charlie Jatinder Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Not the Blockbuster start to the sales for CNY. No where close to last year. The final days boost can significantly change things. Expecting ~¥300M final pre-sales for OD for Watergate Bridge. That shall be able to give ¥500M range OD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 500? Seems kind of pathetic for a CNY OD sequel to recent all time grosser. I have been paying very little attention to this market recently though 😆 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Yeah kind of pathetic but all depend on final days. Can even see 700M from here. Which again is bleh. As always things actually start getting interesting by day 3, so let's see who won that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
porginchina Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Presales for the top five Spring Festival releases, as of the end of the day 1.24 (one week until start of Spring Festival) 长津湖之水门桥 (Battle at Lake Changjin II) — 58.2 million RMB / 9.19 million USD 奇迹·笨小孩 (Nice View) — 23.8 million RMB / 3.76 million USD 四海 (Only Fools Rush In) — 22.0 million RMB / 3.48 million USD 这个杀手不太冷静 (Too Cool to Kill) — 18.9 million RMB / 2.98 million USD 狙击手 (Snipers) — 12.3 million RMB / 1.78 million USD Looks like it'll be an underwhelming year of Spring Festival… assume the week will be large enough to give the overall Chinese box office a commanding lead over the US/Canada through the end of February, but the US should have a good chance of taking the worldwide lead before too much of 2022 is past. Big question is whether anything other than Changjin II can break out as the holiday continues (so far, Changjin II is accounting for about 40% of all presales) 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchumacherFTW Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Maybe the crazy demand last year was more down to the cinemas lacking worthwhile content for over a year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issac Newton Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 (edited) This Year anticipation is still struggling to reach 1M (WGB at 987K), I doubt but overall competition is dependent on WOM or patriotism. 2021 Lunar New Year Anticipation (Actuals) per Maoyan 1️⃣ Detective Chinatown 3 : 4,468,547 2️⃣ Hi Mom : 1,162,302 3️⃣ The Yin Yang Master : 537,583 4️⃣ A Writer's Odyssey : 500,948 5️⃣ Boonie Bear: The Wild Life : 390,157 Edited January 25, 2022 by Issac Newton Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 hour ago, SchumacherFTW said: Maybe the crazy demand last year was more down to the cinemas lacking worthwhile content for over a year? China had 800, National day releases and A Little Red Flower before CNY. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
porginchina Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I think last year's crazy demand was mostly due to the movies in question… Detective Chinatown 3 was the sequel to the widely-liked, super-successful Detective Chinatown 2 and was supported by a multi-year marketing campaign (thanks in part to Covid-19 delays), plus had years of speculation about its plot/world-building to build the hype, hence the crazy anticipation figures and presales. Hi Mom had popular actors and turned out to be super crowd-pleasing (I think it might have done some strategic pre-release screenings to build online buzz? can't remember for sure). This year's crop is simply not as exciting. Really, the entire Chinese box office has been in the doldrums since summer; a few reasonably impressive successes but nothing that's truly shattered expectations outside of The Battle at Lake Changjin (which, I'd argue, is at least partially offset by relative box office disappointments like 1921, Chinese Doctors, and My Country, My Parents). 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 This year we have sequel to the new all time high grosser, yet it’s much less hype than sequel to DC2? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 10 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said: This year we have sequel to the new all time high grosser, yet it’s much less hype than sequel to DC2? Not an actual All Time Grosser may be 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
porginchina Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 10 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said: This year we have sequel to the new all time high grosser, yet it’s much less hype than sequel to DC2? As far as measurable online metrics… yes (which does partially explain why DC3 was so epically front-loaded). It's definitely worth noting that Battle at Lake Changjin didn't open astronomically huge on its first day; I also suspect that DC3's blend of broad comedy and murder mystery made for more immediately appealing holiday viewing than Battle at Lake Changjin II's mix of fierce violence and lots of soldiers freezing to death. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 (edited) Edited January 25, 2022 by Gavin Feng 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issac Newton Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Water Gate Bridge a.k.a. The Battle At Lake Changjin II (长津湖之水门桥) successfully passed ¥100M in advance booking for Spring Festival OD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Why TF is there a surge in pace today. Guess I am just gonna ignore CNY if Lake Changjin 2 do some shady numbers. @Gavin Feng is there any other film that has strong WOM hype. Like I remember in 2019, Pegasus and Crazy Alien were leading pre-sales but we all were basically looking at The Wandering Earth. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I won't be surprised with final 500M+ pre-sales with the trend for today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 12 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: Why TF is there a surge in pace today. Guess I am just gonna ignore CNY if Lake Changjin 2 do some shady numbers. @Gavin Feng is there any other film that has strong WOM hype. Like I remember in 2019, Pegasus and Crazy Alien were leading pre-sales but we all were basically looking at The Wandering Earth. Most movies meet their higher growths about 5 days before opening. At this point, everything look faithful for Changjin sequel. ¥300M-plus final pre-sale is very likely. Have a shot at what Monster Hunt 2 made (¥367M). $100M-plus OD should happen for this movie. But total box office for the first day of CNY (Feb.1) is likely to go into a decline (Last year it was ¥1,692M. It's unclear if ¥1,458M from the same day of 2019 could be reached). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said: Most movies meet their higher growths about 5 days before opening The ones I have had their bigger surge on T-4th day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
porginchina Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Presales for the top five Spring Festival releases on opening day, as of the end of the day 1.27 China time (four full days to go) 长津湖之水门桥 (Battle at Lake Changjin II) — 110 million RMB / 17.6 million USD 奇迹·笨小孩 (Nice View) — 38.6 million RMB / 6.17 million USD 四海 (Only Fools Rush In) — 34.6 million RMB / 5.53 million USD 这个杀手不太冷静 (Too Cool to Kill) — 32.1 million RMB / 5.14 million USD 狙击手 (Snipers) — 17.5 million RMB / 2.80 million USD Overall still kinda underwhelming. Overall Spring Festival presales (for Feb. 1 alone) are at ~253 million RMB / 40.5 million USD, with Changjin II at 43.6% of that figure. The movie does seem to be following a fairly linear pattern so far; will be interesting to see if/when it spikes as opening day draws nearer. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 ¥61 ATP for Lake Changjin II. The fuck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 @charlie Jatinder any predictions in terms of ow for lake2 ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
