Tuesday #s Pets be about 15.1M | FD 3.6M

[Plain Old Tele]

26 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Thinking $500M is out for Dory. BUT, $475M+ is a done deal.

 

[baumer]

FTSBF 

[CJohn]

3 hours ago, a2knet said:

 

2012: #NotARecord

2013: #UpsetForTheAges

[Planodisney]

I was thinking about this today, concerning an animated film hitting 500 million domestic but also passing Frozen WW.

The more you look at it, Frozen 2 is going to be an absolute monstrosity.  Even OS in many of the markets it did ok but not great, like Brazil, it has become so huge after the fact.  1.5 billion is definitely on the table for Frozen 2.

 

[cannastop]

39 minutes ago, miketheavenger said:

I wonder if any animated movie will be able to reach 500m in the near future. The Incredibles 2 might do it or Frozen 2. Zootopia 2 would probably have a shot, too, but that's quite a few years down the line (if it ever happens).

We have no idea until we see marketing and buzz. I think all of those projects have the potential to electrify audiences, but we have to wait.

 

Frozen 2 has a higher potential, though, in my opinion. Justified or not, I would see it as a huge surprise if The Incredibles sequel passed Finding Dory.

 

Spoiler

And it's going to be at least 2022 until Zootopia 2 ffs. Who knows what ticket prices will be then? I can't wait for them to announce its production.

 

[Planodisney]

Yah, no animated film is going to pass Dory domestic for a very long time with the exception that Frozen 2 has a shot.  Close to 500 million is just such a huge domestic total for animation. Just shows you the popularity of the Nemo franchise because Dory, IMHO, isn't even in the same stratosphere as TS3 in terms of quality.

[a2k]

ZOOTP2 would need a 46% bump from ZOOTP1 (assuming 342m final dom) to get 500m.

DM2(368m) jumped 46.6% from DM1 (251m). So ZOOTP2 would need to emulate that.

 

FROZEN2 imo doesn't have a shot at jumping 25% from FROZEN1's 400m to get 500m. I liked FROZEN1 a lot but feel 350m would be a good target for FROZEN2. Have no clue around how they can have sequel around a story like FROZEN1. Doesn't seem very sequel friendly. But great if it manages.

 

Looking at how nicely TS3 was wrapped up as a trilogy, TS4 imo will fall short of TS3's 415m. Looks forced as sequel.

[Talkie]

4 hours ago, DAJK said:

So is Pets going to be Kevin Hart's most successful film after less than 10 days?

 

After this weekend Pets will have grossed more than all the films Louis CK has ever been in combined. 

[Planodisney]

350 for Frozen would be the same domestic gross as IO and only 10 million ahead of Zootopia.  No chance it only gets 350.

It has had such a huge cultural impact.  My 3 year old didn't experience it when it happened, but still has Anna and Elsa crap all over the house.  It's HUGE man!!!!!  Look at the new Ftozen attractions.  4-5 hour waits at EPCOT and you can't even get into the Frozen stage show at DCA unless you get a fast pass first thing in the morning or they are gone for every show of the day.

Edited July 13, 2016 by Planodisney

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, a2knet said:

ZOOTP2 would need a 46% bump from ZOOTP1 (assuming 342m final dom) to get 500m.

DM2(368m) jumped 46.6% from DM1 (251m). So ZOOTP2 would need to emulate that.

 

FROZEN2 imo doesn't have a shot at jumping 25% from FROZEN1's 400m to get 500m. I liked FROZEN1 a lot but feel 350m would be a good target for FROZEN2. Have no clue around how they can have sequel around a story like FROZEN1. Doesn't seem very sequel friendly. But great if it manages.

 

Looking at how nicely TS3 was wrapped up as a trilogy, TS4 imo will fall short of TS3's 415m. Looks forced as sequel.

I'm also wondering about ticket prices. In 2013, the average was $8.13, compared to $7.89 in 2010. That's a difference of 3% over the three years, or an average annual increase of 1%. However, ticket prices have seen a 3.2% increase from 2014 to 2015, which might be a sign of higher inflation in the future.

 

If Zootopia 2 comes out in 2022, and the average annual increase is 2.5%, the average ticket price will be around $10, or about a 16% increase from today's prices. That might help its changes of increasing a bit.

[MovieMan89]

Zootopia 2 will decrease unless inflation is already high enough to give it a small increase. As liked as it is, it just isn't the type of movie that seems like it would have a sequel, and I can't imagine the GA will be waiting for it. And it won't be a long gap like Dory where you can have nostalgia come in. I could absolutely see Zoo2 having a similar drop to Dragon 2, especially since Zootopia played like a bigger OW version of the first HTTYD.

