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2016 40M OWs - 20 down, 4 to go (Totals Are Built on OWs.)

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

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Right now I'm expecting:

 

The 7 that have already done it

8. The Conjuring 2

9. Finding Dory

10. Central Intelligence

11. Independence Day

12. Secret Life of Pets

13. Ghostbusters

14. Star Trek

15. Bourne

16. Suicide Squad

17. Sausage Party

18. Magnificent Seven

19. Doctor Strange

20. Fantastic Beasts

21. Moana

22. Rogue One

23. Passengers

 

This is going to be very close.

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The Panda Global Phenomenon

The Panda

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1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

Right now I'm expecting:

 

The 7 that have already done it

8. The Conjuring 2

9. Finding Dory

10. Central Intelligence

11. Independence Day

12. Secret Life of Pets

13. Ghostbusters

14. Star Trek

15. Bourne

16. Suicide Squad

17. Sausage Party

18. Magnificent Seven

19. Doctor Strange

20. Fantastic Beasts

21. Moana

22. Rogue One

23. Passengers

 

This is going to be very close.

 

I can't see Passengers, it'll be a good sized hit but right after Rogue One and with a Christmas release (with Christmas Eve being on a Saturday) and releasing on a Wednesday, I don't think 40m OW can feasibly happen.

 

Im also not sure on CI, that seems more like a leggy comedy hit, but its possible.

 

And I'm skeptical about Bourne for the pure fact that sequels seem to be having a hard time this summer, and Bourne has been on its way out on pop culturally relevant.

 

I think 24 could happen, but there needs to be a quite a few surprise breakouts.

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Avatree Global Phenomenon

Avatree

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with 8 down already and the following:

 

Turtles

Warcraft

Central Intelligence

Dory

Indepence day

Secret Life of Pets

Ghostbusters

Star Trek

Bourne 5

Suicide Squad

Sausage Party

Storks

Dr Strange

Fantastic Beasts

Moana

Rogue One

Assassin's Creed

 

That's 25 which is the record.

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trifle Box Office Gold

trifle

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, The Panda said:

 

I can't see Passengers, it'll be a good sized hit but right after Rogue One and with a Christmas release (with Christmas Eve being on a Saturday) and releasing on a Wednesday, I don't think 40m OW can feasibly happen.

 

...

And I'm skeptical about Bourne for the pure fact that sequels seem to be having a hard time this summer, and Bourne has been on its way out on pop culturally relevant.

 

 

I hadn't thought about Christmas's impact on OW for Passengers.  I think Passengers will do well, and even with Christmas eve will do better than 40M OW, personally.  Sony was presenting it as the top of their slate for the year in Russia and was practically purring over it at CinemaCon.

 

I think, having just seen a Bourne trailer in a theater (and not having been particularly excited about it or not before that) that it will do above 40M OW as well.  It looked interesting whether you have watched all the Bourne movies or not.  (That coming from someone who has seen only one of them.)

 

I can't judge Warcraft at all.  Assassins Creed I think will do well, if not huge numbers, over 40M OW anyhow.  I think Dory and Rogue One are slam dunks.  I expect Independence Day to do over 40M.  Not sure about Suicide Squad, but probably.  I hope Star Trek does, I like the new Star Trek  (despite flaws.)

 

...So, here goes nothing:

 

The 7 we already have

Passengers

Bourne

Assassins Creed

Dory

Rogue One

IDR

Suicide Squad

Star Trek

Fantastic Beasts

La La Land

Magnificent Seven

The Secret Life of Pets

Conjuring 2

Ghostbusters

 

and, um, three of the following?

Bad Moms

Tarzan

Warcraft

Dr Strange

 

Edited by trifle
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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

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34 minutes ago, trifle said:

 

I hadn't thought about Christmas's impact on OW for Passengers.  I think Passengers will do well, and even with Christmas eve will do better than 40M OW, personally.  Sony was presenting it as the top of their slate for the year in Russia and was practically purring over it at CinemaCon.

 

I think, having just seen a Bourne trailer in a theater (and not having been particularly excited about it or not before that) that it will do above 40M OW as well.  It looked interesting whether you have watched all the Bourne movies or not.  (That coming from someone who has seen only one of them.)

