THE HITMAN'S BODYGUARD | 08.18.17 | trailer 1 on page 1

[Mike Branson]

Where do you guys live? Where I live there is a ton of marketing. I watch tv about four hours a day and I see 10 THB commercials in that four hours. Every movie at the theater I've seen in the last three months had a THB trailer attached. I've also seen billboards. 

This movie is getting plenty of marketing for a mid-August movie.

[Jay Beezy]

48 minutes ago, Mike Branson said:

Where do you guys live? Where I live there is a ton of marketing. I watch tv about four hours a day and I see 10 THB commercials in that four hours. Every movie at the theater I've seen in the last three months had a THB trailer attached. I've also seen billboards. 

This movie is getting plenty of marketing for a mid-August movie.

 

It's about quantity *and* quality of marketing. And while the quality hasn't been terrible, only a Bodyguard spoof poster and a TV spot that gives the stars' "reviews" of each other have been the only pieces of marketing that compared to the first redband trailer.

Edited August 12, 2017 by Jay Beezy

[Nova]

49 minutes ago, Mike Branson said:

Where do you guys live? Where I live there is a ton of marketing. I watch tv about four hours a day and I see 10 THB commercials in that four hours. Every movie at the theater I've seen in the last three months had a THB trailer attached. I've also seen billboards. 

This movie is getting plenty of marketing for a mid-August movie.

I meant quality of marketing. Not the quantity lol 

 

[babz06]

I don't think it's gonna be the second highest grossing comedy of the summer. Probably does around 10-12m OW and 35m Dom I don't get these 20m predictions it has no hype.

[Nova]

15 minutes ago, babz06 said:

I don't think it's gonna be the second highest grossing comedy of the summer. Probably does around 10-12m OW and 35m Dom I don't get these 20m predictions it has no hype.

Tracking sites have it at like $18M OW one week out. So most folks are using that to come up with a range for it. 

 

It's not going $20M+ but a film doesn't need a lot of hype to open at around $18-20M. 

 

The people who have this at $30M+ OW....yea I don't know where they're getting that from because in order for a film to open to that number, there needs to be a little bit of hype/buzz lol 

 

But stranger things have happened and when it comes to the box office, I've been wrong more than I've been right 

Edited August 12, 2017 by Nova

[Zakiyyah6]

Tracking also had The Dark Tower doing 25-27mil. 18mil could easily mean 12-13mil.

Edited August 12, 2017 by Zakiyyah6

[Jay Beezy]

10 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Tracking also had The Dark Tower doing 25-27mil. 18mil could easily mean 12-13mil.

Tracking for Dark Tower was before reviews came out saying it was garbage.

 

I supposed considering reviews for Hitman's Bodyguard are mid range, that 18M will probably be spot on.

[Barnack]

5 hours ago, Nova said:

It's not going $20M+ but a film doesn't need a lot of hype to open at around $18-20M. 

 

A Non IP or sequel live action movie need a good level of hype to achieve a 20M+ OW wide release, it really rarely happen and they are the exception.

 

in 2017:

1. Dunkirk: 50.5m
2. Split: 40m
3. Get out: 33.3m
4. Girls Trip: 31m
5. Baby Driver: 20.5m

 

In 2016:

1. Central Intelligence: 35.5
2. Sully: 35m
3. Don't breathe: 26.4m
4. Accountant: 24.7m
5. Arrival: 24m
6. Bad Moms: 23.8
7. The Boss: 23.5m
8. Lights Out: 21.688m
9. Deepwater Horizon 20.2m

 

Of the 250+ wide release that occurred during those 83 weekends, it happened to only 14 movies (I could have forgotten some, I looked at all the 20m OW quickly) but not many.

