distributed by Forum Film Romania, we have no admission figures for it, but a careful estimation puts it at 83.896 admissions for the 3-day weekend. That is a huge 52% fall from The Force Awaken's record breaking $954k (and 175.584 adm) OW. It is also the weakest top-opener we had on this particular weekend since 2011's Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol, behind all The Hobbit movies and, of course, behind The Force Awakens. 

 

The closest comparison for it in terms of OW is The Hobbit: And Unexpected Journey, which debuted in 2012 with 88.636 adm (and $549k). That movie ended with 409.933 admisssions and over $2.5m. Rogue One won't come anywhere close to that, since WOM is not nearly as good (after only 3 days it stands at 8/10 on Cinamagia, compared to AUJ's 8.6), the ER is way worse than in 2012 and competition is huge.

 

All in all, Rogue One has no chance of defeating Suicide Squad's $2.09m for the yearly crown and I also doubt it will beat The Jungle Book's $1.81m. Actually, I think even Top 3 is not achievable (it would have to beat Deadpool's 1.63m for that). Shocking to say the least, considering every forecast had it pegged for a easy win this year.

 

- Office Christmas Party had a nice -38% hold and reached $360k. With holidays up ahead, it should at least double that, if not more. A place in the yearly Top 20 is all but assured.

 

- Sing is the second disappointing debut of the weekend, with 21.837 admissions and $98k. That is a bit less than half of what The Secret Life of Pets did on OW. Still, with holidays up ahead and it being an animated movie, $500k at least should happen, which would be decent for an original animated movie.

 

- Allied held well (-39%) and now stands at great $444k. It should end it's run with at least $700k.

 

- Underworld: Blood Wars dropped 46% and reached $448k. It should also end up with at around $700k.

 

- Moana was down 40% from last week and the total is a good $449k.

 

- Incarnate fell 48% for a pathetic $78k after 10 days in play.

 

- Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them felt Rogue One's arrival the strongest (it lost it's premium screens), falling 60%. Still, with $983k it is now the highest Wizarding Word movie ever and it should end up with about $1.1m.

 

- Trolls also dropped hard (-55%). The total is an amazing $1.09m.

 

- And Bad Santa 2 closes the top, reaching a so-so $338k.

 

Top 10

 

 

Next week's openers:

 

- Passengers

- La La Land

- Les beaux jours d'Aranjuez

 

This year, just like in 2011, Christmas falls on a Sunday, which means huge drops (60-80%) are in store for all holdovers seeing how on Sunday all theaters will be closed and on Saturday showtimes will be limited (so basically the only full day is Friday). That is why it is pretty much impossible for any movie to open big on this weekend. 

 

Still, Passengers has some very nice presales so an opening around 20.000 admissions might be possible (which would be huge for this weekend).

 

The other 2 movies should end up under 10.000.

 

This next weekend will also represent the end of 2016 as a box office year, since we are only getting weekly BO updates. That is kind of unfortunate, seeing how I was hoping for a huge last weekend to propel the yearly admissions past 13m. But we'll see. Might still happen. 

[James]

WEEKEND BOX-OFFICE

 

We just had the biggest week ever in admission, local currency and Euros and also one of the biggest in USD. That marks an incredible start for the 2017 box office year, since this past week is officially considered as part of 2017 (the 2016 BO year ended on Dec 25^th – a 2016 yearly analysis, followed by a 2017 forecast will come shortly).

- The Great Wall took first place, opening with a very good 42.646 admissions and $216k. That is especially great considering most theaters were closed on Sunday. And seeing how next week is historically one with big increases, The Great Wall is poised for a nice run.

One thing that might throw a wrench in that run is Assassin’s Creed opening this week, which will be massive and direct competition. Still $700-800k should easily happen.

- Why Him? had to settle for second, but it also had a great opening (30.060 admissions and $135k). It should easily fly past $500k and could go much higher.

- Passengers fell 41% over the weekend, but that is of little importance. Its weekdays were so incredibly enormous that it now stands at $521k and, with great WOM, it is basically locked to break the $1m border, becoming the 17^th 2016 title to do so.

- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story continues its disappointing run, easing 28% and finally passing the $1m border. With the holiday boosted week up ahead it should recover a little, but still, I can’t see it go much higher that 1.5-1.7m, especially seeing how Assassin’s Creed will take away all its IMAX and 4DX screens. If it hits the higher end of that range, it will end up at #3 for the year. If it hits the lower end, it won’t even crack Top 5. The drop from TFA will be in the 50-55% area.

