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cannastop

Monday: Zootopia makes $3.72 million, Allegiant $2.02M, Heaven $1.35M, 10 Cloverfield $1.23M, Deadpool $0.87M

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For those outside the US Easter is a big family day, similar to the 4th of July which depresses film going (yes it makes no sense when you compare that Christmas is also a family day.) However unlike other holidays Easter is exclusively on Sundays A day that already sees declines so it exasperates the depression that's already there. This is corrected by better than normal holds the monday after. 

 

Conversely, Good Friday plays like Christmas with a large percentage of people being off compared to normal which is why Thursday sees better holds and then Friday does a disproportionate amount of the weekends business. 

 

Also if you looked at historical trends, the Zootopia number is not surprising since it is the monday before which is part of the spring break corridoor. 

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1 minute ago, narniadis said:

For those outside the US Easter is a big family day, similar to the 4th of July which depresses film going (yes it makes no sense when you compare that Christmas is also a family day.) However unlike other holidays Easter is exclusively on Sundays A day that already sees declines so it exasperates the depression that's already there. This is corrected by better than normal holds the monday after. 

 

Conversely, Good Friday plays like Christmas with a large percentage of people being off compared to normal which is why Thursday sees better holds and then Friday does a disproportionate amount of the weekends business. 

 

Also if you looked at historical trends, the Zootopia number is not surprising since it is the monday before which is part of the spring break corridoor. 

I've looked at the records from Box Office Mojo, and I don't see Easter Sunday as a big drop off from its previous Saturday. Is the weekend itself depressed?

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9 minutes ago, cannastop said:

I've looked at the records from Box Office Mojo, and I don't see Easter Sunday as a big drop off from its previous Saturday. Is the weekend itself depressed?

 

To a point - the bigger Friday makes the saturday-Sunday look weaker it is more noticable with the new releases who already are dealing with upfront demand. 

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52 minutes ago, cannastop said:

I've looked at the records from Box Office Mojo, and I don't see Easter Sunday as a big drop off from its previous Saturday. Is the weekend itself depressed?

 

I've looked through the records as well for the past 3 years and while there is a pattern of daily increases on Thursday, the rest of the dailies for Friday, Saturday and Sunday are very hard to gauge if the 'drop off' seen on Saturday is an actual drop off, per se.

 

Let's say X movie grosses $1 mill on Wednesday then bumps up to $1.2 mill on Thursday (a day that normally sees 10-20% drops), then goes to $2.7 mill on Friday. It's then 'even' on Saturday (usually an increase day) and has a typical Sunday drop or maybe slightly more. Is the weekend number actually depressed or are the drops just different due to a higher starting point from Thursday/Friday? Are the Saturday & Sunday numbers actually depressed or does it just appear so because of the aforementioned? Looking at weekend to weekend drops might give us some clues.

 

The weekend before Easter 2014, CA: Winter Soldier dropped 56.6%. It dropped 38% on Easter.

Divergent dropped 43.1% the weekend before, but only dropped 24% on Easter.

 

The weekend before Easter 2015, Cinderella dropped 51.3%. It only dropped 40.3% on Easter.

Insurgent dropped 58.8% the weekend prior and 53% the weekend of Easter.

On the other hand, Kingsman dropped 35.9% the weekend prior and 39% the weekend of Easter.

 

There's no clear pattern, as far as I can tell, which would unequivocally show that Easter weekend earnings are actually depressed.

Edited by Intergalactic Ping Pong
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5 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

Allegiant had a better hold on first Monday than both Divergent and Insurgent

It held better due to Holy Week which inflates week days before Easter weekend. Easter 2014 was April 20, a month after Divergent was released and Easter 2015 was April 5, two weeks after Insurgent was released. Easter 2016 (March 27) lies just a week after Allegiant opens. ;)

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5 hours ago, narniadis said:

Lol Cannastop it's not doing 32m this weekend. That 3.7m figure is exactly where it needs to be for the Monday before Easter. Zoo will make between 25-28m this weekend. Friday will be big but Saturday will be flat or decline and Sunday will drop big.

 

Matter of fact this Friday could be close to or over this past Friday before correcting the rest of the weekend. 

Alright, after looking up what usually happens on Easter weekend, I'm changing my prediction back to $29 million. It's on the high end because I'm still a sucker.

Edited by cannastop
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With $300 million for Zootopia, $220 million for the Jungle Book, $380 million for Finding Dory, $315 million for Civil War, $200 million for Moana and $185 million for Doctor Strange, are we looking at Disney winning 2016? Looks likely.

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