Fake Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said: Good job on the extrapolation. But SW7 will benefit from buzz surrounding record breaking blockbusters that generally helps it have better legs. Plus the boost with Imax/PLF will help it have stronger weekday.I am confident it will gross > 1B. Yup..... I'm also hoping for the strong weekdays to kick in. But I will be confident only when I see 100M+ 3rd weekend and 7.5M+ the following Monday. As for legs, I'm not certain about better legs, because TTT had excellent holds to begin with (28.4% average weekly drops). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 1 hour ago, stripe said: Thanks for the comparision, but third weekend will help SW7 to gain the margin you can't see. TTT dropped 48% in 3rd while SW7 won't drop that much. Yes, the drop would be lower, since Friday will be inflated. The key will be where it is at Sunday and how it drops on Monday. If the Sunday is 22M+ (3.25x of TTT) and the Monday drop is under 65%, then we can be reasonably sure of its 1B prospects. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 SW needs a drop of ~43% or better to have a 3rd weekend bigger than the pre-SW December ow record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Being conservative, after this 29M Tuesday... Wednesday 26M (-10%) - Not a single movie in 2009 dropped that much Thursday 21M (-20%) - In line with the worse drops in 2009 Friday 33M (+50%) - Not a good jump. Avatar/Holmes increased 70% Saturday 33M - Not even increasing. Sunday 20M (-40%) - A moderate drop. 733M after a 86M weekend But I think we will see somewhat better numbers all the week 28M / 24M / 39M / 40M / 25M 756M after a 104M weekend 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quigley Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 SW7 might surpass JW by New Year's Eve, so it will even top 2015 calendar grosses: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?view=calendargross&view2=domestic&yr=2015&p=.htm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 571.4m + 29m (Tue) + 26m (Wed) + 20m (Thu) + 32m (Fri) + 33.5m (Sat) + 22m (Sun) 3rd weekend - 87.5m / 734m cume / ~950m dom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Futurist Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 900m is really the low end for this ? Dear Lord, there are no words. This is History in the making. Everything will look tame in comparison to this Monster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 A movie having a chance at a billion domestic is unfathomable. If anyone would have predicted anything close to a billion before the insane pre sales were made public, not only would you have been laughed at, but you might have actually been banned from this site lol 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darthdevidem01 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 A part of me wishes we never knew about the pre sales lol The 250m OW and run would be soooo much more shocking than it even is! Like some people would've probably actually died from shock! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 6 hours ago, Fake said: There is no point in extrapolating legs of SW7 based on Avatar. Avatar was a different kind of monster. On the other hand, SW7 is basically mirroring the LOTR2 run at 3x level Day: SW7 - LOTR2 - Multi Fri (w/m): 62.1 - 19.2 = 3.23x Sat: 68.3 - 22.75 = 3.00x Sun: 60.55 - 20.0 = 3.03x Mon: 40.1 - 13.5 = 2.97x Tue: 37.4 - 7.8 = 4.80x Wed: 38.0 - 12.4 = 3.06x Thu: 27.4 - 15.45 = 1.77x Week 1: 333.85 - 111.15 = 3.00x Fri: 49.3 - 16.9 = 2.92x Sat: 56.7 - 17.2 = 3.30x Sun: 43.15 - 14.8 = 2.92x Mon: 31.3 - 10.1 = 3.10x Week 2 (so far): 180.55 - 59.0 = 3.06x (The fluctuation in dailies is due to Christmas falling on different day of the week.) LOTR2 made 129.6m after Monday. If SW7 continues to be at 3x level, it will make further 388m after Monday, which means 572 + 388 = 960M finish. That's why 1B is not locked yet. For 1B to happen, the requires multiplier from here on would be 3.3x. Nice find on the comparison. however looking at it from this weekend and moving forward SW7 will be 4x larger. 