Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates - FD: $136.2M, CI: $34.5M, TC2: $15.56M, NYSM2: $9.65M, Flopcraft: $6.52M

[Captain H]

I think Dory is going to barely squeak past Shrek 2's unadjusted DOM total for the animated crown.

[Ethan Hunt]

1 minute ago, Captain H said:

I think Dory is going to barely squeak past Shrek 2's unadjusted DOM total for the animated crown.

I think it should get past it comfortably. Thinking about 460MOh

[WrathOfHan]

Shrek the Third still has the adjusted animated OW record, will any movie beat that soon?

[Star Lord]

2 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Yeah, my top 4 was Civil War, Suicide Squad, Dory, and Pets. Initially though I had it Dory, SS, CW, and Pets. Should have stuck with that, but I knew CW was opening 175+ as we got close and I would have never predicted its legs to be so terrible with the reviews it had. Still thinking SS can beat CW though. It's literally the only choice left this summer for another big live action blockbuster, I think audiences will be ready to swarm to something not animated by early August. 

 

SS won't beat CW. No way. 

[cookie]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Shrek the Third still has the adjusted animated OW record, will any movie beat that soon?

 

Toy Story 4 or Frozen 2 depending on when it releases.

[Johnny Tran]

1 hour ago, James said:

That's almost Cap America First Avenger level C'mon...

I mean, just for a quick comparison, the first teaser for Rogue One has about 45m views on YT from it's 4 main channels. + 15m Facebook views

SS's comicon-footage has over 108m views from it's main channels. + 24m Facebook views

SS trailer 1 has over 70m from it's main channels. + 18m Facebook views

SS trailer 2 has about 45m from it's main channels. + 12m facebook views. That is almost the same as the first trailer for Rogue One. Just think about how crazy that is. I'm not saying it will outgross Rogue One. And of course trailer views are not a direct indicator for BO success. But there seems to be way to much hype for 75-85m OW. 

 

Bruh, I'm rooting for it.  I hope you're right. Well, first I'm rooting for it to be GOOD. Then I hope it cleans up at the BO.  But I don't see the YT views translating to big box office success. Not on that level.  I think there's hype but it's not coming directly from the GA. The huge hype is still coming from the comic book fan section of the universe who are very vocal and do make an impact but not on the level of Jurassic World and these types of things.

 

I do think some families will stay away. Now, some guy is going to say "Well, what about Deadpool?".  I don't think this has had as great of a marketing campaign as Deadpool had and I don't think the same audience is losing their minds over SS. I think they are waiting for reviews and WOM. 

[wildphantom]

You'd think Dory's swim to $400 million should be a done deal. 

Yet it has BFG, Secret Life of Pets and Ice Age, all flying out in a few weeks. Pets is going to be a huge hit. 

 

So it needs big bank through this week and a good hold next weekend to assure it. 

 

Shrek 2 basically had zero competition for its audience all summer in 2004. 

[fabiopazzo2]

45 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Besides January, we had a 300M movie in every month. That is the only reason I can see to believe SS will reach a similar number, and this is assuming Pets gets there as well in July. 

 

My official prediction for SS right now is, as I said in this thread before, 75/205, tho. 

Sure  

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, cookie said:

 

Toy Story 4 or Frozen 2 depending on when it releases.

TS4 won't hit that mark

Frozen 2 could but I think if it releases on Wednesday like the first that could take away upfront demand.

[Ethan Hunt]

Anyone who thinks Toy Story 4 will increase has lost their mind

[fabiopazzo2]

2 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

Anyone who thinks Toy Story 4 will increase has lost their mind

Possible!

[fabiopazzo2]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

TS4 won't hit that mark

Frozen 2 could but I think if it releases on Wednesday like the first that could take away upfront demand.

Wednesday? Why? 

[baumer]

I'm giving Dory a 3.2x max

[fabiopazzo2]

2 minutes ago, Baumer said:

I'm giving Dory a 3.2x max

$435 mil? Very very good

[Johnny Tran]

1 hour ago, Baumer said:

 

You're speculating. There's no fact here. And won't people be put off a bit because of BvS?

 

On this point, I don't  believe so. I don't have factual evidence this is only anecdotal but in my experience most people don't really understand that DC is doing an extended universe. They couldn't comprehend why Batman and Superman were in the same movie.  Hell, they didn't understand why "Iron Man is mad at Captain America".  And that's with these people seeing many of the Marvel movies. They still couldn't really follow along. I've had many people already ask me if the Batman in the SS movie is the same Batman at BvS.

Edited June 19, 2016 by Johnny Tran

[Ethan Hunt]

2 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

 

On this point, I don't  believe so. I don't have factual evidence this is only anecdotal but in my experience most people don't really understand that DC is doing an extended universe. They couldn't comprehend why Batman and Superman were in the same movie.  Hell, they didn't understand why "Iron Man is mad at Captain America".  And that's with these people seeing many of the Marvel movies. They still couldn't really follow along. I've had many people already ask me if the Batman in the SS movie is the same Batman at BvS.

So basically you're saying that people are stupid

[Dementeleus]

I think there's a small chance DORY finishes under IM3. 

 

Edit: or, I guess, to make a more obvious comp, under TS3. 

[CJohn]

Just now, Telemachos said:

I think there's a small chance DORY finishes under IM3. 

 

[Ethan Hunt]

Just now, Telemachos said:

I think there's a small chance DORY finishes under IM3. 

Just keep hating, just keep hating

 

[Blankments]

2 hours ago, James said:

Of course it will. It has SW type hype and it's marketing has been spot on. It will be the highest CBM this year DOM.

Nothing has SW type hype