- Sing recovered nicely after its awful debut two weeks ago. It increased 31% this weekend and reached a decent 294k. It should increase next weekend again and it will likely end up in the $500k range.

- Office Christmas Party fell 31% (a very good drop considering its theme and the fact that Christmas time is over) and now stands at a big $598k. It has a decent shot at cracking the 2016 Top 20 if it can hold well in the next couple of weeks.

- Moana jumped a huge 52% from last week and the cume is a very nice $647k. I think $800-900k is where it will end up (also a chance at the 2016 Top 20).

- Allied increased 1% and reached a nice $567k. It will likely close it’ run somewhere around $750-800k, which is great for it.

- La La Land is still a bomb.

- And Underworld: Blood Wars continued its successful run, bringing the total to $557k (should end around $650-700k).

Top 10

 

Next week’s openers:

- Assassin’s Creed

- Collateral Beauty

- The Snow Queen 3

- Juste la fin du monde

Assassin’s Creed has an insane amount of presales. So much so that I’m thinking a 100.000 admissions OW might be in play, which would truly be crazy. But I’ll play it conservative, and predict a 65.000-70.000 adm debut, which would be a great start in itself.

Collateral Beauty also has surprisingly good presales so I’m guessing a 30.000+ adm debut.

In 2015, the first Snow Queen movie opened to over 27.000 admissions. In 2016, the second one did about 22.000. With the underperformance of Sing, I think there is some demand for family movies so I’m going to predict about 20.000 adm for The Snow Queen 3.

2016 Top 20 so far:

***The bolded titles are still playing

[James]

WEEKEND UPDATE: Assassin's Creed is a BEAST! It's selling out left and right and theaters keep giving it more and more showtimes. If it manages to keep up this pace, it should blow past 100.000 admissions for the weekend. 

Edited January 5, 2017 by James

[misafeco]

12 hours ago, James said:

WEEKEND UPDATE: Assassin's Creed is a BEAST! It's selling out left and right and theaters keep giving it more and more showtimes. If it manages to keep up this pace, it should blow past 100.000 admissions for the weekend. 

It was also a monster in Hungary. 71k adm between Dec 29-Jan 1.

[James]

ROMANIA'S BOX-OFFICE IN 2015 - YEARLY MARKET OVERVIEW

 

Another year is done (it actually was done on Dec 25th, since the box office is reported only once a week here) and once again, the overall market increased (for the 9th or 10th year in a row). But more than that, the increase was actually way better than I thought it would be, especially in admissions. At the beginning of the year, I was expecting the yearly admission total to break 12m (and so following the yearly 1m-ish increase tradition), but it ended up with almost 13m (it would've actually broke the 13m border if not for the Christmas constellation this year)! The year also set BO records in local currency, USD (here too, it would've broke the $60m border if not for the Christmas falling on a weekend) and Euros. 

 

 

A thing to notice is that, despite beating other EU markets in admissions, the total in currency is lower because of a quite low average ticket price ($4.6 or 4.2 Euros). For a comparison, Portugal (which is the only other similar market I have complete numbers for - thanks @CJohn) made 68.4m Euros in 2016 by selling 13.3m tickets. That's and average ticket price of 5.1 Euros. Still, by next year Romania should surpass it in admissions (I expect over 14m admissions in 2017).

 

Now, moving to a more in depth analysis, let's see what made money this year: Suicide Squad won the year, also becoming the first CBM to hit the $2m border (and the only 2016 movie to do so). That was a total surprise, since I haven't even put it in my Top 10 forecast at the beginning of 2016.

 

But not only Suicide Squad did good. 2016 was an excellent year for superhero movies in general. Before last year, Disney/Marvel was holding the Top 6 highest grossing CBM's in the country, with Thor: The Dark World topping them all at $1.47m. After this year, they don't even crack Top 3 (Suicide Squad, Deadpool, Batman v Superman). But that isn't to say they didn't have a good year (Doctor Strange set a new record for them with over $1.5m).

 

Outside from CBM's, 2016 was also an excellent year for animation, with 4 movie making over 1m, as you can see below.

 

And, of course, Romania's sweetheart, the period fantasy genre, also performed well, with Warcraft and Gods of Egypt being big hits (just as predicted).

