Gavin Feng Posted June 20, 2017 Share Posted June 20, 2017 1 hour ago, a2knet said: Is something like 135-140m USD OW and 285-300m USD total likely? I have total lack of experience in China bo but that's what it feels like. Have given an OW marginally higher than 2/3rds of F8 and then better legs, just north of 2x. I still can't see how this film will be close to F8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted June 20, 2017 Share Posted June 20, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, Gavin Feng said: I still can't see how this film will be close to F8 yeah the pre-sales are significantly behind and even with better legs these days crossing ~2.2x for large openers seems like the ceiling (ignoring exceptions). $150m ow, 2.2x, $330m total seems like the max scenario (writing as some not well versed with China bo). Edited June 20, 2017 by a2knet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted June 20, 2017 Share Posted June 20, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, a2knet said: Is something like 135-140m USD OW and 285-300m USD total likely? I have total lack of experience in China bo but that's what it feels like. Have given an OW marginally higher than 2/3rds of F8 and then better legs, just north of 2x. By the looks of PS it sounds about right. I'm thinking your high end is the probable number unless WoM is horrible and with big WoM FF7s $390m is possible The last one did $320m but the XR has decreased by 10%. So $290m would be on par in yuan. Following CA3 as it has. PS today should reach 40m. 60m tomorrow. 105m final. 3x PS for OD MN/FSS- 30/315/390/290 1025/$150m OW +/-5% Edited June 20, 2017 by POTUS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted June 20, 2017 Share Posted June 20, 2017 Looks like TF5 will have sold increase today of around 40%. Tomorrow it should have 50% increase and may be 60-70% increase on thursday. Final PS between 100-110 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abra Posted June 20, 2017 Share Posted June 20, 2017 T5 The Fate of the Furious M YUAN SHOWTIMES [13 days+ 2 hours] MN: 0.42m OD: 1.48m Sat: 0.78m [12 days+ 10 hours] MN: 1.04m OD: 3.08m Sat: 1.85m [12 days+ 0 hours] MN: 1.79m OD: 5.04m Sat: 2.52m [11 days+ 0 hours] MN: 2.95m OD: 8.24m Sat: 3.54m [10 days+ 0 hours] MN: 0.06m OD: 0.09m Sat: 0.07m 679 2831 1879 MN: 3.85m OD: 10.97m Sat: 4.46m [9 days+ 0 hours] MN: 1.41m OD: 2.47m Sat: 1.54m 6578 35134 23631 MN: 4.95m OD: 14.20m Sat: 5.64m [6 days+ 0 hours] MN: 4.63m OD: 13.23m Sat: 7.53m 9884 77126 55438 MN: 9.78m OD: 32.87m Sat: 13.48m [5 days+ 0 hours] MN: 5.64m OD: 17,03m Sat: 9.69m 10167 81413 59106 MN: 11,29m OD: 39,31m Sat: 16.94m [4 days+ 0 hours] MN: 6.81m OD: 21.55m Sat: 12.17m 10329 85487 62548 MN: 13,35m OD: 47,42m Sat: 21.11m [3 days+ 0 hours] MN: 8.40m OD: 29.12m Sat: 16.07m 10763 94721 70452 MN: 17.15m OD: 62.15m Sat: 28.12m [2 days+ 0 hours] MN: 10.87m OD: 40.70m Sat: 22.81m 11224 111124 84148 MN: 20.99m OD: 81,95m Sat: 38.83m 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted June 21, 2017 Author Share Posted June 21, 2017 It is more and more likely to open under 1B yuan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, Olive said: It is more and more likely to open under 1B yuan Is there any maoyan prediction for its OD. That will give some perspective. Its run rate is around 1m per hour. But it should go up later this evening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted June 21, 2017 Author Share Posted June 21, 2017 Its OD presales are only 38% better than RE6 and they're getting closer by time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted June 21, 2017 Author Share Posted June 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said: Is there any maoyan prediction for its OD. That will give some perspective. Its run rate is around 1m per hour. But it should go up