 

I can't judge Warcraft at all.  Assassins Creed I think will do well, if not huge numbers, over 40M OW anyhow.  I think Dory and Rogue One are slam dunks.  I expect Independence Day to do over 40M.  Not sure about Suicide Squad, but probably.  I hope Star Trek does, I like the new Star Trek  (despite flaws.)

 

...So, here goes nothing:

 

The 7 we already have

Passengers

Bourne

Assassins Creed

Dory

Rogue One

IDR

Suicide Squad

Star Trek

Fantastic Beasts

La La Land

Magnificent Seven

The Secret Life of Pets

Conjuring 2

Ghostbusters

 

and, um, three of the following?

Bad Moms

Tarzan

Warcraft

Dr Strange

 

Are you really thinking Strange could miss? It's hitting 40M. La La Land is too optimistic; I think it'll be a 100M grosser but its OW will only be around 20M.

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trifle Box Office Gold

trifle

Posted
Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Are you really thinking Strange could miss? It's hitting 40M. La La Land is too optimistic; I think it'll be a 100M grosser but its OW will only be around 20M.

 

I am hearing about La La Land from the strangest sources I thought paid no attention to movies at all, so I'm taking a chance on it.  I'd better look at what is opening near to it in time, though.

 

I'll think  about Strange, I'll look into the general enthusiasm around it, more.   I just think there are too many.  I was figuring SS would be more likely to make it than Dr Strange just because of the built in DC fanbase.  I did include it in my longer list of possibilities.  I'm really just starting to focus on this stuff, so I figure this list is part of my learning curve...

Edited by trifle
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mahnamahna Box Office Gold

mahnamahna

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Posted

1. TMNT 2: $43 million

2. The Conjuring 2: $46 million

3. Finding Dory: $124 million

4. Central Intelligence: $47 million 

5. Independence Day - Resurgence: $81 million

6. The Secret Lives of Pets: $73 million

7. Ghostbusters: $41 million

8. Star Trek Beyond: $67 million

9. Jason Bourne: $58 million

10. Suicide Squad: $127.5 million

11. The Magnificent Seven: $41.5 million

12. Storks: $48 million

13. Doctor Strange: $79.5 million

14. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them: $102 million

15. Moana: $64.5 million

16. Rogue One: $112 million

17. Passengers: $40.5 million  

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mahnamahna Box Office Gold

mahnamahna

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On 6/2/2016 at 7:03 PM, department store basement said:

 

Storks is this year's Hotel Transylvania 2 - a kids animated movie with hype and no competition.

Plus, it the first Warner animated film since LEGO Movie, so they'll be sure to emphasize that.

 

$140-160 million DOM is a reasonable expectation (much smaller than LEGO but comparable to HT1/2) 

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Blankments Global Phenomenon

Blankments

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150M

  1. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - March 27
  2. Captain America: Civil War - May 8

100M

  1. Deadpool - February 14
  2. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - March 27
  3. The Jungle Book - April 17
  4. Captain America: Civil War - May 8

75M

  1. Deadpool - February 14
  2. Zootopia – March 6
  3. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - March 27
  4. The Jungle Book - April 17
  5. Captain America: Civil War - May 8

40M

  1. Kung Fu Panda 3 - January 31
  2. Deadpool - February 14
  3. Zootopia – March 6
  4. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - March 27
  5. The Jungle Book - April 17
  6. Captain America: Civil War - May 8
  7. X-Men: Apocalypse - May 29
  8. The Conjuring 2 - June 12
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babz06 Box Office Gold

babz06

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Posted

 

 

Locks:

9) Finding Dory

10) Independence Day Resurgence

11) The Secret Life of Pets

12) Star Trek Beyond

13) Jason Bourne

14) Suicide Squad

15) Doctor Strange

16) Moana

17) Fantastic Beasts

18) Rogue One

 

Unless one of these films unexpectedly flops, the record is going down. Conjuring 2 really helped.

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JennaJ Box Office Gold

JennaJ

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1 hour ago, babz06 said:

 

Locks:

9) Finding Dory

10) Independence Day Resurgence

11) The Secret Life of Pets

12) Star Trek Beyond

13) Jason Bourne

14) Suicide Squad

15) Doctor Strange

16) Moana

17) Fantastic Beasts

18) Rogue One

 

Unless one of these films unexpectedly flops, the record is going down. Conjuring 2 really helped.

