Monday: Zootopia makes $3.72 million, Allegiant $2.02M, Heaven $1.35M, 10 Cloverfield $1.23M, Deadpool $0.87M

[BadAtGender]

I think we tend to think about brand boosts in the wrong way. The discussions are often couched as something that raises the ceiling of the follow-up films, but I think instead what it does is establish a higher floor.

 

Frozen didn't turn BH6 into a must-see film. We discussed a lot about how it had much bigger potential because of WDAS (and because of Marvel). While there might have been a top-end effect, it was probably only to raise it from WIR levels of success to what it did. 15-20% or so.

 

And because of that, expectations for Zootopia were more muted. Back down to that WIR-BH6 range. It's obviously blown well beyond those, but it did it because of the film itself, not the WDAS brand.

 

What we can do with Moana is establish a higher baseline. If you draw out a range of possible results, from 100m-400m (TPATF to Frozen), and we account for the brand popularity, maybe that lower end is now up to 150m. 

 

And Brand popularity is a tenuous thing. Pixar had established one for itself way back when, but it's clear in the post-TS3 era it's taken a beating. Even one great performance from IO isn't going to immediately shift it back on track. 

 

 

Could Moana do that $400m again? Sure. But I wouldn't take it as a given right now. We need to see what the marketing's like. We need to see if Disney is basically going to go into Star Wars and only Star Wars mode again for the last three months of the year. We need to see the film itself. Frozen got there because of insane word of mouth. Even if Moana opens higher (not a given), it will still need to really click in order to do the same.

[Chaz]

4 hours ago, Dan9 said:

 

Looks likely even when you don't mention Rogue One 

I keep forgetting that this is releasing this year.

[SteveJaros]

Anyone else think Zootopia's numbers the past week have been inflated by a desire to see this movie before the Batman/Superman tidal wave hits?

[cannastop]

5 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

Anyone else think Zootopia's numbers the past week have been inflated by a desire to see this movie before the Batman/Superman tidal wave hits?

No. The general audience doesn't give a shit about that. And it's not like there aren't enough movie screens in America to show more than two movies at a time.