Weekend Thread | RTH pg 197...Mother's Day not kind to CW but very kind to JB and MD CW 42, JB 9,7, MDD 6.1,Hunts 1.48...puts CW at about 178M

[The Futurist]

Avengers Age Of Ultron & Captain America : Civil War are box office phenomenons.

 

Make your peace with that fact.

 

 

Edited May 8, 2016 by The Futurist

[John Marston]

11 hours ago, filmnerdjamie said:

 

While I find Holland to be stupidly overpraised as Spidey (Yes, he's good especially bouncing off Downey but to say he's already better than Maguire and Garfield based on 10 minutes is fanboy bullshit), the goodwill from this will help. Plus the presence of Stark will be played hard in the marketing, regardless of if its a legit role or just a glorified cameo. So I'm with you on that figure.

 

 

haven't seen the movie yet but it seems all Spidey does is quip in this movie. Can he do the more dramatic stuff? 

[somebody85]

9 minutes ago, John Marston said:

one movie I think will be very overpredicted domestically is Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

And Suicide Squad. But we'll see.

[moviesRus]

Just now, somebody85 said:

And Suicide Squad. But we'll see.

 

I don't think people are predicting that high for SS.. not after BvS anyways. 

[John Marston]

3 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

A Phantom Menace dynamic is at play with Force Awakens, for entirely different reasons of course, not as strong and harsh , But I can definitely feel it.

 

 

if it drops like Phantom Menace it should still make in the 800m range I believe

 

 

also, Episode 8 still has a good hook. Luke Skywalker since he was only in the last shot of Episode 7

[EmpireCity]

5 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

A Phantom Menace dynamic is at play with Force Awakens, for entirely different reasons of course, not as strong and harsh , But I can definitely feel it.

 

You keep trying to push this and it isn't true.  

[Frozen]

Should have made rated R and shown some bare ass. 

[filmnerdjamie]

2 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

A Phantom Menace dynamic is at play with Force Awakens, for entirely different reasons of course, not as strong and harsh , But I can definitely feel it.

 

Exactly.

 

They can't replicate "THE STAR WARS OF YOUR CHILDHOOD IS BACK!" feeling. Not a strike against them, just simple facts. Doesn't matter how popular the new leads are, a significant drop is coming because the numbers were so Goddamn high. Natural for the drop to be equally harsh but that doesn't reflect that audiences waned on Force Awakens or don't want to see Episode 8. Just reality settling back in. 

[moviesRus]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

 

 

if it drops like Phantom Menace it should still make in the 800m range I believe

 

 

also, Episode 8 still has a good hook. Luke Skywalker since he was only in the last shot of Episode 7

 

Depends on how much he shows up in advertising, like are they going to let him talk in the trailers?

[somebody85]

2 minutes ago, moviesRus said:

 

I don't think people are predicting that high for SS.. not after BvS anyways. 

 

lol head over to the box office clubs and wait until it gets closer to release. I can almost guarantee that if it gets good reviews, big numbers will be thrown around and it will be over predicted. Batman being in it will be used like Spider-Man in this.
 

5 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

haven't seen the movie yet but it seems all Spidey does is quip in this movie. Can he do the more dramatic stuff? 

He does have a few dramatic moments as Peter Parker with Tony before suiting up.
 

[The Futurist]

1 minute ago, nilephelan said:

 

You keep trying to push this and it isn't true.  

 

From a certain point of view, it is.

 

 

[Frozen]

11 minutes ago, somebody85 said:

No I'm not saying it opens higher then TFA. I'm saying over 200m which seems reasonable.

 

 I think there is already a lot buzz for this film. I can't see it opening under 200. 

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, somebody85 said:

No I'm not saying it opens higher then TFA. I'm saying over 200m which seems reasonable.

 

I think frontloading alone makes it pretty probable, yes.  But, I dunno.  It wouldn't shock me to see it "only" hit 190 or 195.  While the diehards and spoilerphobes will rush out to see it (hence the frontloading comment), others might think "I have two plus weeks to see it duiring the hollidays" and wait a bit.