 

That only gets you to 18. You need 24.

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Blankments Global Phenomenon

Blankments

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150M

  1. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - March 27
  2. Captain America: Civil War - May 8

100M

  1. Deadpool - February 14
  2. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - March 27
  3. The Jungle Book - April 17
  4. Captain America: Civil War - May 8
  5. Finding Dory - June 19

75M

  1. Deadpool - February 14
  2. Zootopia – March 6
  3. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - March 27
  4. The Jungle Book - April 17
  5. Captain America: Civil War - May 8
  6. Finding Dory - June 19

40M

  1. Kung Fu Panda 3 - January 31
  2. Deadpool - February 14
  3. Zootopia – March 6
  4. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - March 27
  5. The Jungle Book - April 17
  6. Captain America: Civil War - May 8
  7. X-Men: Apocalypse - May 29
  8. The Conjuring 2 - June 12
  9. Finding Dory - June 19
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Blankments Global Phenomenon

Blankments

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150M

  1. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - March 27
  2. Captain America: Civil War - May 8

100M

  1. Deadpool - February 14
  2. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - March 27
  3. The Jungle Book - April 17
  4. Captain America: Civil War - May 8
  5. Finding Dory - June 19

75M

  1. Deadpool - February 14
  2. Zootopia – March 6
  3. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - March 27
  4. The Jungle Book - April 17
  5. Captain America: Civil War - May 8
  6. Finding Dory - June 19

40M

  1. Kung Fu Panda 3 - January 31
  2. Deadpool - February 14
  3. Zootopia – March 6
  4. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - March 27
  5. The Jungle Book - April 17
  6. Captain America: Civil War - May 8
  7. X-Men: Apocalypse - May 29
  8. The Conjuring 2 - June 12
  9. Finding Dory - June 19
  10. Independence Day: Resurgence - June 26
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trifle Box Office Gold

trifle

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 6/2/2016 at 11:17 AM, trifle said:

 

...So, here goes nothing:

 

The 7 we already have

Passengers

Bourne

Assassins Creed

Dory

Rogue One

IDR

Suicide Squad

Star Trek

Fantastic Beasts

La La Land

Magnificent Seven

The Secret Life of Pets

Conjuring 2

Ghostbusters

 

and, um, three of the following?

Bad Moms

Tarzan

Warcraft

Dr Strange

 

 

OK,  I think Han is right and La La Land is too optimistic.  I'm kinda thinking this doesn't look too likely, the way the year has gone so far.  But my best guess now would be:

 

The 10 we already have, plus:

 

Passengers

Bourne

Assassins Creed

Rogue One

Suicide Squad

Star Trek

Fantastic Beasts

Magnificent Seven

The Secret Life of Pets

Conjuring 2

Ghostbusters

Trolls

Tarzan

Dr Strange

 

Possible alternates

 

Bad Moms

Storks

 

....but I'm thinking it is going to be close. 

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Blankments Global Phenomenon

Blankments

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Posted

150M

  1. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - March 27
  2. Captain America: Civil War - May 8

100M

  1. Deadpool - February 14
  2. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - March 27
  3. The Jungle Book - April 17
  4. Captain America: Civil War - May 8
  5. Finding Dory - June 19
  6. The Secret Life of Pets - July 10

75M

  1. Deadpool - February 14
  2. Zootopia – March 6
  3. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - March 27
  4. The Jungle Book - April 17
  5. Captain America: Civil War - May 8
  6. Finding Dory - June 19
  7. The Secret Life of Pets - July 10

40M

  1. Kung Fu Panda 3 - January 31
  2. Deadpool - February 14
  3. Zootopia – March 6
  4. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - March 27
  5. The Jungle Book - April 17
  6. Captain America: Civil War - May 8
  7. X-Men: Apocalypse - May 29
  8. The Conjuring 2 - June 12
  9. Finding Dory - June 19
  10. Independence Day: Resurgence - June 26
  11. The Secret Life of Pets - July 10
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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

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The 11 we have

Ghostbusters

Star Trek

Bourne

Bad Moms

Suicide Squad

Pete's Dragon

Mag 7

Doctor Strange

Fantastic Beasts

Moana

Rogue One

Passengers

Sing

 

Record's going down if Bad Moms can keep up the presales and Pete's Dragon breaks out.

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