Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

[POTUS 2020]

Aq PS is going up at least 50% today to 19.5m.  Should be 80% tomorrow, possibly 100%.   35-39m

Like Vm, its not a sequel and has good buzz and could very well match the PS to OW multi. 

using 37m and Vm's PS/OW multi(12.76x) we get 472m/$68m OW. 

Edited December 5, 2018 by POTUS

[Michael Seng Wah]

35 minutes ago, POTUS said:

Aq PS is going up at least 50% today to 19.5m.  Should be 80% tomorrow, possibly 100%.   35-39m

Like Vm, its not a sequel and has good buzz and could very well match the PS to OW multi. 

using 37m and Vm's PS/OW multi(12.76x) we get 472m/$68m OW. 

Possible to hit 20m? Since it’s almost 18m now.

[Ash Skywalker]

26 minutes ago, Michael Seng Wah said:

Possible to hit 20m? Since it’s almost 18m now.

Zeesoh told me that Pre-sales doesn't increase much at night. And as POTUS also indicating it would be at 19.5, anything b/w 19-19.5 is plausible!

Edited December 5, 2018 by Ash Skywalker

[MrGlass2]

Ant-Man 2 seems like a good target, it had better presales than Aquaman 1 day out (23.7M) but fewer screens.

AM2: $67M OW, $121M total; Aquaman can do similar numbers (if people actually like it).

[Ash Skywalker]

9 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Ant-Man 2 seems like a good target, it had better presales than Aquaman 1 day out (23.7M) but fewer screens.

AM2: $67M OW, $121M total; Aquaman can do similar numbers (if people actually like it).

Olive mentioned that 2.5 multi is possible. So on the low end,
50M OW x 2.5 Multi = 125M
65M OW x 2.5 Multi = 167M (This seems to be the case if WOM is good)
A lot depends on the WOM I guess. 
 

[terrestrial]

7 minutes ago, Ash Skywalker said:

65M OW x 2.5 Multi = 167M (This seems to be the case if WOM is good)

if WOM is exceptional to very good ... I think

[Ash Skywalker]

12 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

if WOM is exceptional to very good ... I think

Ah, Yes. 106M(Highest DC Film) to 167M is no less feat. I sincerely hope that it would do these figures.

[POTUS 2020]

1 hour ago, Ash Skywalker said:

Zeesoh told me that Pre-sales doesn't increase much at night. And as POTUS also indicating it would be at 19.5, anything b/w 19-19.5 is plausible!

 

 

1 hour ago, Michael Seng Wah said:

Possible to hit 20m? Since it’s almost 18m now.

they dont increase much in the middle of the night, after 1am.  The hourly rate runs steady and sometimes slightly increases from 8pm to midnight. at about 50m p/h.  It should reach 20m at 1am.  40m is possible tomorrow.  btw,  The PSm could be higher than Vm since it has smaller PS, PS started later and the buzz started much later than Vm with it opening earlier in other markets

 

$65-70m OW is looking good unless the block of tickets bought screws up the PSm $60m could happen

 

Top end could be 40mPS x 4 for 160m OD.  A 50% bump is possible with great WoM on sat and a 25% drop sunday

590m/$85m OW.  9.2 rating needed for this

Edited December 5, 2018 by POTUS

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

Whats the maximum number for screens AQM can get?

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

Whats the maximum number for screens AQM can get?

[terrestrial]

1 hour ago, Ash Skywalker said:

Ah, Yes. 106M(Highest DC Film) to 167M is no less feat. I sincerely hope that it would do these figures.

I meant that 'good' WOM might not be enough for a 2.5 mp.

I understand the posts here over the years as in it has to be very good (see holiday's help,.... might be enough) to exceptional (without a holiday help, or barren from other releases, or other supporting circumstances) for a 2.5 mp

[Olive]

15 minutes ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

Whats the maximum number for screens AQM can get?

showtimes will be on par with Venom's OD. 165k showtimes, about 33000 screens fully occupied

[Krissykins]

So a $60m opening weekend is looking like a solid bet for Aquaman? 

 

That seems good! 

[Ash Skywalker]

3 hours ago, terrestrial said:

I meant that 'good' WOM might not be enough for a 2.5 mp.

I understand the posts here over the years as in it has to be very good (see holiday's help,.... might be enough) to exceptional (without a holiday help, or barren from other releases, or other supporting circumstances) for a 2.5 mp

I understood that mate

[ZeeSoh]

On 12/4/2018 at 10:00 PM, ZeeSoh said:

Aquaman (2 days out)

Midnight - 1.93m

OD - 13.08m (+30.8%) (86403 shows)

Sat - 7.95m

Sun - 4.58m

 

Aquaman (1 day out)

Midnight - 2.90m

OD - 19.60 (+49.85%) (118,514 shows)

Sat - 11.84m

Sun - 6.13m

 

Decent jump today. The jump in show counts was even better. Closed the gap with Venom in terms of show counts a lot today. It will end up with probably the 3rd highest show counts for a SH movie (after IW and Venom (I dont have date for AoU/CA3 so dont know what their count was like but I doubt it was this high due to market growth))

 

I think tomorrow it may jump around 80-90% for a final PS of 35-38m. It's following SMH presales closely and that jumped 80% on its final day for a final PS of 36m. Still thinking around 62-67m OW. A relatively empty few weeks and holidays could then take the multiplies above 2 for a final total above 120-130m which would be the highest for a DC movie. Of course that depends on the ratings. It could crash and burn like FB2 did recently if it has bad ratings.

Edited December 5, 2018 by ZeeSoh

[Stewart]

1 hour ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

Aquaman (1 day out)

Midnight - 2.90m

OD - 13.08m (+49.85%) (118,514 shows)

Sat - 11.84m

Sun - 6.13m

 

Decent jump today. The jump in show counts was even better. Closed the gap with Venom in terms of show counts a lot today. It will end up with probably the 3rd highest show counts for a SH movie (after IW and Venom (I dont have date for AoU/CA3 so dont know what their count was like but I doubt it was this high due to market growth))

 

I think tomorrow it may jump around 80-90% for a final PS of 35-38m. It's following SMH presales closely and that jumped 80% on its final day for a final PS of 36m. Still thinking around 62-67m OW. A relatively empty few weeks and holidays could then take the multiplies above 2 for a final total above 120-130m which would be the highest for a DC movie. Of course that depends on the ratings. It could crash and burn like FB2 did recently if it has bad ratings.

need to fix OD number

 

CA3:

OD - 93815

SAT - 100805

SUN - 99811

 

AoU:

opening Tues to Thurs ~81k, peaked on Saturday with 83.7k

 

FF8:

OD - 163564

SAT - 179150

SUN - 177382

 

Also for the record, Warcraft peaked at 127k

 

EDIT: Just realised you said 3rd best SH show count, so yes I believe you are correct.

Edited December 5, 2018 by feasby007

[Michael Seng Wah]

PS OD (11am) ~21m

[ZeeSoh]

Up 32% around 5:45pm. Dont think its gonna do 90% jump today. Even 80% seems difficult unless it picks up pace in the evening

[Michael Seng Wah]

8 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Up 32% around 5:45pm. Dont think its gonna do 90% jump today. Even 80% seems difficult unless it picks up pace in the evening

Currently at 26m

Midnight preview drop to #3, Venom surpasses it 😳

[Manny G]

7 minutes ago, Michael Seng Wah said:

Currently at 26m

Midnight preview drop to #3, Venom surpasses it 😳

What’s the weekend looking like? $55M?