 

Remove the horror genre that can still often do it at a lower budget without a movie star/big name director and you end up with:

 

1. Dunkirk: 50.5m
2. Central Intelligence: 35.5m
3. Sully: 35m
4. Girls Trip: 31m
5. Accountant: 24.7m
6. Arrival: 24m
7. Bad Moms: 23.8
8. The Boss: 23.5m
9. Baby Driver: 20.5m
10. Deepwater Horizon 20.2m

 

Only 10 non horror live action movies achieved this in more than 18 months:

 

• they either had giant 100m+ budget like Dunkirk/Deepwater Horizon,
• or had one of the biggest movie star playing the perfect role that the audience prefer them to see them play at the domestic market like Hanks as the father figure hero/McCarthy raunchy R-comedy/Kevin Hart-Dwayne Johnson in an action comedy together playing their exact usual movie star persona, etc...
• or a very high level of acclaim buzz reviews with a big name director like Baby Driver/Arrival/Dunkirk
• or trailers that were giant hits and scored extremely well to audience like Accountant/Bad Moms/Girl Trip with an very easy to sell to co-workers/friend commercial high concept, that marketing made really clear. That part Hitman bodyguard has it (same for the star actors playing what audience want them to play).

 

It is something that only happen around 12-13% of the weekends to achieve that 20m bar (that is why it is still the bar of who are the biggest rare superstar box office draw of Denzel Washington level if you achieve to do it for a movie that is sold mostly on the star), considering there is almost always 3 wide release every weekend, those who do achieve that rare bar tended to have a lot of buzz, top 5/10 of the year for movies without IP helping level of buzz.

 

That why I rarely expect non-IP movie to do it (say I didn't expect Atomic Blonde to reach it and I do not expect American Made/Mother to do it either before some type of appeal is added to the movie to make them stand out of the 80+% of the weekend where it does not happen)

 

 

 

Edited August 13, 2017 by Barnack

[Nova]

12 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Tracking also had The Dark Tower doing 25-27mil. 18mil could easily mean 12-13mil.

No one is arguing that tracking gets it wrong. A poster asked where the $20M predictions were coming from. 

 

They're coming from the fact that that's where the film is tracking at one week from release. The final numbers could go up or they could go down. That's how box office works. For The Dark Tower, they went down. For a film like Annabelle, they went up.

 

If we you want to talk comedy, Girls Trip went up from tracking. Rough Night went down from tracking. 

 

But people still use tracking to give a range of where they think the film will end up hence for this film the $20M predictions. 

[Nova]

20 minutes ago, Barnack said:

A Non IP or sequel live action movie need a good level of hype to achieve a 20M+ OW wide release, it really rarely happen and they are the exception.

 

in 2017:

1. Dunkirk: 50.5m
2. Split: 40m
3. Get out: 33.3m
4. Girls Trip: 31m
5. Baby Driver: 20.5m

 

In 2016:

1. Central Intelligence: 35.5
2. Sully: 35m
3. Don't breathe: 26.4m
4. Accountant: 24.7m
5. Arrival: 24m
6. Bad Moms: 23.8
7. The Boss: 23.5m
8. Lights Out: 21.688m
9. Deepwater Horizon 20.2m

 

Of the 250+ wide release during that time and 83 weekend over that time only 14 movie made it (I could have forgotten some, I looked at all the 20m OW quickly) but not many.

 

Remove the horror genre that can still often do it and you end up with:

 

1. Dunkirk: 50.5m
2. Central Intelligence: 35.5m
3. Sully: 35m
4. Girls Trip: 31m
5. Accountant: 24.7m
6. Arrival: 24m
7. Bad Moms: 23.8
8. The Boss: 23.5m
9. Baby Driver: 20.5m
10. Deepwater Horizon 20.2m

 

Only 10 non horror live action movies achieved this in more than 18 months:

 

• they either had giant 100m+ budget like Dunkirk/Deepwater Horizon,
• had one of the biggest movie star playing the perfect role the audience prefer them to see them play at the domestic market like Hanks/Mccarthy/Kevin Hart-Dwayne Johnson together,
• or a very high level of buzz like Baby Driver/Arrival or trailers that were giant hits and played extremely well to audience like Accoutant/Bad Moms/Girl Trip with an very easy to sell to co-workers/friend high concept, that marketing made really clear that part Hitman bodyguard has it.

