July 1-4 Weekend Estimates | Dory 50.2m, Tarzan 45.6m, Purge 34.8m, BFG 22.2m, IDR 20.2m

[James]

I can't wait to see some Tuesday numbers for Tarzan.  TF3 fell 25% from it's 4th of July Monday. That would put Tarzan at round 6m for the day. But then, Tarzan had better holds than TF3 over the weekend. A 20% drop would put it at around 6.4m. That is what I'm hoping for.

[stripe]

28 minutes ago, James said:

I can't wait to see some Tuesday numbers for Tarzan.  TF3 fell 25% from it's 4th of July Monday. That would put Tarzan at round 6m for the day. But then, Tarzan had better holds than TF3 over the weekend. A 20% drop would put it at around 6.4m. That is what I'm hoping for.

 

TF3 didn't benefit from cheap Tuesday the way Tarzan is going to benefit. I would say 10-15% drop is possible. Around 7M.

[James]

11 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

TF3 didn't benefit from cheap Tuesday the way Tarzan is going to benefit. I would say 10-15% drop is possible. Around 7M.

That would be amazing for it! So it will reach maybe 63-64m going into the weekend. A decent hold (TF3 type) would lead to a 19m second WE and 82-83m. A great one (-40%) would put it at around 23m and 86-87m. I think it will settle somewhere in the middle for around 85m.   

[stripe]

This weekend has been great. I'm feeling we are in a fight for the biggest July ever, beating 2011.

 

We already had a better first long weekend (+40M). And looking at new entries:

 

Zoookeeper + Horrible Bosses (48M) < Pets + Mike (at least 75M)

Obviously, DH2 + Winnie weekend (176M) > Ghostbusters + Infiltrator (at least 60M)

Captain America + Friends (83M) < Ice Age + Star Trek + Lights out (at least 100M)

Cowboys + Smurfs + Crazy Love (90M) = Bourne + Bad Moms + Nerve (at least 90M)

 

It will depend on the legs of Dory / Tarzan

 

 

[a2k]

Tuesday will be better than 2011 and Wed worse.

Tuesdays in 2011 http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2011-07-05

[a2k]

4 hours ago, James said:

That would be amazing for it! So it will reach maybe 63-64m going into the weekend. A decent hold (TF3 type) would lead to a 19m second WE and 82-83m. A great one (-40%) would put it at around 23m and 86-87m. I think it will settle somewhere in the middle for around 85m.   

 

IDR was 73m after 2nd Sunday. So going by your calcs TARZAN will be 10-12m ahead after 10-days. IDR looking at O/U 100m, probably just over (@ 100-105m). TARZAN will probably build on it's lead over IDR and extend it to ~20m I guess for 120-125m.

[baumer]

Monday was incredibly strong for most films. Tuesday might see some bigger declines.

[Mojoguy]

FUCK The BFG!

What a failure!

Edited July 6, 2016 by Mojoguy

[Captain Craig]

I enjoyed Tarzan, I'm rooting for it to be at most considered an Underperformer with OS saving it. It stands as a solid one/done film but I'd be game for more with Skaarsgard & Robie back for more. 

[babz06]

6 hours ago, stripe said:

This weekend has been great. I'm feeling we are in a fight for the biggest July ever, beating 2011.

 

We already had a better first long weekend (+40M). And looking at new entries:

 

Zoookeeper + Horrible Bosses (48M) < Pets + Mike (at least 75M)

Obviously, DH2 + Winnie weekend (176M) > Ghostbusters + Infiltrator (at least 60M)

Captain America + Friends (83M) < Ice Age + Star Trek + Lights out (at least 100M)

Cowboys + Smurfs + Crazy Love (90M) = Bourne + Bad Moms + Nerve (at least 90M)

 

It will depend on the legs of Dory / Tarzan

 

 

Its gonna be hard to make up for DH2. Where is that extra 100m going to come from? 

Ghostbusters has to really break out in order to break the record, because right now it's looking like that is going to be the slowest week in July.

 

Edited July 6, 2016 by babz06

[EmpireCity]

My math sucks, but here you go....

 

Dory - $8.3m

Tarzan - $6m

Purge - $4.4m

BFG - $3.5m

[FlashMaster659]

4 minutes ago, nilephelan said:

My math sucks, but here you go....

 

Dory - $8.3m

Tarzan - $6m

Purge - $4.4m

BFG - $3.5m

So a 13.7% drop from Monday for Dory and down 43.4% from last Tuesday. For comparison, Cars 2 dropped 28.6% from Monday and 46.1% from its previous Tuesday.

[Arlborn]

A discount Tuesday decrease for everything then. It seems Monday was very inflated after all! I read last week many people saying Americans didn't go to the movies that much on ID but it seems they do go a bit.

[AniNate]

It did rain the night of the 4th here

[Captain Craig]

1 minute ago, tribefan695 said:

It did rain the night of the 4th here

Lots of rain in Nashville as well. Came in waves from about 3pm through 9pm, off & on.

The wife and I went to Tarzan on 7/4

[narniadis]

People do go to the Cinema a LOT on the 4th when it's a weekday because it's an extra day off for a lot of people. When it falls on the weekend it tends to depress the weekend a tad (but not much.)

 

Tuesday for Nemo is right on track as if it had been a normal Sunday/Monday drop with cheap Tuesday increases.