Weekend Estimates (Page 28): Kung Fu Panda 3 - 41M, The Finest Hours 0- 10.3M, The Revenant - 12.4M...Sunday holds better than expected.....SW over 11 mill and KFP3 over 41 pg 34

[GiantCALBears]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I expect a year that mirrors 2014 only with 400 and 500M grossers.

The interesting thing about 2014 compared to 2015 is there was actually a lot better performance spread out among a bunch of films (13 vs 9 (or 10 if you want to round up Spectre) $200m films), I see getting double digit $200m films this year as a very tall order. 

[CJohn]

11 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I expect a year that mirrors 2014 only with 400 and 500M grossers.

Early 2016 always looked bad but the rest of year looks insane.

[GiantCALBears]

2015 was top heavy, no guarantee BvS, cap vs IM, rogue one, fantastic beasts will reach any of their lofty expectations.

[mahnamahna]

19 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

Early impression from 2016 (even in a notoriously weak month historically)... This is going to be one of the least attended years in recent movie history. Schedule is weak & performance will match that.

I wouldn't write off 2016 until May-June.

 

The first big film of 2016 was released this weekend... Deadpool, Zootopia, BvS, Jungle Book, CA3, Alice 2, X-Men Apocalypse on the horizon... Finding Dory, Central Intelligence, ID42, Pets, Star Trek 3, Ghostbusters, Bourne 5, SS, Doctor Strange, Fantastic Beasts, Moana, Rogue One, Sing.... the lineup is a lot stronger than you think. Instead of being top-heavy, it might be more well-rounded where nothing tops $450 million, but 15 films cross $190-210 million DOM. 

 

If Deadpool does less than Kingsman, Zoolander 2 misses $80 million and Zootopia does Good Dinosaur #s, then 2016 is in trouble. 

Edited January 30, 2016 by mahnamahna

[DAJK]

18 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

Early impression from 2016 (even in a notoriously weak month historically)... This is going to be one of the least attended years in recent movie history. Schedule is weak & performance will match that.

I've got to agree a bit on that. Feb is weak outside of maybe Deadpool, March/April have BvS and Zootopia/Jungle book (3 big hits not enough for 2 months). Then summer looks a lot like 2014. Winter will be strong as usual, but yea, another down year.

[WrathOfHan]

2014 had 33 100M grossers. Let's take a look at this year's possibilities: 

 

Locks (20):

 

Zootopia

Batman v Superman

The Jungle Book

Civil War

Apocalypse

Alice

TMNT

The Conjuring

Finding Dory

Independence Day

Secret Life of Pets

Star Trek Beyond

Ice Age

Bourne

Suicide Squad

Doctor Strange

Fantastic Beasts

Moana

Rogue One

Sing

 

Very good chance (8):

 

Deadpool

Neighbors 2

Central Intelligence 

The BFG

Ghostbusters

Storks

The Girl on the Train

Passengers

 

Wildcards:

 

Zoolander

Cloverfield

Big Fat Greek Wedding

Angry Birds

Now You See Me 2

Warcraft

The Purge 3

Pete's Dragon

Sully

The Magnificent Seven

Inferno

Trolls

The Great Wall

Bad Santa 2

Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk

Assassin's Creed

Silence

Birth of a Nation

Whatever other Oscar contenders come out

Any of the faith based movies (God's not Dead, Risen, etc)

 

 

Edited January 30, 2016 by WrathOfHan

[GiantCALBears]

2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Early 2016 always looked bad but the rest of year looks insane.

 

Insane? How exactly? what is going to outperform IYO?

[DAJK]

2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Early 2016 always looked bad but the rest of year looks insane.

Outside of Nov/Dec it's just kind of "another year" to me. Sure, you got BvS and Cap 3, both of which will do o/u 400M. Dory will be a big hit, but unless ID4 is some sort of JW-type smash, summer is going to depend on the "wildcards".

[department store basement]

WrathOfHan, what makes BFG and Girl on the Train "very good chance"? I'd put them in the wildcard category. Also, Purge 3 won't make 100m. The rest of your list is perfect.

[GiantCALBears]

The true wild cards to me are Rogue one and fantastic beasts. How much they outperform or disappoint for being spin offs of the two most successful franchises we've had could decide the year. 

[department store basement]

I think Rogue One is the only "surefire hit" we'll have this year. All of the other tentpoles have a decent chance to underperform.

Edited January 30, 2016 by department store basement

[The Futurist]

CGI animation fatigue anyone ?

Or saturated market ?

 

 

Edited January 30, 2016 by The Futurist

[CJohn]

None of you looked at the late May/June schedule. It looks bonkers. 

[Ethan Hunt]

2 minutes ago, department store basement said:

I think Rogue One is the only "surefire hit" we'll have this year. All of the other tentpoles have a decent chance to underperform.

 

1 hour ago, Ethan Hunt said:

 

You always have the most amusingly nonsensical things to say

 

[GiantCALBears]

3 minutes ago, CJohn said:

None of you looked at the late May/June schedule. It looks bonkers. 

I looked through it, I just don't agree with your premise. What is so bonkers about it?

[WrathOfHan]

9 minutes ago, department store basement said:

WrathOfHan, what makes BFG and Girl on the Train "very good chance"? I'd put them in the wildcard category. Also, Purge 3 won't make 100m. The rest of your list is perfect.

Girl on the Train feels like another Gone Girl and has the first weekend of October, a historically good weekend in the past few years (The Martian, Gone Girl, Annabelle, Gravity, Taken 2). BFG has Spielberg.

[Water Bottle]

39 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

Early impression from 2016 (even in a notoriously weak month historically)... This is going to be one of the least attended years in recent movie history. Schedule is weak & performance will match that.

 

YTD 2016 is up from 2014 and 2013. It is down slightly from 2016.

 

1 hour ago, Telemachos said:

 

Couldn't agree more. The best and most illuminating criticism is in essay form. I don't really care whether a critic liked something or not, but I do appreciate the time, effort, and care it takes to write a thoughtful review. Appearing on YouTube is basically just performance art, the actual content of the review is on the bottom of priorities. 

 

I kinda want to spend the effort writing a review in essay form but instead of releasing it as an essay, I read it out in a Youtube vid.

 

But that's a lot of effort just to disagree with you.

[GiantCALBears]

1 minute ago, Water Bottle said:

 

YTD 2016 is up from 2014 and 2013. It is down slightly from 2016.

 

Is that in unadjusted gross or tickets WB? Just to clarify.

[GiantCALBears]

It probably won't be as bad as 2014 but it wouldn't surprise me at all if it was, a lot of the tentpoles have more unknowns than sure things. Leaves room to the upside as well.

[Water Bottle]

1 minute ago, GiantCALBears said:

Is that in unadjusted gross or tickets WB? Just to clarify.

 

Adjusting, still way up from 2012 and 2013 and very slightly down to 2014 (by 1%).