 

If I were a predictor, and I'm not, I'd probably completely ignore the TFA opening weekend, except to acknowledge that lots and lots of people still like SW.  But I certainly wouldn't try to do much of a percentage guessing game based on the TFA OW.  There were just so many things that were unique there that I think using the actual numbers of TFA for any prediction is... asking for trouble.

 

Still, I'd say odds are good.  But plenty of time for things to go 'wrong' between now and Dec '17.

 

====

 

One thing that might be interesting is to go back and look at the Top 10 predicitons for 2015 BEFORE the Disney Hype Machine took off to get a guage on what peeps thought TFA would do. I was looking at it earlier today and I was stuck by how many mid 400 predictions there were at the time.  Using those predicitons for TFA as a floor of sorts might not be the worst thing in the world.  If only to keep expectations in check.

[filmnerdjamie]

3 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

haven't seen the movie yet but it seems all Spidey does is quip in this movie. Can he do the more dramatic stuff? 

 

There is a nice scene in his room with Tony. I mean... Civil War was too long and honestly he served no function to the narrative. Losing him would have helped, especially since Downey is going to be in the new Spidey solo film any way. But the hyperbole, man... Someone who claims they saw it was challenging me when I said there was no Spider-Sense in this saying I was wrong. I wasn't. People seriously can't fucking think straight when they fangasm.

[johnboy3434]

1 minute ago, The Futurist said:

 

From a certain point of view, it is.

 

 

 

You realize the person who said that was (unsuccessfully) sidestepping the fact that he straight-up lied, right?

[somebody85]

4 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

 

Exactly.

 

They can't replicate "THE STAR WARS OF YOUR CHILDHOOD IS BACK!" feeling. Not a strike against them, just simple facts. Doesn't matter how popular the new leads are, a significant drop is coming because the numbers were so Goddamn high. Natural for the drop to be equally harsh but that doesn't reflect that audiences waned on Force Awakens or don't want to see Episode 8. Just reality settling back in. 

It's true. It's going to drop. You can't recapture that magic again of the fucking sequel to ROTJ.

But saying over 200m isn't that much of risky play. That gives it a lot of room. But even to get that a lot has to go right again.

[EmpireCity]

2 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

 

From a certain point of view, it is.

 

 

 

Not really.  I get why you want it to be, but it isn't.  

[Wonder Midget]

It's both an Avengers film and a Captain America film.

 

[John Marston]

18 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

People should be prepared when Episode 8 "only" does $450M-$500M.

 

And no, this Civil War opening is not going to start tempering future judgement for, say, Infinity War. That too will get overhyped to fuck by online pundits who get to see it a month early and toot Disney's horn at a given notice. We were literally here a year ago saying the same thing about Age of Ultron. People just don't fucking learn...

 

 

 

I remember when GOTG came out there were many early tweets going "JJ Abrams has his work cut out for him on how he is going to top this movie with Star Wars next year!!: 

[somebody85]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I think frontloading alone makes it pretty probable, yes.  But, I dunno.  It wouldn't shock me to see it "only" hit 190 or 195.  While the diehards and spoilerphobes will rush out to see it (hence the frontloading comment), others might think "I have two plus weeks to see it duiring the hollidays" and wait a bit.

 

If I were a predictor, and I'm not, I'd probably completely ignore the TFA opening weekend, except to acknowledge that lots and lots of people still like SW.  But I certainly wouldn't try to do much of a percentage guessing game based on the TFA OW.  There were just so many things that were unique there that I think using the actual numbers of TFA for any prediction is... asking for trouble.

 

Still, I'd say odds are good.  But plenty of time for things to go 'wrong' between now and Dec '17.

 

====

 

One thing that might be interesting is to go back and look at the Top 10 predicitons for 2015 BEFORE the Disney Hype Machine took off to get a guage on what peeps thought TFA would do. I was looking at it earlier today and I was stuck by how many mid 400 predictions there were at the time.  Using those predicitons for TFA as a floor of sorts might not be the worst thing in the world.  If only to keep expectations in check.

Very true. The marketing from all of those huge companies for TFA and the return of Star Wars was insane. That will probably not happen again but they could be on board with a different idea much how Windows still promotes every Season Premiere, Mid Season Finale, Mid Season Premiere and Mid Season Finale of The Walking Dead.

But yes a lot has to go right again. A LOT.