 

Top 20 at the end of 2016:

***The bolded titles are still playing

 

That being said, 2016 had only one uber-blockbuster (over $2m) this year (Suicide Squad), compared to three (The Force Awakens, Fast & Furious 7 and Minions) last year. But the revenue was more evenly distributed (no less than 16 movies hit the $1m mark last year - with Passengers soon to become the 17th one -, which beats the record set by 2013, with 13 titles).

 

The market continues to be a decently leggy one, with only 5 movies out of Top 20 failing to hit a 3x multiplier from their opening weekend in admissions (Batman v Superman, Captain America: Civil War, Warcraft, Gods of Egypt and Point Break). The leggiest movie in Top 20 was Zootopia (6.9x multi).

 

No less than 5 movies from 2016 joined the All Time Top 20 list (in USD) - Suicide Squad (#9), The Jungle Book (#12), Deadpool (#17), Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (#19) and Doctor Strange (#20).

 

HIGHEST GROSSING MOVIES EVER IN ROMANIA:

 

When it comes to 2017 expectations I'm going to put my prediction at 14m+ admissions and $65-70m. With more and more cinemas being built every year, I don't see the increase stopping anytime soon.

 

Later today probably I will have a list up with my Top 10 2017 forecast.      

Edited January 7, 2017 by James

[misafeco]

The number of yearly admissions are still quite low compared to the population. Very few movies over 500k adm. I guess there is a lot of room for growth.

[CJohn]

We still don't have complete data for 2016 here. These people are slow.

[James]

6 hours ago, misafeco said:

The number of yearly admissions are still quite low compared to the population. Very few movies over 500k adm. I guess there is a lot of room for growth.

There are actually a lot of movies over 500k, but they are all released before 2000 when the ticket prices were a joke. But yeah, lots of room to grow.

[James]

2017 MARKET PREVIEW 

 

2016 was a great year for the Romanian BO. There were a lot of big hits, but no uber-blockbusters aside from Suicide Squad. But 2017 looks to change that, with a no less than 3 guaranteed uber-blockbusters. As a little legend, so you can better understand the levels of success for a movie (pretty much what Corpse did in the Japan thread):

400.000+ admissions (Uber-Blockbuster)

300.000+ admissions (Blockbuster)

200.000+ admissions (Hit)

150.000+ admissions (Respectable)

100.000+ admissions (Commercial Success)

***100.000 admissions is pretty much the equivalent of $100m in the US.

 

That being said, here is my 2017 forecast for the Romanian market:

 

1.       Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales – $2.7m

Back in 2011, On Stranger Tides set the OW record and became the second highest grossing movie ever at that time, behind Avatar. It managed to sell almost 350.000 admissions, which was enormous back then (it still is), it had great legs and great WOM (it stands at 8.5/10 on Cinemagia). It will be a battle between this and Star Wars VIII for the yearly crown, and I’m ready to give this the edge.

2.       Star Wars: Episode VIII – $2.5m

The Force Awakens is currently the second highest movie ever, with a stunning $3.25m. Rogue One, on the other hand, will barely make $1.5m. Episode VIII should be much bigger, but I think the lack of nostalgia will make it lose some of the audience.

3.       The Fate of the Furious – $2.1m

Fats and Furious 7 is the 2nd most attended movie of the 21st century behind only Avatar and the 4th highest grossing movie ever, with over $2.7m. Granted, the eight movie in the franchise will be one of the biggest releases of 2017, but there’s no Paul Walker this time to push the movie into the insane territory.

4.       Justice League – $1.8m

With Batman v Superman grossing almost $1.6m last year (#3 CBM ever) and setting the CBM OW record, I have great faith in Justice League. It will definitely win the year in terms of superhero movies.

5.       Assassin’s Creed – $1.7m

The year is set to start strong, with what is classically the most beloved genre in this market: period fantasy/epic. Last year, Warcraft and Gods of Egypt did great business and this year the trend will continue fo sure, with my OW prediction for Assassin’s Creed standing at around 100.000 admissions (tomorrow we’ll see how much the severe snow storms affected it).

6.       Despicable Me 3 – $1.6m

Minions was a $2m+ monster.  Eve nif the fever will have slowed down, Despicable Me 3 should still be the top animation pick of the year.

7.       Beauty and the Beast - $1.6m

The highest grossing Disney live-action adapatation so far is The Jungle Book, with a huge $1.8m. I don’t know if B&B will be able to match that, but if a movie in the Disney princess cannon can do it, this is it.

