Weekend revised estimates and 4 days totals pg 43 4 day est: RA2: 41.6: The Rev: 39.0... SW7: 32.5

[Ethan Hunt]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

This is why I hate marvel films, they try their hardest to make crappy memes.

 

 

 

[AniNate]

After much painstaking calculation, I determined that over the first four weeks of its run Avatar had $830 million unadjusted competition, while Star Wars had $717 million

Edited January 18, 2016 by tribefan695

[AniNate]

And I just realized I could've made things easier and more accurate for myself and just subtracted each movie's gross from the sum of the weekly grosses.

Edited January 18, 2016 by tribefan695

[terrestrial]

5 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

After much painstaking calculation, I determined that over the first four weeks of its run Avatar had $775 million unadjusted competition, while Star Wars had $691 million

But did you include the max. possible of the market, means both movies BOs too in some way?

Not meant to start anything, only to point out another detail, that could be taking into consideration.

As the start of this newest ... measurement whatever fest was something about how the 5th weekend's newly arrived competition didn't help the 5th weekend results of SW7... I really do not know why that little remark had to be blown up too, especially as said remark of @MovieMan89 was not saying it's about big changes / considerable big impact, only a thought/observation, at least IMHO.

Or does here anyone believe there is no difference between a newly released surprise hit at the, let's say 2nd weekend to the 5th weekend or later on on the result of an already released movie during its already weakened run?

It still managed to reach #4 of best 5th weekends, that is IMHO rather impressive considering it already had to have fulfilled a lot of viewing wishes, including repeats. Has it really 'have' to be about more?

 

Btw, The Revenent (now #1) surpassed both in NZ and AUS in their 2nd weekend's results SW7 (now #2), just in case someone else is interested how that ones does after all the award buzz

[stripe]

TFA possible run for the rest of January. I think I am conservative

 

2.4M - 1.8M - 1.8M = 6M

3.5M - 6.5M - 4M = 14M (877M)

 

1.4M - 1.7M - 1.3M - 1.3M = 5.7M

2.7M - 4.8M - 3M = 10.5M (893M)

 

[AniNate]

10 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

But did you include the max. possible of the market, means both movies BOs too in some way?

Not meant to start anything, only to point out another detail, that could be taking into consideration.

As the start of this newest ... measurement whatever fest was something about how the 5th weekend's newly arrived competition didn't help the 5th weekend results of SW7... I really do not know why that little remark had to be blown up too, especially as said remark of @MovieMan89 was not saying it's about big changes / considerable big impact, only a thought/observation, at least IMHO.

Or does here anyone believe there is no difference between a newly released surprise hit at the, let's say 2nd weekend to the 5th weekend or later on on the result of an already released movie during its already weakened run?

It still managed to reach #4 of best 5th weekends, that is IMHO rather impressive considering it already had to have fulfilled a lot of viewing wishes, including repeats. Has it really 'have' to be about more?

 

 

Since Avatar grossed less with more competition, market share would yield a similar result. 

 

Two $200 million grossers opened the next weekend and it still managed a <2% drop. You can't ignore that.

Edited January 18, 2016 by tribefan695

[terrestrial]

6 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

You can't ignore that.

You missed my point, and beliefe me, I do not ignore 'anything' (me: 'preaching' for to look into a lot of details and not only for pure charts of BO/adjusted/admissions/whatever... fill in which one you prefer)

 

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2016/01/18/box-office-star-wars-the-force-awakens-didnt-need-china-to-be-a-blockbuster/#2307ca137e3b3f8b96c37e3b

 

He get's some endresults wrong I guess, but a nice read IMHO, especially considering he doesn't like the movie

[terrestrial]

BoxOffice ‏@BoxOffice

THE FOREST took in an estimated $7.02M over the 4-day weekend and has grossed $22.35M to date domestically. #TheForest

[terrestrial]

hmm, as they wrote 13 hours is especially been/getting seen in southern states, might the holiday in Texas tomorrow help it a little bit?

 

Can't remember if anyone already pointed out:

the next long-range prediction at BO.com is up

http://pro.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2016-01-long-range-forecast-10-cloverfield-lane-the-young-messiah-the-brothers-grimsby

 

Gitesh Pandya ‏@giteshpandya

#RideAlong2 knocks #StarWars from #1 over #MLK wknd w/ $41.6M FRI-MON. #KevinHart has now scored five $25M+ openers over past 2yrs.

