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abra

Tuesday #s Pets be about 15.1M | FD 3.6M

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Good Tuesday bumps all around. If I'm not mistaken, Pets will either have the third best first Tuesday for an animated movie (if it manages to beat Toy Story 3's $15.1m) or the fourth best. It's definitely taking the record for an original animated movie.

 

I've noticed that, ever since the Discount Tuesday thingy started becoming more and more widespread, there's a good way of determining the longevity of an animated movie in Summer (late June to early August) based on this Tuesday and the Second Friday (very approximate and not immune to other factors obv).

 

If Second Friday = First Tuesday (more or less), then the movie will have good legs (if it' a sequel/part of a franchise) or okay legs (if it's an original).

If Second Friday > First Tuesday (significantly), the movie will have good/great legs.

If Second Friday < First Tuesday (significantly), the movie will have poor/mediocre legs.

 

So I think that Pets needs to have a Friday of at least $15m to beat Zootopia/Minions and significantly above that, to beat Inside Out/Jungle Book/Despicable me 2.

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How much will GB take away from animated films considering a lot of moms will see it (along with everyone else).

Anything that can hit DORY, will hit PETS harder as it's early in it's run, still putting big numbers and has some front-loadeness that Dory has seen off.

Coming ofF OW and previews, Pets imo will fall 50%+.

MINIONS like 57.4% probably won't happen. But 52-54% won't be a surprise.

Edited by a2knet
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6 minutes ago, a2knet said:

How much will GB take away from animated films considering a lot of moms will see it (along with everyone else).

Anything that can hit DORY, will hit PETS harder as it's early in it's run, still putting big numbers and has some front-loadeness that Dory has seen off.

Coming ofF OW and previews, Pets imo will fall 50%+.

MINIONS like 57.4% probably won't happen. But a low 50s drop (51-53%) won't be a surprise.

 

If it's Friday is on par with this Tuesday ($15m) and it has the same IM as Minions then it'll gross $50.6m this weekend which is a 51.5% drop. Being an original movie, I think it can do a bit better and have the same second weekend as Inside out (~52m) which is exactly a 50% dip. That's more or less what I'm seeing it do this weekend. Anything (significantly) more than that would be a sign of great WOM.

Edited by Agafin
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30 minutes ago, Agafin said:

 

If it's Friday is on par with this Tuesday ($15m) and it has the same IM as Minions then it'll gross $50.6m this weekend which is a 51.5% drop. Being an original movie, I think it can do a bit better and have the same second weekend as Inside out (~52m) which is exactly a 50% dip. That's more or less what I'm seeing it do this weekend. Anything (significantly) more than that would be a sign of great WOM.

 

Yeah, I will be happy with 50-52%. 52-54% will be understandable especially if GB is big.

54%+ drop will make much more than 3.0-3.1x (313-323m) difficult (but that dom itself is huge).

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1 hour ago, Agafin said:

Good Tuesday bumps all around. If I'm not mistaken, Pets will either have the third best first Tuesday for an animated movie (if it manages to beat Toy Story 3's $15.1m) or the fourth best. It's definitely taking the record for an original animated movie.

 

It could end up around $14.6M, though. That will be fifth, behind Dory's second Tuesday.

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