8.       Thor: Ragnarok – $1.5m

Until Doctor Strange came, Thor: The Dark World held the title for the highest grossing Marvel movie (and the highest grossing CBM till Deadpool showed up). With it being a period-epic, expect it to be in the upper range of Marvel offers.

9.       Wonder Woman – $1.2m

DC is on a roll lately, both Suicide Squad and Batman v Superman being massive hits last year (#1 and #3 CBMs ever). And I don’t see that ending anytime soon. With it being a period piece and looking custom made for this market, I bet Wonder Woman will be big. The only thing that threatens it is opening one week after Pirates of the Caribbean 5 and a week before The Mummy.

10.   Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 – $1.2m

The first movie in the series had great legs back in 2014 and ended up with $1.1m, which is where most big Marvel movies end up. If the movie is a crowd pleaser it should manage an increase, but it is still a Marvel movie and, even more, it is a sequel. Those two things should keep it in the same $1-1.3m area.

11.   Fifty Shades Darker – $1.15m

Back in 2015, Fifty Shades of Grey was a massive hit, grossing $1.46m. The sequel should fall, but given the presales are already looking strong one month in advance, Darker should still make a lot of money.

12.   King Arthur: Legend of the Sword – $1.1m

When I predicted that Gods of Egypt will make $1m+ last year, a remember someone saying it won’t happen. But this is the period-fantasy genre. This is the sweetheart of this country and this looks LOTR-ish in style. It will be a big hit. The only thing slowing it down will be Pirates of the Caribbean 5, opening 2 weeks later.

13.   Transformers: The Last Knight – $1.1m

Tranformers meets Templar Knights. Perfect receipe for success.

14.   Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets – $1.1m

This looks big and fun. A blast, just like Lucy was. And that movie did great business.

15.   The Mummy – $1m

Tom Cruise + Egyptian mythology = guaranteed hit, even with a crowded schedule.

16.   Kong: Skull Island – $1m

I think this will end up in the same territory as Godzilla (2014), by selling more tickets.

17.   Dunkirk – $1m

I’m going to go big with Dunkirk, seeing how this is a Nolan movie and I’m sure it will play like perfect counterprogramming.

18.   Blade Runner 2049 – $1m

I’m gonna be balsy and say this will be the SF hit of the Fall, just like Interstellar, The Martian and Gravity were.

 

Other movies with $1m potential (in no particular order):

19.   The Great Wall

20.   Logan

21.   Ghost in the Shell

22.   Now You See Me 3

23.   Spiderman: Homecoming

24.   Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

25.   Geostorm

26.   Coco

27.   World War Z 2

28.   Lego Batman

[James]

WEEKEND BOX-OFFICE

 

The first time the weekly admission total rose above 400.000 was in February 2016, when a 401.154 admissions total was recorded. That record was broken last week, with 405.973 adm. Also last week I predicted the record will fall again after this weekend and I was right. The record wasn't only broken, but completely obliterated with the total coming in at over 500.000 admissions. And the one movie to rule them all was, as predicted, Assassin's Creed.

 

- Assassin's Creed smashed the weekend box office, by delivering a huge $502k and 91.805 admissions. Not only is that an incredible figure (above Rogue One: A Star Wars Story), but keep in mind that it was probably brought down a bit by the snow storms that hit the whole country starting starting from Thursday. In my 2017 forecast yesterday I predicted a $1.7m total for Assassin's Creed. And with good WOM and not much competition in the coming weeks it might just manage that.

 

- Why Him? had to settle for second, easing a light 6%. And with enormous week days it now stands at a beautiful $484k. $800k should easily happen and even $1m might yet be in reach! Who would've thought?

 

- Collateral Beauty performed as expected, with a decent 26.977 admissions and $126k opening. WOM seems strong.

 

- The Great Wall suffered in the face of Assassin's Creed mighty debut, sliding 51%. The week days were strong though and the fantasy epic is now at a very good $594k. $1m can still happen.

 

- The Snow Queen 3 delivered another strong debut for the franchise, with 24.860 adm and $105k. That is a bit lower than the first movie and a bit stronger than the second one. It should easily exceed $300-350k. 

 

- Passengers posted a great hold (-12%) and the total is now a strong $751k. It is still headed for the coveted $1m territory.

 

- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story lost all it's premium screens to Assassin's Creed and the hit it took was sensible (-41%). The cume is $1.21m and at this point $1.5m (and a spot in the 2016 Top 5) is dead for it. It might yet beat Dirty Grandpa's $1.41m for #6. We shall see.

