Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

[Olive]

[2 days + 4.5 hours]

Doctor Strange
Midnight presales 1.02m
OD presales 5.9M
 
[2days + 5.5 hours]
Fantastic Beasts
Midnight presales 760k
OD presales 7.15M

 

Moana OD 1.06M

[Olive]

Your Name presales are very strong, about same level or better than FB.

[eXtacy]

5 hours ago, Olive said:

Your Name presales are very strong, about same level or better than FB.

 

That's awesome news. Be great for the anime medium to start breaking out in other places in the world.

[Olive]

[8 days +17 hours]

Your Name OD presales - 870k

[fmpro]

7 hours ago, Olive said:

[8 days +17 hours]

Your Name OD presales - 870k

 

That is pretty good

[fmpro]

17 hours ago, Olive said:

[2 days + 4.5 hours]

Doctor Strange
Midnight presales 1.02m
OD presales 5.9M
 
[2days + 5.5 hours]
Fantastic Beasts
Midnight presales 760k
OD presales 7.15M

 

Moana OD 1.06M

 

Good for FB. Shows signs of not being so frontloaded as DS. Lets see if WOM is good also.. Then 100 mill could be possible

[Olive]

[1 day + 5.5 hours]
Doctor Strange
Midnight presales 1.27m
OD presales 9.13M
 
[1day + 5.5 hours]
Fantastic Beasts
Midnight presales 940k
OD presales 10.65M
 
Moana OD 1.54M

 

[8 days +5.5 hours]
Your Name OD presales - 1.34m

[eXtacy]

54 minutes ago, Olive said:

[1 day + 5.5 hours]
Doctor Strange
Midnight presales 1.27m
OD presales 9.13M
 
[1day + 5.5 hours]
Fantastic Beasts
Midnight presales 940k
OD presales 10.65M
 
Moana OD 1.54M

 

[8 days +5.5 hours]
Your Name OD presales - 1.34m

 

If this continues Your Name will have a decent amount more pre-sales than both FB and DS. Also Fantastic Beasts could challenge 100m.

 

Nice to see China up and about again after a glum few months.

 

 

Edited November 23, 2016 by eXtacy

[Noctis]

So, on presales alone, Fantastic Beasts is guaranteed $11.6m for its OD. 

[POTUS 2020]

On Wednesday, November 23, 2016 at 1:01 PM, Noctis said:

So, on presales alone, Fantastic Beasts is guaranteed $11.6m for its OD. 

That's 11.6m yuan for midnight and OD combined that Olive was referring to.

 

OD PS at 12.5m now, that will increase by 75 -100% by Friday morning. Then do 2.5 -3x PS, more if it has great WoM.

60-80m/$9-12m OD  is the expected range. 100m/$15m possible if it catches on.

               CA3.                    XMA                   FB                  

1am  MN      OD               OD                MN     OD         

Th      0.8     2.4                2.3             

Fr      1.2     3.6 +50%      3.2 +39%     0.2     1.1

SA     1.8     6.2 +72%      4.2 +31%     0.4     1.9 +73%

Su     2.1     8.1 +31%      4.9 +16%     0.5     2.8 +47%

Mo    2.8.   11.9 +47%      6.2 +27%    0.6     3.9 +39%

Tu     3.5    16.3 +37%      9.0 +45%    0.7     5.4 +38%

We    4.8    25.4 +56%    11.1 +23%    0.9     7.9 +46%

Th     6.4    37.9 +50%    17.8 +60%    1.1   12.5 +52%

OD   18.1   65.8 +75%    31.6 +78%    2.6   21.7 +74%

                                                    

CA3 OD Fri 5/6

OD Total  181m           x PS          2.75x  
OW Total 625m           Total       1245m

OD  Multi 6.88              OW Multi  1.99x

2.75 PS multi is in line with the norm for tentpoles

 

XMA OD Fri 6/3

OD Total   110m           x PS          3.48x
OW Total  384m           Total         803m

OD  Multi   7.3x            OW Multi   2.09x

3.48 PS multi is high due to weak PS, VG WOM and strong walk ups

Edited November 24, 2016 by POTUS

[FantasticBeasts]

32 minutes ago, POTUS said:

That's 11.6m yuan for midnight and OD combined that Olive was referring to.

 

OD PS at 12.5m now, that will increase by 75 -100% by Friday morning. Then do 2.5 -3x PS, more if it has great WoM.

60-80m/$9-12m OD  is the expected range. 100m/$15m possible if it catches on.