 

[La Binoche]

Avatar had some really lame bits (the plugging of the ponytails lololol) and yeah yeah it was just a Pocahontas ripoff, but at least Cameron knows how to make one hell of an action scene. The more I think about it, the more I think Avatar > TFA. 

 

 

[AniNate]

12 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

You missed my point, and beliefe me, I do not ignore 'anything' (me: 'preaching' for to look into a lot of details and not only for pure charts of BO/adjusted/admissions/whatever... fill in which one you prefer)

 

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2016/01/18/box-office-star-wars-the-force-awakens-didnt-need-china-to-be-a-blockbuster/#2307ca137e3b3f8b96c37e3b

 

He get's some endresults wrong I guess, but a nice read IMHO, especially considering he doesn't like the movie

 

Star Wars is a bigger hit than Avatar here by any measurement, but it's highly unrealistic to expect nothing at all to break out during its run. Something was going to steal its thunder eventually.

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

Avatar had some really lame bits (the plugging of the ponytails lololol) and yeah yeah it was just a Pocahontas ripoff, but at least Cameron knows how to make one hell of an action scene. The more I think about it, the more I think Avatar > TFA. 

 

He wrote the script before pocahontas was even released : )

[kayumanggi]

RIDE ALONG 2 opened with an estimated $41.55M over the 4-day weekend. #RideAlong2

— BoxOffice (@BoxOffice)

January 18, 2016

[terrestrial]

3 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

... but it's highly unrealistic to expect nothing at all to break out during its run. Something was going to steal its thunder eventually.

never questioned that either, I only pointed out that someone posted a simple remark and ppl had to jump on it beside it wasn't even 'charting' anything, a mere observation / thought, at least that is, how I understood his (I think it's a he) post.

 

BoxOffice ‏@BoxOffice

RIDE ALONG 2 opened with an estimated $41.55M over the 4-day weekend. #RideAlong2

 

Gitesh Pandya ‏@giteshpandya

#RideAlong2 had 4th best #MLK opening ever after AmericanSniper, #RideAlong & Cloverfield. Debut was -15% vs RA1.

Edited January 18, 2016 by terrestrial

[WrathOfHan]

Terrestrial, do you want to start an Actuals thread? ED said we're going back to separate Estimates and Actuals threads this week.

[AniNate]

3 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

never questioned that wither, I only pointed out that someone posted a simple remark and ppl had to jump on it beside it wasn't even 'charting' anything, a mere observation / thought.

 

Well, I know I can't see how Star Wars' competition was any tougher than what's "usual".

[terrestrial]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Terrestrial, do you want to start an Actuals thread? ED said we're going back to separate Estimates and Actuals threads this week.

 

Do you want too? For me it's more about providing details, I do not really care (only that they get provided in the end  )

 

1 minute ago, tribefan695 said:

Well, I know I can't see how Star Wars' competition was any tougher than what's "usual".

he didn't even said that, only a remark about if might have cut (a bit) into the legs (of that weekend) = as in, if there would have been a bit less big movie, it might have made a bit more (I guess like let's say $1m). Why ppl had to jump on that is what I do not understand.

[WrathOfHan]

5 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

 

Do you want too? For me it's more about providing details, I do not really care (only that they get provided in the end  )

 

he didn't even said that, only a remark about if might have cut (a bit) into the legs (of that weekend) = as in, if there would have been a bit less big movie, it might have made a bit more (I guess like let's say $1m). Why ppl had to jump on that is what I do not understand.

Hmm, these are all 4 day estimates, no studio has released 3 day actuals yet  Probably have to wait for BOM.

Edited January 18, 2016 by WrathOfHan

[terrestrial]

o.K., so for now here the nexts tweets...

 

BoxOffice ‏@BoxOffice

STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS took in an estimated $32.57M over the 4-day weekend has grossed $858.50M to date domestically. #StarWars

[terrestrial]

Gitesh Pandya ‏@giteshpandya

Films knocking all-time champs from #1 wknd spot: LostInSpace (Titanic), DearJohn (Avatar) & now #RideAlong2 (#ForceAwakens).