 

- Sing increased a healthy 17% from last week and reached $418k. Around 600k is where it is headed. Pretty nice for Illumination. Not every movie is a Secret Life of Pets.

 

- Moana continues it's leggy run by jumping 23% from it's last outing and reaching a great $728k. I think that $850k at least will happen. Even $1m is not completely dead, but it will have to post extremely strong holds from now on, which is unlikely with schools going back in session.

 

- Office Christmas Party closes the top by easing 8%. The total - a fine $668k.

 

Top 10:

 

Next week's releases:

- Live By Night

- Jackie

- Debarquement immediat!

- Forushande

 

Assassin's Creed will easily retain the top spot, seeing how none of the openers looks to even reach 20.000 admissions. Live By Night might do it. And that is a big 'might'. 

 

After 2 weeks, 2017 is running 30% ahead of 2016 through the same point.

Edited January 9, 2017 by James

[CJohn]

2015 was very good here, growing a lot from 2014 and 2013. 2016 was somehow able to top it.

[James]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

2015 was very good here, growing a lot from 2014 and 2013. 2016 was somehow able to top it.

Ok, so maybe 2 years until Romania takes over Portugal in adm.  Or maybe just 1 if Portugal decreases to around 2015 level or so in 2017. The average ticket prince though... still way higher than here. It will take a few more years till we can catch up in Euros. 

[CJohn]

I am hoping we continue to grow in the next few years.

[misafeco]

Assassins Creed's fall will be big next weekend.

[CJohn]

AC opened big here too, around 66000 admissions. Just 2000 below Rogue One.

[James]

On 1/11/2017 at 10:01 PM, misafeco said:

Assassins Creed's fall will be big next weekend.

Actually, it had an under 50% drop and it was it stands at almost $1m as of last weekend. It's having good WOM.

 

PRESALES UPDATE: 

 

- xXx: Return of Xander Chage has some great presales so I think it will land over 50.000 admissions for the weekend (it took the IMX screens from Assassin's Creed which is kinda stupid considering that format is selling very poorly, compared to the sellouts AC had).

- Lion is also selling surprisingly decent so 15.000 adm should happen, even with the relatively limited release.  

[misafeco]

32 minutes ago, James said:

Actually, it had an under 50% drop and it was it stands at almost $1m as of last weekend. It's having good WOM.

 

PRESALES UPDATE: 

 

- xXx: Return of Xander Chage has some great presales so I think it will land over 50.000 admissions for the weekend (it took the IMX screens from Assassin's Creed which is kinda stupid considering that format is selling very poorly, compared to the sellouts AC had).

- Lion is also selling surprisingly decent so 15.000 adm should happen, even with the relatively limited release.  

In Hungary it had a big 1st weekend and an over 70% drop 2nd weekend. The Great Wall opened though and took away a lot of screens.

[James]

WEEKEND BOX-OFFICE

 

January continues with yet another great weekend, as 2017 is running 28% ahead of 2016 through the same point. 

 

- xXx: Return of Xander Cage destroyed even the wildest forecasts, coming in at 81.880 admissions and $437k for the 3-day weekend. That is a stunning debut and coupled with a nice 8.2 grade on Cinemagia, it should mean a very healthy run. $1m is absolutely locked and the question is now much above that can it go. I'm thinking at least $1.3m.

 

- In the face of xXx's huge opening and the loss of it's premium screens, Assassin's Creed fell a big 58%. Still in the process it reached $1.1m, so it's already a success by all accounts. It should close it run somewhere in the $1.3-1.4m region.

 

- Why Him? continues it's impressive run, gathering $805k so far. $1m is still possible.

 

- Lion opened a bit above 10.000 admissions. Not good, but not horrible either.

 

- The Great Wall and Passengers lost a lot of steam after the AC/xXx combo swept them away and both will miss $1m. Still, a $900k+ for both of them is solid.

 

- Sing crossed the $500k border, Moana is closing on the $800k one.

 

- And Rogue One: A Star Wars Story continues it's spiral into oblivion. It will barely make $1.3m (#7 for the year). That is only 40% of what TFA did. RO will also become one of the 6 movies in the 2016 Top 20 unable to reach a 3x multiplier.   

 

 

Next week's openers:

- Split

- A Dog's Purpose

- The Founder

- Fixeur

- The Odyssey 

 

Split and A Dog's Purpose both look good for about 15.000 - 20.000 admissions.

The others under 10.000.