Weekend Estimates (Page 28): Kung Fu Panda 3 - 41M, The Finest Hours 0- 10.3M, The Revenant - 12.4M...Sunday holds better than expected.....SW over 11 mill and KFP3 over 41 pg 34

[CJohn]

There is 0% chance this year goes below the garbage that was 2014. 0%.

[Maxmoser3]

2016 is a year that will be so-so in comparison to last year. This January looked flat because Star Wars was locked to make some money in January, Ride Along 2 wasn't a surprise(at least to me) to drop from its predecessor like Think Like  A Man Too did back in the summer of 2014. 13 Hours was expected to do modest numbers. Really the big film that surprised this month was The Revenant. February has one big release (Deadpool) Zoolander 2 will probably make about 55-65 million domestic. Hail, Caesar! Will make 30-35 million domestic. Risen might make some profit. How To Be Single will be front-loaded. Pride & Prejudice:Zombies, Gods Of Egypt, Triple 9, and the others will bomb. March has two big hits Zootopia, and BVS:Dawn Of Justice. Allegiant, London Has Fallen, and  Brothers Grimsby will bomb. 10 Cloverfield Lane might surprise or break even for Paramount. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 will take a large dive from its predcessor. April has two potential hits (Jungle Book, and maybe Huntsman) as well as some possible surprise hits such as The Boss. The summer looks decent . The fall looks bland. November and December look eh. 2016 will fall short of the record.

[department store basement]

11 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

 

 

 

Why is saying that Rogue One is the only movie this year certain to not underperform "nonsensical"? I don't get you Ethan.

[Water Bottle]

Just now, CJohn said:

There is 0% chance this year goes below the garbage that was 2014. 0%.

 

There are a lot of major franchises (major franchise being where a franchise that's total has reached $1 billion domestic) coming out this year: the MCU, Batman, Star Wars, Harry Potter, X-Men, Star Trek, and Pixar.  2016 should be fine.

[GiantCALBears]

1 minute ago, Water Bottle said:

 

Adjusting, still way up from 2012 and 2013 and very slightly down to 2014 (by 1%).

Interesting thanks, my original comment was meant to also forecast the year so I wasn't just saying January being the weak is the reason the year will be the same. If anything from comparing those 3 years (obv super small sample size) the reverse is true.

[CJohn]

2 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said:

2016 is a year that will be so-so in comparison to last year. This January looked flat because Star Wars was locked to make some money in January, Ride Along 2 wasn't a surprise(at least to me) to drop from its predecessor like Think Like  A Man Too did back in the summer of 2014. 13 Hours was expected to do modest numbers. Really the big film that surprised this month was The Revenant. February has one big release (Deadpool) Zoolander 2 will probably make about 55-65 million domestic. Hail, Caesar! Will make 30-35 million domestic. Risen might make some profit. How To Be Single will be front-loaded. Pride & Prejudice:Zombies, Gods Of Egypt, Triple 9, and the others will bomb. March has two big hits Zootopia, and BVS:Dawn Of Justice. Allegiant, London Has Fallen, and  Brothers Grimsby will bomb. 10 Cloverfield Lane might surprise or break even for Paramount. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 will take a large dive from its predcessor. April has two potential hits (Jungle Book, and maybe Huntsman) as well as some possible surprise hits such as The Boss. The summer looks decent . The fall looks bland. November and December look eh. 2016 will fall short of the record.

It cost 5M  It is gonna be a smashing success for Paramount.

[Water Bottle]

3 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said:

2016 is a year that will be so-so in comparison to last year. This January looked flat because Star Wars was locked to make some money in January, Ride Along 2 wasn't a surprise(at least to me) to drop from its predecessor like Think Like  A Man Too did back in the summer of 2014. 13 Hours was expected to do modest numbers. Really the big film that surprised this month was The Revenant. February has one big release (Deadpool) Zoolander 2 will probably make about 55-65 million domestic. Hail, Caesar! Will make 30-35 million domestic. Risen might make some profit. How To Be Single will be front-loaded. Pride & Prejudice:Zombies, Gods Of Egypt, Triple 9, and the others will bomb. March has two big hits Zootopia, and BVS:Dawn Of Justice. Allegiant, London Has Fallen, and  Brothers Grimsby will bomb. 10 Cloverfield Lane might surprise or break even for Paramount. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 will take a large dive from its predcessor. April has two potential hits (Jungle Book, and maybe Huntsman) as well as some possible surprise hits such as The Boss. The summer looks decent . The fall looks bland. November and December look eh. 2016 will fall short of the record.

 

January 2015 had American Sniper. The closest we've had this year is the Revenant. But otherwise than that, this January is performing within recent years.