 

It is something that only happen around 13% of the weekends to achieve that 20m bar (that is why it is still the bar of who are the biggest rare superstar box office draw of Denzel Washington level if you achieve to do it for a that is sold mostly on the star).

 

 

 

I disagree.

 

There are plenty of films that don't reach that $20M mark, that fall very damn close it though. Atomic Blonde is a recent example of this. The hype for that film was almost non-existent by the time it released and it still managed a $18.5M weekend. A lot of films fall in that $18M OW range and typically their hype isn't all that much or is selective to a group. Trying to find hype for films that are going to open $20M or less is extremely difficult.  

 

Hence why I said an original film like this one would need said hype if it was going to open in the $30M range. But for it to open high teens or to reach $20M, it doesn't require a level of substantial hype. 

 

Edited to say I agree with you that a movie needs hype to open above $20M lol 

 

I just think a film that opens under $20M is a lot harder to predict it's hype level but that films that don't have quite the hype or that we may feel don't have a lot of hype, can still come really close to it. 

 

Edited August 12, 2017 by Nova

[Jonwo]

I wonder why later marketing didn't play up on the whole spoofing The Bodyguard. Lionsgate drop the ball there, I still think it's going to do decent business and at $30m, it doesn't need to do huge numbers either. 

[Barnack]

5 minutes ago, Nova said:

I disagree.

 

There are plenty of films that don't reach that $20M mark, that fall very damn close it though. Atomic Blonde is a recent example of this. The hype for that film was almost non-existent by the time it released and it still managed a $18.5M weekend. A lot of films fall in that $18M OW range and typically their hype isn't all that much or is selective to a group. Trying to find hype for films that are going to open $20M or less is extremely difficult.  

 

Hence why I said an original film like this one would need said hype if it was going to open in the $30M range. But for it to open high teens or to reach $20M, it doesn't require a level of substantial hype. 

Pre-release Hype/talks for Atomic Blonde was quite big, Baywatch, Ghost in a shell, BFG, etc...

 

You are going a bit on the reverse here, yes movie with massive hype that didn't reach 20m OW (outside christmas release like Wolf of Wall street) will be rare, that is not my point, my point was that you need quite a high level of hype to reach that big 20m OW mark, almost no non-sequel/ip live-action achieve to do that, those who did it had quite a big hype.

 

Try to find the last non-ip non horror live action to achieve a 20m that you would say did not had not much going for it, you will probably see a big box office draw involved (and that has quite fans that do not participate to the zeitgeist much).

[Nova]

Just now, Barnack said:

Pre-release Hype/talks for Atomic Blonde was quite big, Baywatch, Ghost in a shell, BFG, etc...

 

You are going a bit on the reverse here, yes movie with massive hype that didn't reach 20m OW (outside christmas release like Wolf of Wall street) will be rare, that is not my point, my point was that you need quite a high level of hype to reach that big 20m OW mark, almost no non-sequel/ip live-action achieve to do that, those who did it had quite a big hype.

 

Try to find the last non-ip non horror live action to achieve a 20m that you would say did not had not much going for it, you will probably see a big box office draw involved (and that has quite fans that do not participate to the zeitgeist much).

See that's where I disagree and why I don't think you can measure hype for films that open in the high teens. 

 

When they were released I didn't see any hype for Baywatch, Atomic Blonde or Ghost In The Shell. Was there hype for them when the trailers dropped? Sure. But there was hype for this film when it's first trailer dropped as well. But after that, I didn't think those three movies maintained that hype. Baywatch had shit reviews. Atomic Blonde's hype was just gone, and Ghost In The Shell got so-so reviews but was plagued by the white washing controversy. 

 

But in terms of hype and people wanting to go see them? I didn't see/feel it. Which is why I wasn't surprised when they opened where they did. 

[Barnack]

Maybe I'm looking at it uncorrectly (Not following box office for a long time), but could you list the last 5 non-ip/sequel non horror live action movie to achieve an 20m OW that you would say did not had not that much going for it (or at least a mega box office draw in a lead role) according to you ? I'm curious how far you will need to back for that.