25m to 100m+. LOTR2 made 68m more, 2.75x. That puts SW7 at 1.025B. 1B locked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 7 hours ago, Fake said: There is no point in extrapolating legs of SW7 based on Avatar. Avatar was a different kind of monster. On the other hand, SW7 is basically mirroring the LOTR2 run at 3x level Day: SW7 - LOTR2 - Multi Fri (w/m): 62.1 - 19.2 = 3.23x Sat: 68.3 - 22.75 = 3.00x Sun: 60.55 - 20.0 = 3.03x Mon: 40.1 - 13.5 = 2.97x Tue: 37.4 - 7.8 = 4.80x Wed: 38.0 - 12.4 = 3.06x Thu: 27.4 - 15.45 = 1.77x Week 1: 333.85 - 111.15 = 3.00x Fri: 49.3 - 16.9 = 2.92x Sat: 56.7 - 17.2 = 3.30x Sun: 43.15 - 14.8 = 2.92x Mon: 31.3 - 10.1 = 3.10x Week 2 (so far): 180.55 - 59.0 = 3.06x (The fluctuation in dailies is due to Christmas falling on different day of the week.) LOTR2 made 129.6m after Monday. If SW7 continues to be at 3x level, it will make further 388m after Monday, which means 572 + 388 = 960M finish. That's why 1B is not locked yet. For 1B to happen, the requires multiplier from here on would be 3.3x. That's a great analysis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 (edited) 18 minutes ago, No Prisoners said: Nice find on the comparison. however looking at it from this weekend and moving forward SW7 will be 4x larger. 25m to 100m+. LOTR2 made 68m more, 2.75x. That puts SW7 at 1.025B. 1B locked LOTR's 3rd weekend was 28.18m, not 25m. So 100m weekend will be 3.54x larger. That will push SW a little below 1b. Also 100m this weekend is not locked so can't use that number. 90m is possible too, which will be 3.2x LOTR's 28.18m. 900m is locked I think and 950m is very likely. 1b is possible but not locked. Edited December 30, 2015 by a2knet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlashMaster659 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Not sure if this has been posted. Gitesh Pandya @giteshpandya 6h6 hours ago #StarWarsTheForceAwakens looking at $29-30M TUE shattering $600M in record 12.5 days w/ plenty o' holiday biz to come. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 5 minutes ago, a2knet said: LOTR's 3rd weekend was 28.18m, not 25m. So 100m weekend will be 3.54x larger. That will push SW a little below 1b. Also 100m this weekend is not locked so can't use that number. 90m is possible too, which will be 3.2x LOTR's 28.18m. 900m is locked I think and 950m is very likely. 1b is possible but not locked. LotR 2 was 25m. 3 was 28 100m is locked and I'll bet you a gift certificate if you wish. By default. 1B locked. Double or nothing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 2 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said: Not sure if this has been posted. Gitesh Pandya @giteshpandya 6h6 hours ago #StarWarsTheForceAwakens looking at $29-30M TUE shattering $600M in record 12.5 days w/ plenty o' holiday biz to come. That was 6 hours ago....see the 6H beside gitesh's name? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 JW made 42% more than AOU and SW needs 926m to beat JW by 42%. Epic year at the bo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlashMaster659 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 8 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said: That was 6 hours ago....see the 6H beside gitesh's name? Yea. Just didn't see if anybody here mentioned it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 6 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said: Yea. Just didn't see if anybody here mentioned it. But we have deadline and RTH already posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shruth Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Ik everyone doesnt say it but Guys let's not just say $1 Bil locked because if it dosent get there you will be sad and wont be able to appreciate the full glory of its run. Just keep $1 Bill as a possibility for now and just expect something like $950m so dreams do not get crushed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 11 minutes ago, No Prisoners said: LotR 2 was 25m. 3 was 28 100m is locked and I'll bet you a gift certificate if you wish. By default. 1B locked. Double or nothing? You are right, I thought he meant LOTR3. I cannot take that bet cause I am not saying that it won't make 100m this weekend. Just that it's not locked at this point. I don't know how that can be proven though. These are my estimates from a couple of hours back : 2 hours ago, a2knet said: 571.4m + 29m (Tue) + 26m (Wed) + 20m (Thu) + 32m (Fri) + 33.5m (Sat) + 22m (Sun) 3rd weekend - 87.5m / 734m cume / ~950m dom They are conservative and SW could touch 100m. Nothing it will do will surprise me much at this point because of the bo it has charted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