later this evening. On thursday night we'll have Friday predictions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 when is the main competition for TF5? Since it has school holidays and if no competition I am sure it is going to end up with a fine gross Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 At this point and, unless something strange happens, I have already asumed that to reach TF4 Yuan gross is becoming hard. This franchise seems too fan headed to dismiss the meh presales data. Considering that the film seems to not have too much action and with runs more and more frontloaded, I am not too optimistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 Another late evening explodes like crazy, its not coming close to 50% increase. 40% increase at best. I dont see how this is going to hit 100m PS. Could stop at 90-95m PS. Could see OD around 270-300m. high end is still not bad. but if its PS heavy like fate, its going to be horrible. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 975m yuan (143m usd) ow will leave it requiring 2.1x for 2050m yuan (300m usd) total. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 I hope china's chinese could wake up and realise how awful is this movie, and stop support it!!! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said: Another late evening explodes like crazy, its not coming close to 50% increase. 40% increase at best. I dont see how this is going to hit 100m PS. Could stop at 90-95m PS. Could see OD around 270-300m. high end is still not bad. but if its PS heavy like fate, its going to be horrible. It's starting to look like a, second largest OW of all time/letdown. Then it does 4x PS.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 47 minutes ago, POTUS said: It's starting to look like a, second largest OW of all time/letdown. Then it does 4x PS.... Even with 4x it wont hit Fate OD. Anyway I am skeptical a movie this big can do 4x PS. Even 3x will be tough. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abra Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 T5 The Fate of the Furious M YUAN SHOWTIMES [13 days+ 2 hours] MN: 0.42m OD: 1.48m Sat: 0.78m [12 days+ 10 hours] MN: 1.04m OD: 3.08m Sat: 1.85m [12 days+ 0 hours] MN: 1.79m OD: 5.04m Sat: 2.52m [11 days+ 0 hours] MN: 2.95m OD: 8.24m Sat: 3.54m [10 days+ 0 hours] MN: 0.06m OD: 0.09m Sat: 0.07m 679 2831 1879 MN: 3.85m OD: 10.97m Sat: 4.46m [9 days+ 0 hours] MN: 1.41m OD: 2.47m Sat: 1.54m 6578 35134 23631 MN: 4.95m OD: 14.20m Sat: 5.64m [6 days+ 0 hours] MN: 4.63m OD: 13.23m Sat: 7.53m 9884 77126 55438 MN: 9.78m OD: 32.87m Sat: 13.48m [5 days+ 0 hours] MN: 5.64m OD: 17,03m Sat: 9.69m 10167 81413 59106 MN: 11,29m OD: 39,31m Sat: 16.94m [4 days+ 0 hours] MN: 6.81m OD: 21.55m Sat: 12.17m 10329 85487 62548 MN: 13,35m OD: 47,42m Sat: 21.11m [3 days+ 0 hours] MN: 8.40m OD: 29.12m Sat: 16.07m 10763 94721 70452 MN: 17.15m OD: 62.15m Sat: 28.12m [2 days+ 0 hours] MN: 10.87m OD: 40.70m Sat: 22.81m 11224 111124 84148 MN: 20.99m OD: 81,95m Sat: 38.83m [1 days+ 0 hours] MN: 14.91m OD: 55.15m Sat: 31.00m 12008 131137 101253 MN: 26.57m OD: 103.99m Sat: 52.12m 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 35.5% PS increase is meh. Just like Fate, final week increases are muted bcos its big. I guess tomorrow also a 60-65% increase is more likely than something bigger. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 age of extinction broke $1b largely thank to china, i hope chinese can take their responsibilities to bring down this billion giant this round Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 9 minutes ago, titanic2187 said: age of extinction broke $1b largely thank to china, i hope chinese can take their responsibilities to bring down this billion giant this round A movie doing well isn't the end of the world 8 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
