88TH ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS Discussion Topic (LIVE! Today's discussion begins on pg 33)

filmlover · February 17, 2016

The one category still stumped on is Supporting Actress, even though it's clearly a two woman race between Vikander and Winslet. Even though I feel like there isn't that much support for Winslet's performance, who wouldn't want to see the photos of her and Leo with their in the press room afterwards? Besides, The Danish Girl has no business being an Oscar-nominated, let alone an Oscar-winning one.

Jake Gittes · February 17, 2016

Still disappointed that JJL didn't win a single big precursor.

RichWS · February 17, 2016

I'm probably gonna predict Vikander simply because that's who everyone else is picking. I haven't seen Danish Girl (NOOOO interest) so I can't comment on the performance, but I can pretend it's for Ex Machina. She also has the "new ingenue" factor they love.

Jake Gittes · February 17, 2016

Her performance is pretty much the only good thing about The Danish Girl, but still not award-worthy.

All about Eve - old · February 17, 2016

It's like the year JLaw won the globes and Bafta but Lupita got SAG and Oscar.

So, I think the Oscar goes to Vikander but I'd love to see Winslet take it, mainly because Steve Jobs was in my top 3 of last year and Fassbender isn't going to get the best actor award he deserves.

I like Vikander but I didn't care for the Danish Girl and an early win for her might not bode well for the rest of her career.

CoolioD1 · February 17, 2016

it's not that hard to figure out. kate only won for the times alicia in danish girl was in lead.

Impact · February 18, 2016

The categories I'm most unsure of on my predicts are the sound ones as I can see any of those winning TBH.

Anyway these are my current:

Picture: Revenant

Director: AIH

Actor: Leo

Actress: Brie

S. Actor: Stallone

S. Actress: Alicia V.

A. Screenplay: Big Short

O. Screenplay: Spotlight

Cinematography: The Revenant

Production Design: Mad Max

Costume Design: Cinderella

Makeup: Mad Max

Editing: Mad Max
Sound Mixing: The Revenant

Sound Editing: The Martian

Visual Effects: Star Wars

Score: The Hateful 8

Song: Spectre

Animated Feature: Inside Out
Foreign Film: Son of Saul

Documentary Feature: Amy

Animated Short: Sanjay's Super Team

Documentary short: Body Team 12

Live Action Short: Stutterer

filmlover · February 18, 2016

Alicia Vikander is good in The Danish Girl (better than Redmayne for sure, although his ridiculous performance is more the script's fault than his) but the movie is just problematic all around. But yeah, she'll probably win because she plays the role of the suffering wife who has a million scenes where she cries "I NEED TO SEE AND TALK TO THE MAN I MARRIED AGAIN!"

Joel M · February 18, 2016

Before 2015 I have only watched Vikander in Anna Karenina. She was fantastic in a small role but until last year I didn't knew who she was. I watched all of her movies this year and Danish Girl was the worst of them. But Oscars are gonna oscar

Impact · February 19, 2016

Stallone should read his speech he wrote 39 years ago

The Renaissance Fan · February 20, 2016

But how often does The Academy get it right?

All about Eve - old · February 20, 2016

Redmayne really has great PR. He wasn't even nominated by several critics groups for this mannered performance. No one thinks he should win yet he's second favourite? Okay. Not that it matters of course since Leo is a lock but it bugs me.

Edited February 20, 2016 by All about Eve

filmlover · February 20, 2016

3 hours ago, All about Eve said:

Redmayne really has great PR. He wasn't even nominated by several critics groups for this mannered performance. No one thinks he should win yet he's second favourite? Okay. Not that it matters of course since Leo is a lock but it bugs me.

If it weren't for the fact he already won last year, we would probably be seeing Redmayne winning. Thank god for The Revenant and Leo's overdue status.

Jake Gittes · February 20, 2016

Looking at the supporting actor nominees in 2013 and lead actor nominees this year, Fassbender was easily the best among them both times. Can't wait for them to give him his own overdue Oscar in a year where he's like the 3rd or 4th most deserving nominee.

Edited February 20, 2016 by Jake Gittes

filmlover · February 20, 2016

2 hours ago, Jake Gittes said:

Looking at the supporting actor nominees in 2013 and lead actor nominees this year, Fassbender was easily the best among them both times. Can't wait for them to give him his own overdue Oscar in a year where he's like the 3rd or 4th most deserving nominee.

I feel like Fassbender would be winning if The Revenant didn't come out this year and the fact Steve Jobs made virtually no money at all.

All about Eve - old · February 20, 2016

3 hours ago, Jake Gittes said:

Looking at the supporting actor nominees in 2013 and lead actor nominees this year, Fassbender was easily the best among them both times. Can't wait for them to give him his own overdue Oscar in a year where he's like the 3rd or 4th most deserving nominee.

Agree.

It's funny, Room made no money but Brie Larson is a lock for actress. However, Steve Jobs' under performance has been held against Fassbender from the start of awards season. That idiot Scott Feinberg from The Hollywood reporter refused to even accept he would be nominated until he was. He actually said Fassbender was an actor not a star! Well, on that basis perhaps Daniel Day Lewis should return his oscars and hand them over to Will Smith.

Webslinger · February 20, 2016

I think that Steve Jobs's box office failure is being held against it for two reasons:

1.) It's a studio film that got a pretty solid advertising push (I definitely saw a lot of ads for it on TV in the weeks leading up to its release, anyway).

2.) Its subject was extremely visible and well-known, to the point where his biography (which the film tied itself to despite covering just three days and occasional flashbacks) was a big bestseller. Sure, the bio's sales were definitely inflated by the fact that it was released shortly after Jobs's death, but the fact that his death and the subsequent book sales were such large media stories speaks to the extent of the public's awareness and interest in him.

On the other hand, Room is an independent film with a burgeoning distributor. Even though it's based on a book that sold well, it flew so far below most moviegoers' radar that I know people who read the book years ago who didn't even know that a film was in the works until after the awards season buzz began to swell.

Joel M · February 20, 2016

5 minutes ago, All about Eve said:

Agree.

It's funny, Room made no money but Brie Larson is a lock for actress. However, Steve Jobs' under performance has been held against Fassbender from the start of awards season.

not the same thing. Room is the tiny movie that made it and it's box office makes it a relative success. Steve Jobs was a much bigger and more commercial project that didn't even needed to make that much money to be a success but bombed horribly.

Who made the most money doesn't matter for the oscars because not every movie has the same financial ceiling, but relative BO success matters more than anything. I can think of only one movie that won a "big" Academy Award without being succesful at the BO, The Hurt Locker, which is a rare exception. Almost every movie that has won one of the big awards (picture, directing, screenplays, acting) has been at least a mild success regarding budget and expectations. If a really small movie like Room makes 15m at the box office instead of 2, it's a hit. If a 30m budgeted big studio movie with famous names both behind and in front of the camera and substantial marketing push struggles to make 30m WW it's a huge flop.

The Academy doesn't like to give it's biggest awards to movies that audiences rejected.

Webslinger · February 20, 2016

Even The Hurt Locker was a modest success against expectations. It was given a limited release in the summer, and none of its stars were recognizable names among the public at the time. To boot, it was also released at a time when virtually every film that dealt with the war on terror bombed horrifically, which probably goes a long way toward explaining why Summit wasn't very aggressive with it during its theatrical run. Coincidentally, the limited scope of its box office was a major selling point in its Best Picture narrative, given that its main competition was blowing up the all-time charts.

Edited February 20, 2016 by Webslinger

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88TH ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS Discussion Topic (LIVE! Today's discussion begins on pg 33)

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