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Ezen Baklattan

July 1-4 Weekend Estimates | Dory 50.2m, Tarzan 45.6m, Purge 34.8m, BFG 22.2m, IDR 20.2m

By Ezen Baklattan, in Numbers and Data

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

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The strong legs of CI are why I believe Ghostbusters will do 50M+ in two weeks. Audiences want a comedy and Ghostbusters has a lot off buzz (good and bad). It's the kind of movie that can appeal to both sexes as well.

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Nova Global Phenomenon

Nova

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2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

The strong legs of CI are why I believe Ghostbusters will do 50M+ in two weeks. Audiences want a comedy and Ghostbusters has a lot off buzz (good and bad). It's the kind of movie that can appeal to both sexes as well.

Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates is going to steal Ghostbusters thunder :popcorn:

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Cmasterclay Global Phenomenon

Cmasterclay

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1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

The strong legs of CI are why I believe Ghostbusters will do 50M+ in two weeks. Audiences want a comedy and Ghostbusters has a lot off buzz (good and bad). It's the kind of movie that can appeal to both sexes as well.

Oh for sure. I was saying this in the Ghostbusters topic (aka hell), but just in terms of buzz this movie has the most of any left this summer IMO. Everyone I know is talking about it, good or bad, and it has a huge marketing/promotion/social media presence. It's everywhere. With the expectation of only decent reviews, I'm predicting Ant-Man OW (57m), but it reviews come through as strong I might bump that to 65m+. People are underestimating this one. It's a McCarthy Feig comedy AND a blockbuster action movie that is part of a beloved brand. It'll be big. 

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Nova Global Phenomenon

Nova

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Just now, Cmasterclay said:

Oh for sure. I was saying this in the Ghostbusters topic (aka hell), but just in terms of buzz this movie has the most of any left this summer IMO. Everyone I know is talking about it, good or bad, and it has a huge marketing/promotion/social media presence. It's everywhere. With the expectation of only decent reviews, I'm predicting Ant-Man OW (57m), but it reviews come through as strong I might bump that to 65m+. People are underestimating this one. It's a McCarthy Feig comedy AND a blockbuster action movie that is part of a beloved brand. It'll be big. 

I agree with everything you're saying however I think Suicide Squad takes the cake with the most buzz for a movie left this summer. And I don't think its even comparable to any other films. The buzz for that film is out of this world crazy. 

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

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Just now, Cmasterclay said:

Oh for sure. I was saying this in the Ghostbusters topic (aka hell), but just in terms of buzz this movie has the most of any left this summer IMO. Everyone I know is talking about it, good or bad, and it has a huge marketing/promotion/social media presence. It's everywhere. With the expectation of only decent reviews, I'm predicting Ant-Man OW (57m), but it reviews come through as strong I might bump that to 65m+. People are underestimating this one. It's a McCarthy Feig comedy AND a blockbuster action movie that is part of a beloved brand. It'll be big. 

I'm at 50M right now but I'm close to increasing it to Ant-Man levels. Similarly I have Star Trek doing 57M and I'm tempted to raise it to 60M, buzz has been increasing a lot the past couple weeks and it's ahead of Ghostbusters on Twitter now. Universal needs to get their shit together on Bourne though; last year MI5 didn't have much buzz at this point but it was more than what Bourne has now.

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Cmasterclay Global Phenomenon

Cmasterclay

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Just now, WrathOfHan said:

I'm at 50M right now but I'm close to increasing it to Ant-Man levels. Similarly I have Star Trek doing 57M and I'm tempted to raise it to 60M, buzz has been increasing a lot the past couple weeks and it's ahead of Ghostbusters on Twitter now. Universal needs to get their shit together on Bourne though; last year MI5 didn't have much buzz at this point but it was more than what Bourne has now.

Me and you are seeing eye to eye this summer. I had Star Trek doing only 50 mill OW but it has done well for itself lately and I've come around on it actually being good. I haven't heard one single person talk about Bourne. Seen the first trailer alot, but that's it. No TV marketing, no second trailer, no nothing. I know it skews older, but yeesh. I'm at 45 mill for that right now, but like MI5 that might increase as we get closer to release. 

 

As for Suicide Squad, that did have massive buzz after the first couple trailers last year, and a ton of people were sharing/talking about it. I was at 95 OW for a point. But after BvS and all the news of SS being cut to shit, I'm completely out on that movie. The buzz has absolutely died due to BvS, too, given it's the movie equivalent of a wet fart in church. I'm also expecting a really bad movie. If marketing picks up again and reviews are surprisingly decent I could see that being very big still, yes. 

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

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6 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Me and you are seeing eye to eye this summer. I had Star Trek doing only 50 mill OW but it has done well for itself lately and I've come around on it actually being good. I haven't heard one single person talk about Bourne. Seen the first trailer alot, but that's it. No TV marketing, no second trailer, no nothing. I know it skews older, but yeesh. I'm at 45 mill for that right now, but like MI5 that might increase as we get closer to release. 

 

As for Suicide Squad, that did have massive buzz after the first couple trailers last year, and a ton of people were sharing/talking about it. I was at 95 OW for a point. But after BvS and all the news of SS being cut to shit, I'm completely out on that movie. The buzz has absolutely died due to BvS, too, given it's the movie equivalent of a wet fart in church. I'm also expecting a really bad movie. If marketing picks up again and reviews are surprisingly decent I could see that being very big still, yes. 

What concerns me the most about Bourne is we still don't have another trailer. The SuperBowl ad was huge and the trailer had good reactions, why aren't they spending at least a little on it while still pushing SLOP? SS should still be good for 90M+ on OW, anything higher and legs depend on reviews (I have it at 110/280 right now)

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Nova Global Phenomenon

Nova

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2 minutes ago, mrqe93 said:

Is it safe to think Purge 3 is heavily frontloaded? 

More than likely. I'm shocked at its 4 day total given its Friday but regardless it made a killing this weekend. 

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