[GiantCALBears]

1 minute ago, Water Bottle said:

 

There are a lot of major franchises (major franchise being where a franchise that's total has reached $1 billion domestic) coming out this year: the MCU, Batman, Star Wars, Harry Potter, X-Men, Star Trek, and Pixar.  2016 should be fine.

Funny thing is I could see all of those movies falling short of expectations, every single one. Doesn't mean it won't be better than 2014 but it could be a major relative disappointment to some.

[mahnamahna]

1 minute ago, Maxmoser3 said:

2016 is a year that will be so-so in comparison to last year. This January looked flat because Star Wars was locked to make some money in January, Ride Along 2 wasn't a surprise(at least to me) to drop from its predecessor like Think Like  A Man Too did back in the summer of 2014. 13 Hours was expected to do modest numbers. Really the big film that surprised this month was The Revenant. February has one big release (Deadpool) Zoolander 2 will probably make about 55-65 million domestic. Hail, Caesar! Will make 30-35 million domestic. Risen might make some profit. How To Be Single will be front-loaded. Pride & Prejudice:Zombies, Gods Of Egypt, Triple 9, and the others will bomb. March has two big hits Zootopia, and BVS:Dawn Of Justice. Allegiant, London Has Fallen, and  Brothers Grimsby will bomb. 10 Cloverfield Lane might surprise or break even for Paramount. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 will take a large dive from its predcessor. April has two potential hits (Jungle Book, and maybe Huntsman) as well as some possible surprise hits such as The Boss. The summer looks decent . The fall looks bland. November and December look eh. 2016 will fall short of the record.

Fall 2016 looks solid! 

1. Storks: $165 million 
2. The Girl on the Train: $150 million 
3. The Magnificent Seven: $135 million 
4. Inferno: $105 million 
5. Sully: $100 million 
6. A Monster Calls: $80 million 
7. Jack Reacher 2: $70 million 
8. Underworld 5: $60 million 
9. The Accountant: $50 million 
10. Ouija 2: $45 million 

Nothing mind-boggling, but still solid

 

 

[CJohn]

4 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

 

January 2015 had American Sniper. The closest we've had this year is the Revenant. But otherwise than that, this January is performing within recent years.

February is gonna drop as well. But after that 2016 is gonna fly. 

[SWXII]

20 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

CGI animation fatigue anyone ?

Or saturated market ?

 

 

 

Into the digital realm....

 

Something revolutionary is happening with CGI. I never had much use for it until Jurassic World and TFA. If I am right it will help Jungle Book and that will be an important milestone. Could be a great year. And those that doubt the strength of SW will no longer do so after Rogue.

 

2016 could change everything. And we still have Cameron out there pushing technology to new levels.

 

We are seeing the biggest changes in cinema since 1997. IMO.

[GiantCALBears]

2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

February is gonna drop as well. But after that 2016 is gonna fly. 

 

Do you think this year will sell more tickets than 2012/13?

[CJohn]

Just now, GiantCALBears said:

 

Do you think this year will sell more tickets than 2012/13?

I am just talking about box office. 

[Ethan Hunt]

16 minutes ago, department store basement said:

 

Why is saying that Rogue One is the only movie this year certain to not underperform "nonsensical"? I don't get you Ethan.

Singling one film out for the entire year that “sure fire won't under perform has absolutely no logic.

 

especially film that is a long way off and has no marketing yet

Edited January 30, 2016 by Ethan Hunt

[lab276]

An increase in dollars wouldn't surprise me, admissions maybe not though.

[GiantCALBears]

7 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I am just talking about box office. 

I was bringing up attendance in that original comment why I asked. The last 4 years as per mojo: '12: 1.361b; '13 1.344b; '14 1.268b; '15 1.32b. I'd say above '14 but below '15 is most likely scenerio agree?

[SWXII]

This will be a banner year. Recession or not.

[CJohn]

3 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

I was bringing up attendance in that original comment why I asked. The last 4 years as per mojo: '12: 1.361b; '13 1.344b; '14 1.268b; '15 1.32b. I'd say above '14 but below '15 is most likely scenerio agree?

I believe it will end above 2014 in tickets sold and box office. That seems guaranteed to me. Below 2015 I can agree as well. 

[GiantCALBears]

3 minutes ago, SWXII said:

This will be a banner year. Recession or not.

 

What do you mean by banner year & what recession are you referring to?

[kayumanggi]

2 hours ago, Telemachos said:

 

Couldn't agree more. The best and most illuminating criticism is in essay form. I don't really care whether a critic liked something or not, but I do appreciate the time, effort, and care it takes to write a thoughtful review. Appearing on YouTube is basically just performance art, the actual content of the review is on the bottom of priorities. 

 

Jeremy earns from doing it ha ha.