BATMAN V SUPERMAN WEEKEND THREAD | 166.01M OW, New March OW Record. 420.4M WW OW.

[narniadis]

finally went with 176m for the Derby - been a while (since star wars at least) since I have a film that I have no confidence in my number because I feel it could go way up or way down over all....

[#ED]

5 minutes ago, CaptainJackSparrow said:

What numbers should we expect when this opens in China?

 

China Forum is predicting a 60M+ weekend. The best DC opening there by far, but smaller than recent big Hollywood movies.

[filmlover]

A friend of mine texted me just now that he is waiting in the theater for the 9:30 show and he said he heard the people behind him talking about how they heard it has got such bad reviews, and that the atmosphere is the exact opposite of The Force Awakens. lol ouch.

[CJohn]

2 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

In LA, it looks like BVS will probably surge way past ULTRON in terms of sellouts -- it'll still be well short in overall showtimes though.

Showtimes is more important, IMO. I still don't see this beating Ultron. And if Friday isn't big enough, dark days are coming. 

[CJohn]

3 minutes ago, #ED said:

 

China Forum is predicting a 60M+ weekend. The best DC opening there by far, but smaller than recent big Hollywood movies.

That seems like a shit opening to me.

[ZattMurdock]

5 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Dude, Pirates 4 and TF4 did 1B WW  

 

There is also 0 competition.

 

Buzz and WOM can still kill it, tho, I won't deny that.

It's not just that, the times are different, Pirates is a different beast than a superhero movie, it works pretty much like Transformers movies because they are designed to entertain and be fun adventure films. They are mindless fun, and the times that stuff like Alice gets to $1b because 3D are over. Competition is coming, and I don't even mean just Civil War. 

 

I just can't see this clicking enough with audiences to justify a $1b run anymore, and when you add to the fact that Civil War is coming, it just adds to the injure. My opinion is that this will behave like the anti-Deadpool, and while buzz and wom do play a huge part, it's not the single factor. It wouldn't be easy with good buzz, and it just became an uphill battle imho. It's my theory, but let's see how it plays out.

[GiantCALBears]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

A friend of mine texted me just now that he is waiting in the theater for the 9:30 show and he said he heard the people behind him talking about how they heard it has got such bad reviews, and that the atmosphere is the exact opposite of The Force Awakens. lol ouch.

TFA reviews were good but Batman is no Star Wars. I think you'd agree people would show up like crazy for midnights even if it was 5% on RT.

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, iJackSparrow said:

It's not just that, the times are different, Pirates is a different beast than a superhero movie, it works pretty much like Transformers movies because they are designed to entertain and be fun adventure films. They are mindless fun, and the times that stuff like Alice gets to $1b because 3D are over. Competition is coming, and I don't even mean just Civil War. 

 

I just can't see this clicking enough with audiences to justify a $1b run anymore, and when you add to the fact that Civil War is coming, it just adds to the injure. My opinion is that this will behave like the anti-Deadpool, and while buzz and wom do play a huge part, it's not the single factor. It wouldn't be easy with good buzz, and it just became an uphill battle imho. It's my theory, but let's see how it plays out.

Dude, Civil War only opens in 5 weeks OS and 6 weeks DOM!!!! It will have no effect in this movie.

 

The next competition in Jungle Book in 3 weeks.

 

The rest is your opinion and it might just happen. I am thinking on dropping my prediction again. Things are not looking good. 

[IronJimbo]

Average Rating: 5.1/10

Reviews Counted: 188

Fresh: 59

Rotten: 129

 

Holy crap.

 

Still going to go see it.

[Dementeleus]

6 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Showtimes is more important, IMO. I still don't see this beating Ultron. And if Friday isn't big enough, dark days are coming. 

 

Showtimes, yes, but only if they actually sell a decent number of seats. ULTRON had a ton of really empty shows. Like, "click on the theater a half-hour before showtime and see 11 tickets sold" empty. It's only a guess, but my sense is that BVS is a lot stronger with its shows.

[filmlover]

Just now, GiantCALBears said:

TFA reviews were good but Batman is no Star Wars. I think you'd agree people would show up like crazy for midnights even if it was 5% on RT.

Sure but I think overall perception that they didn't learn from any of the criticisms an overwhelming number of people had with Man of Steel, and in more likelihood magnified them, it definitely feels like there's something smelly in the air.

 

I'm still seeing the movie tomorrow night with as open of a mind as possible, but I'd be lying if I said my expectations weren't rock bottom at this point.

[ZattMurdock]

12 minutes ago, Daniel Dylan Davis said:

 

Maybe, but I still say 360m / 1.05b is the worse case scenario. Either way, I'm sure the executives at WB are a bit "shaky" about the potential number this weekend.

It's funny how these numbers are pretty much my original prediction numbers before the reviews got here. In my opinion these numbers were a conservative to positive scenario, decent reception and a film less divisive than MoS. Things have changed and I feel the box office will be a reflection of that.

 

I think we'll have a good grasp where this is going by Saturday or Sunday. It won't take long. 

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, iJackSparrow said:

It's funny how these numbers are pretty much my original prediction numbers before the reviews got here. In my opinion these numbers were a conservative to positive scenario, decent reception and a film less divisive than MoS. Things have changed and I feel the box office will be a reflection of that.

 

I think we'll have a good grasp where this is going by Saturday or Sunday. It won't take long. 

Not really because it is Easter around the world and drops on Sunday should be big. 

 

Next weekend will give us a better sign, I think.

 

Unless this thing has a big drop on Saturday. If that happens, RIP.

 

 

[Dementeleus]

8 minutes ago, iJackSparrow said:

It's not just that, the times are different, Pirates is a different beast than a superhero movie, it works pretty much like Transformers movies because they are designed to entertain and be fun adventure films. They are mindless fun, ...

 

Are you suggesting that CBMs aren't mindless fun? Because I assure you, for anyone who's not seriously invested in whatever franchise we're talking about, that's exactly what they are.

[Lordmandeep]

Has any movie gotten 200 negative reviews before? 

[boomboom234]

Just now, CJohn said:

Not really because it is Easter around the world and drops on Sunday should be big. 

 

Next weekend will give us a better sign, I think.

 

Unless this thing has a big drop on Saturday. If that happens, RIP.

 

 

MAn its suobling MOS everywhere with that 1 billion is assured, in china its passing MOS total on OW take it down a notch

[Fancyarcher]

8 minutes ago, iJackSparrow said:

It's funny how these numbers are pretty much my original prediction numbers before the reviews got here. In my opinion these numbers were a conservative to positive scenario, decent reception and a film less divisive than MoS. Things have changed and I feel the box office will be a reflection of that.

 

I think we'll have a good grasp where this is going by Saturday or Sunday. It won't take long. 

 

Will see. I think the second weekend drop's should be more telling about where the film is headed box office wise though.

Edited March 25, 2016 by Daniel Dylan Davis

[RichWS]

2 minutes ago, narniadis said:

finally went with 176m for the Derby - been a while (since star wars at least) since I have a film that I have no confidence in my number because I feel it could go way up or way down over all....

 

I went 157.5. I know it's pretty low, but I feel fairly (stupidly?) confident. 

[filmlover]

If this thing plummets in the weeks ahead it won't be due to competition. The only movie in April guaranteed to be a big hit is The Jungle Book (but that appears to be mostly targeting families since the crossover appeal shouldn't be that significant), while The Boss, Barbershop 3, and The Huntsman are the only other titles with significant box office potential of any kind.

[Lordmandeep]

 I would say 50% is SW7 is a good guesstimate?