Best Animated Feature - 2016: Zootopia, Moana, Kubo, Zucchini, Red Turtle

[yjs]

8 hours ago, cannastop said:

Awards Circuit September 26

 

http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-predictions/best-animated-feature/

 

1. “Moana” – (Walt Disney Pictures)
2. “Zootopia” – (Walt Disney Pictures)
3. “Kubo and the Two Strings” – (Laika)
4. “The Red Turtle” – (Sony Pictures Classics)
5. “Miss Hokusai” – (GKIDS)

 

6. “Finding Dory” – (Pixar)
7. “Sing” – (Universal Pictures)
8. “April & the Extraordinary World” – (GKIDS)
9. “The Secret Life of Pets” – (Illumination)
10. “The Little Prince” – (Netflix)

It's still that #5 spot that's up for grabs.

 

think it'll be the battle between Sing and Dory with Sing having a slight edge coming off the Christmas season. 

[Jason]

2 hours ago, yjs said:

think it'll be the battle between Sing and Dory with Sing having a slight edge coming off the Christmas season. 

 

I'm betting on either Dory or one of the GKIDS releases. Making the usual statistical assumptions, Sing has only a 4.4% chance of exceeding Dory's average rating on RT. I suspect that the Animation branch will receive it similarly to critics overall, and won't be influenced by its more recent release. (I think that's more of a factor in the Academy-wide voting for the winner rather than the nomination process.)

[TalismanRing]

On 9/30/2016 at 9:37 AM, cannastop said:

Awards Circuit September 26

 

http://www.awardscircuit.com/oscar-predictions/best-animated-feature/

 

1. “Moana” – (Walt Disney Pictures)
2. “Zootopia” – (Walt Disney Pictures)
3. “Kubo and the Two Strings” – (Laika)
4. “The Red Turtle” – (Sony Pictures Classics)
5. “Miss Hokusai” – (GKIDS)

 

6. “Finding Dory” – (Pixar)
7. “Sing” – (Universal Pictures)
8. “April & the Extraordinary World” – (GKIDS)
9. “The Secret Life of Pets” – (Illumination)
10. “The Little Prince” – (Netflix)

It's still that #5 spot that's up for grabs.

 

 

The Little Prince in tenth is an injustice that pains me.  That it is under SLOP is an abomination.

 

 

Edited October 2, 2016 by TalismanRing

[SLAM!]

2 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

 

 

The Little Prince in tenth is an injustice that pains me.  That it is under SLOP is an abomination.

 

 

 

I'd put Little Prince in 9th and replace SLOP with either My Life as a Courgette or The Long Way North, personally.

[Gabriel Sales]

19 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

 

 

The Little Prince in tenth is an injustice that pains me.  That it is under SLOP is an abomination.

 

 

 

I agree with you!

In my opinion remains only a vague, possible nominees for this latest wave are: Sing, April & the Extraordinary World, Miss Hokusai and The Little Prince. Moana should not be among the possible nominees because it was even released.

 

Certain of an appointment are:

- Zootopia
- Kubo and the Two Strings
- The Red Turtle
- Finding Dory
- Last appointment: Sing, April & the Extraordinary World, Miss Hokusai and The Little Prince.

 

**Recalling that The Little Prince won the César (French Oscar) for best animation. Defeating including April & the Extraordinary World.

[SchumacherFTW]

If "Your Name" gets a US release I'd drop the Red Turtle out. 

[cannastop]

8 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

If "Your Name" gets a US release I'd drop the Red Turtle out. 

I wouldn't. Ghibli still has a lot more prestige. We don't know if American critics will even like Your Name.

Edited October 3, 2016 by cannastop

[SchumacherFTW]

2 minutes ago, cannastop said:

I wouldn't. Ghibli's still has a lot more prestige. We don't know if American critics will even like Your Name.

It's not a Ghibli film out right though. And it even bombed in Japan, so why would the academy care. Given the scale of Your Name's success and acclaim, I can't see it missing out of it has a qualifying run this year. 

[cannastop]

17 hours ago, SchumacherFTW said:

It's not a Ghibli film out right though. And it even bombed in Japan, so why would the academy care. Given the scale of Your Name's success and acclaim, I can't see it missing out of it has a qualifying run this year. 

The Red Turtle has a reputation of being an aesthetically fulfilling film, which the animation branch cares a lot about.

 

All we know about Your Name is that it's making a lot of money in Japan. So did The Boy and the Beast, but that didn't get an Oscar nom either.

 

However, if Your Name is released this year, and it manages to get buzz, I think that it will most likely join Moana, Zootopia, Kubo, and The Red Turtle rather than knock one of them out.

Edited October 4, 2016 by cannastop

[Travod]

Unless Moana is the end all be all, I see Zootopia winning this easily.

[Jason]

On 10/2/2016 at 6:23 PM, TalismanRing said:

The Little Prince in tenth is an injustice that pains me.  That it is under SLOP is an abomination.

 

I wouldn't let it rankle too much, it doesn't actually mean that Pets or Sing has a better chance of getting the nomination, just that Awards Circuit is probably wrong.

 

I examined the average RT ratings of all nominees and eligible films in 2013, 2014, and 2015. I used average RT ratings as a proxy for how the Animation branch might be likely to view films because RT ratings come from a wider sample than Metacritic and don't apply any secret weights. I compared CG animated films to non-CG animated films, since there's some evidence to suggest that the Animation branch has higher expectations for CG films relative to critics (The Lego Movie "snub").