[That One Girl]

21 minutes ago, Barnack said:

but could you list the last 5 non-ip/sequel non horror live action movie to achieve an 20m OW

 

Dunkirk

Girls Trip

Baby Driver

All Eyez on Me

The Accountant

 

(Hidden Figures and Arrival weren't included since based on books/short stories or whatever)

[Barnack]

4 minutes ago, That Floating Guy said:

 

Dunkirk

Girls Trip

Baby Driver

All Eyez on Me

The Accountant

 

(Hidden Figures and Arrival weren't included since based on books/short stories or whatever)

You did the important part of the message that you would say did not had not that much going for it, I already listed all the movie to do it (All eyez on me was a biopic about a big name to do that first weekend big number)

 

The statement was, you do not need much hype to get 20m OW.

 

I said that you need a lot of hype for a non-ip/non horror live action to do it (relative to the 500 or so of those released every year), you need either the great trailer + high concept that gather lot of positive traction like Bad Moms/Accoutant, giant budget/director (Dunkirk), lot of buzz like Baby Driver, Arrival, Hidden figures from is platform release.

Edited August 13, 2017 by Barnack

[baumer]

Going to stay out of this thread now until the movie comes out.  With the exception of IT, this is the most excited I am for a film for the next month.  I don't want to see any review talk, embargo talk, box office problems and so on.  Thanks for all your positivity Nova and I'm glad you enjoyed it.   I'm sure I'm going to love it too.

[Nova]

1 hour ago, Barnack said:

Maybe I'm looking at it uncorrectly (Not following box office for a long time), but could you list the last 5 non-ip/sequel non horror live action movie to achieve an 20m OW that you would say did not had not that much going for it (or at least a mega box office draw in a lead role) according to you ? I'm curious how far you will need to back for that.

What do you consider not much going for it though? How would you define that? 

 

Thats where my argument comes in. 

 

People talk about hype as if you can  measure it in a quantitative matter. For huge films, I think you can which is why I agree with you that if a film opens above $20M, there is a way to measure that. I wasn't disagreeing with you in regards to that. Although in my opinion that number is closer to $25M. 

 

Anyways my point is how do you measure the plethora of films who just fall short of that mark? The ones who hit $18M or $19M. The ones that are right on that $20M cut off mark. How do you determine how much "hype" a film needs to get a high teens opening? It's those films that we either grossly overestimate or underestimate, imo. 

 

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, Nova said:

What do you consider not much going for it though? How would you define that? 

 

For some like Dunkirk it is obvious, but it is me trying to get what was your level when you said a movie does not need a lot of hype to reach a 20m OW.

 

My question/proposed exercise was: what would be the last 5 live action (non-ip/sequel/horror) that according to you didn't had much hype that achieve that mark (say 19.5 to 20, because you are right that the difference between 19.8 and 20.2 is nothing).

 

I think by doing it (I could be wrong) you would say that the movie needed to have good stuff going for it (good level of hype) to reach it.

 

Hype would be hard to clearly define, media presence, star/director clout, reviews early word of mouth hyping it, trailer that get huge score on ispottv, people responding to an high concept, etc...

[baumer]

See, this is the kind of review that bothers me.  He gives it 2.5/4 because he says the story has been done before in better films like The Gauntlet and Midnight Run.  WTF!!

 

Midnight Run came out 30 years ago and the Gauntlet 40 years ago.  How about judge the movie for what it is not because it's been done by two films that came out 100 years ago.

 

Then he goes on to say that he enjoyed a lot of it, especially Jackson, Reynolds and Hayek.

 

Then he says that having Oldman as a European bad guy is a cliche.  WTF!!!

 

It fucking takes place in Europe.  Would you rather them have a Canadian bad guy who continuously says KILL THEM YOU HOSERS.....or....."YOU'RE DEAD NOW EH!"

 

Some reviews are morons.  This guys sits up top in the moron heap.

http://www.nj.com/entertainment/index.ssf/2017/08/the_hitmans_bodyguard_review_ryan_reynolds_on_the.html