               CA3.                    XMA                   FB                  

1am  MN      OD               OD                MN     OD         

Th      0.8     2.4                2.3             

Fr      1.2     3.6 +50%      3.2 +39%     0.2     1.1

SA     1.8     6.2 +72%      4.2 +31%     0.4     1.9 +73%

Su     2.1     8.1 +31%      4.9 +16%     0.5     2.8 +47%

Mo    2.8.   11.9 +47%      6.2 +27%    0.6     3.9 +39%

Tu     3.5    16.3 +37%      9.0 +45%    0.7     5.4 +38%

We    4.8    25.4 +56%    11.1 +23%    0.9     7.9 +46%

Th     6.4    37.9 +50%    17.8 +60%    1.1   12.5 +52%

OD   18.1   65.8 +75%    31.6 +78%   

                                                    

CA3 OD Fri 5/6

OD Total  181m           x PS          2.75x  
OW Total 625m           Total       1245m

OD  Multi 6.88              OW Multi  1.99x

2.75 PS multi is in line with the norm for tentpoles

 

XMA OD Fri 6/3

OD Total   110m           x PS          3.48x
OW Total  384m           Total         803m

OD  Multi   7.3x            OW Multi   2.09x

3.48 PS multi is high due to weak PS, VG WOM and strong walk ups

You confused me...What's the expected OW in dollars? 

[peludo]

17 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

You confused me...What's the expected OW in dollars? 

With @POTUS data (please, correct me if I am wrong) and applying the same multiplier than CW and Apocalypse (about x3.45 OD) the OW could be in the $30-$50m range, depending on the OD (60-100m Yuan).

[FantasticBeasts]

31 minutes ago, peludo said:

With @POTUS data (please, correct me if I am wrong) and applying the same multiplier than CW and Apocalypse (about x3.45 OD) the OW could be in the $30-$50m range, depending on the OD (60-100m Yuan).

Thanks a lot! I hope for the 50....

And let's say it does a 40m OW what will be its estimated final gross there? 

[peludo]

1 hour ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Thanks a lot! I hope for the 50....

And let's say it does a 40m OW what will be its estimated final gross there? 

I do not know if there will be big or low competition in upcoming weeks, but opening to 40 it should make 80-100

[POTUS 2020]

WoM travels fast, it will decide the size of the PS multi for OD and the Friday multi for OW

Maoyan Fan Rating can be decent indicator 

                         OD        OW    Total

         Rating    xPS       xFri     xOW

DS       9.0        4          3.58    2.56

AM      8.9        3          3.55    2.56

XMA   8.9        3.48     3.39    2.13 WC opened.

CA3    8.6        2.75     3 37    2.03 

BvS     8.0        2.40     3.03    1.72 

 

Edit.  The Maoyan rating is a good predictor of legs.

Movies that started small and exploded were rated 9.3-9.6 like Zoo, TMK, GML and OM. 

Movies that opened huge and held well and went on to take the record, FF7, MH and Mermaid, were  9.1-9.6.

Large openers that held decent, 40-50% holds, were 8.8-9.1.  Like DS, AM TJB. 

Mid 8s generally have typical 60% drops and low 8's and 7's have the 70% or weaker WoW holds.

 

Edited November 24, 2016 by POTUS

[Olive]

[11 hours]
Doctor Strange
Midnight presales 1.70M
OD presales 12.5M
 
[11  hours]
Fantastic Beasts
Midnight presales 1.22m
OD presales 14.15M
 
Moana OD 2.11M
 
[7 days +11 hours]
Your Name OD presales - 1.88m

[Olive]

OD presales -final

Dr Strange - 19.8M [OD 81.5M without mids]

Fantastic B - 20.95M

Moana - 3.35M

 

[7 days]

Your Name OD presales - 2.41m

Edited November 24, 2016 by Olive

[Olive]

On 2016/11/19 at 6:45 PM, Olive said:

Doctor Strange[5 days +4 hours]
Midnight presales 588k
OD presales 2.26M

 

[5 days + 4.5 hours]

Fantastic Beasts
Midnight presales 461k
OD presales 2.55M

 

Moana OD 370k

[5 days + 5.5 hours]

Your Name

Midnight presales 305k
OD presales 4.41M

[fmpro]

10 minutes ago, Olive said:

[5 days + 5.5 hours]

Your Name

Midnight presales 305k
OD presales 4.41M

 

That OD number 

[Olive]

1 minute ago, fmpro said:

 

That OD number 

This movie will be way more presale -skewed than DS and FB.