 

In 2013, two CG animated films were nominated with ratings of 6.6 (DM2) and 6.5 (Croods). In that year, there were only two non-CG animated films to significantly* exceed those ratings, both of which were nominated (Ernest and Celestine, The Wind Rises). The only film that had a significantly higher rating to not be nominated was Cloudy 2. *(from a statistical standpoint)

 

In 2014, the lowest CG animated film had a rating of 7.3 (BH6). There were only two non-CG animated films to significantly exceed that rating, both of which were nominated (Song of the Sea, Princess Kayuga). The only film with a significantly higher rating to not be nominated was The Lego Movie. Even if you make no distinction between CG and non-CG films, only two films with a significantly higher rating than the lowest nominated film (Boxtrolls, 7.0) missed the nomination.

 

In 2015, Inside Out had a rating of 8.9 and the next highest CG animated film had a rating of 7.1 (Peanuts). Of the five non-CG animated films with a rating greater than Peanuts, the maximum possible four were nominated.

 

Pets has an average rating of 6.2. There are already eight films with a significantly higher rating, so at least four of those will have to miss the nomination for Pets to sneak in, which would be unprecedented. In my opinion, Pets has no chance at all.

 

Based on the early reviews and making the usual statistical assumptions (which are sound for the other films I've examined), Sing has only a 10% chance of exceeding a rating of 7.3 (rating of The Little Prince). There are already four non-CG animated films to significantly exceed that rating (Kubo, Red Turtle, April, My Life as a Courgette), as well as two CG animated films (Zootopia, Dory). For Sing to be nominated either all of the other CG animated films will need to miss, or at least one significantly higher non-CG film would have to miss. Both of these scenarios are unprecedented, and this is a reasonably-best-case scenario for Sing's final average rating.

 

The Little Prince already has a rating of 7.3 instead of a 10% chance of reaching it, so it has a better chance than Sing in my view. It may also benefit from being partly in stop-motion.

 

I think Finding Dory, April and the Extraordinary World, and My Life as a Courgette are the most likely contenders for the 5th spot. I consider Miss Hokusai to be somewhat less likely than those three, partly from average rating but also because April won over Hokusai at the 2015 Annecy International Film Festival, and Courgette is the 2016 winner. The Little Prince would be next on my list, based on the fact it is mostly CG. (Average rating isn't much lower than the others and it did beat April at the César Awards.)

Edited October 4, 2016 by Jason

[chasmmi]

I would say that if Moana is a critical success, Dory will not get a nomination. I don't see Disney (umbrella) taking 3 of the 5 spots. Even if they were far and away the three best animations of the year, I would still expect one to miss out.

 

On the assumption that Moana is great i would go:

 

Zootopia

Moana

Kubo

Something foreign (I've not seen the Non-US competition to be more specific than that)

Then Potentially Sing (expecially if it is clearly better than Dory) or another foreign entry (It should be Kung Fu Panda 3 in my opinion, but I know that isn't happening) 

 

[cannastop]

1 hour ago, chasmmi said:

Then Potentially Sing (expecially if it is clearly better than Dory) or another foreign entry (It should be Kung Fu Panda 3 in my opinion, but I know that isn't happening) 

 

 

Sing already has reviews, and it looks like critics are less enthusiastic about it than Dory. Disney would have 3 nominees before Illumination has one.

Edited October 4, 2016 by cannastop

[Mojoguy]

The three big Disney movies will end up splitting the votes between each other, and a smaller movie will end up winning the prize.

When that happens Disney will decide to go back to releasing one WDAS and one Pixar movie every year.

Edited October 5, 2016 by Mojoguy

[cannastop]

1 hour ago, Mojoguy said:

The three big Disney movies will end up splitting the votes between each other, and a smaller movie will end up winning the prize.

When that happens Disney will decide to go back to releasing one WDAS and one Pixar movie every year.

That's not going to happen. Biggest movie will win.

 

Also, I don't think they care about releasing three movies from WDAS/Pixar in a year. They're planning on doing it again in 2018 and 2020.

[Mojoguy]

That's not going to happen. Biggest movie will win.

Also, I don't think they care about releasing three movies from WDAS/Pixar in a year. They're planning on doing it again in 2018 and 2020.

It already happened when Lilo and Stitch and Treasure Planet split the vote which led to Spirited Away winning.

Edited October 5, 2016 by Mojoguy

[SchumacherFTW]

9 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

It already happened when Lilo and Stitch and Treasure Planet split the vote which led to Spirited Away winning.

Best movie won that year, by a country mile. 

[Jason]

17 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

It already happened when Lilo and Stitch and Treasure Planet split the vote which led to Spirited Away winning.

 

I would suggest that Spirited Away won because it was a much stronger contender than either of those films, not because of vote splitting. Average RT rating of Spirited Away is 8.6, Lilo & Stitch 7.3, Treasure Planet 6.5.

Edited October 5, 2016 by Jason

[AniNate]

Yeah, I don't think anyone truly thought Treasure Planet was the best animated film that year

[yjs]

3 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

It already happened when Lilo and Stitch and Treasure Planet split the vote which led to Spirited Away winning.

 

Spirited Away had been a frontrunner by far miles winning the freaking best picture at Berlin film festival and an international box office juggernaut ($275M WW, even bigger than Lilo's $273M) despite the fact that most of its income came from Japan whereas Treasure Planet was considered as one of the biggest flop ever for Disney ($110M WW), hitting the new low for them. And its reviews were just above average, nothing special. It was basically what TGD was for Pixar 2015 for Disney 2002. Besides Spirited Away was also distributed by Disney, so.

Edited October 5, 2016 by yjs