 

Frozen on the other hand draws very big parallels between Shrek 1 and TS1. An original animated cultural phenomenon, that sold a very similar amount of tickets. Everyone has been expecting a sequel for a couple years already. The door is completely open for Frozen 2 to be the Shrek 2/TS2 and sell a buttload of admissions. Only slight downside is the wait will be 2 years longer than TS2. However I think the first is still just as big of a phenomenon with today's toddler girls, and they won't be that old when the second hits. The kids that will be teens when it hits could be old enough for nostalgia to already be a factor as well. Add in 6 years of inflation, and unless WOM sucks Frozen 2 should absolutely hit 500+. 

[cannastop]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Zootopia 2 will decrease unless inflation is already high enough to give it a small increase. As liked as it is, it just isn't the type of movie that seems like it would have a sequel, and I can't imagine the GA will be waiting for it. And it won't be a long gap like Dory where you can have nostalgia come in. I could absolutely see Zoo2 having a similar drop to Dragon 2, especially since Zootopia played like a bigger OW version of the first HTTYD.

 

Frozen on the other hand draws very big parallels between Shrek 1 and TS1. An original animated cultural phenomenon, that sold a very similar amount of tickets. Everyone has been expecting a sequel for a couple years already. The door is completely open for Frozen 2 to be the Shrek 2/TS2 and sell a buttload of admissions. Only slight downside is the wait will be 2 years longer than TS2. However I think the first is still just as big of a phenomenon with today's toddler girls, and they won't be that old when the second hits. The kids that will be teens when it hits could be old enough for nostalgia to already be a factor as well. Add in 6 years of inflation, and unless WOM sucks Frozen 2 should absolutely hit 500+. 

I think it's just your personal opinion on the "sequalbility" of Zootopia. Many many reviewers have said that the world of Zootopia is an ideal framework for the franchise.

As for the HTTYD2 comparison. That I can see. However, Zootopia is part of the Disney brand, which is very valuable and trusted by the general audience. They can find a way to keep in in everyone's mind.

 

And $500m is simply not guaranteed for any movie. Except maybe Star Wars.

Edited July 13, 2016 by cannastop

[grim22]

Tarzan and Central Intelligence with the best week-on-week holds

 

TD	YD	Title (Click to View)	Studio	Daily Gross	% +/- YD / LW		Theaters / Avg		Gross To-Date	Day
1	1	The Secret Life of Pets	Uni.	$15,105,025	+29%	-	4,370	$3,457	$131,128,175	5
2	2	Finding Dory	BV	$3,557,130	+36%	-57%	3,871	$919	$429,222,218	26
3	3	The Legend of Tarzan	WB	$3,247,957	+31%	-46%	3,591	$904	$87,524,558	12
4	4	Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates	Fox	$2,267,837	+27%	-	2,982	$761	$20,686,125	5
5	5	The Purge: Election Year	Uni.	$1,877,045	+16%	-57%	2,821	$665	$62,297,290	12
6	6	The BFG	BV	$1,461,910	+43%	-57%	3,392	$431	$41,428,383	12
7	7	Central Intelligence	WB (NL)	$1,190,083	+26%	-43%	2,841	$419	$110,366,810	26
8	8	Independence Day: Resurgence	Fox	$1,084,969	+25%	-57%	3,061	$354	$93,530,214	19
9	9	The Shallows	Sony	$781,152	+17%	-55%	2,406	$325	$47,276,405	19
10	11	Sultan	Yash	$345,000	+64%	-	283	$1,219	$3,938,329	7
11	10	The Conjuring 2	WB (NL)	$264,093	+9%	-61%	1,052	$251	$99,847,047	33
12	12	Now You See Me 2	LG/S	$225,795	+26%	-60%	864	$261	$62,554,756	33
-	-	Free State of Jones	STX	$198,564	+19%	-69%	1,264	$157	$19,652,314	19
-	-	Swiss Army Man	A24	$112,030	+9%	-53%	600	$187	$3,328,728	19
-	-	Me Before You	WB (NL)	$83,430	+26%	-55%	318	$262	$54,951,927	40
-	-	X-Men: Apocalypse	Fox	$62,863	+20%	-61%	288	$218	$154,615,193	47
-	-	Warcraft	Uni.	$61,015	+14%	-35%	228	$268	$46,671,870	33
-	-	The Jungle Book (2016)	BV	$48,001	+17%	-55%	197	$244	$360,252,209	89
-	-	Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows	Par.	$47,670	+13%	-70%	293	$163	$80,494,389	40
-	-	Captain America: Civil War	BV	$45,003	+10%	-66%	238	$189	$406,312,371	68
-	-	Alice Through the Looking Glass	BV	$40,251	+29%	-35%	145	$278	$76,194,177	47

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, cannastop said:

I think it's just your personal opinion on the "sequalbility" of Zootopia. Many many reviewers have said that the world of Zootopia is an ideal framework for the franchise.

As for the HTTYD2 comparison. That I can see. However, Zootopia is part of the Disney brand, which is very valuable and trusted by the general audience. They can find a way to keep in in everyone's mind.

 

And $500m is simply not guaranteed for any movie. Except maybe Star Wars.

The framework might be there, but I still hold it's simply not a movie any of the GA saw and expected a sequel in a few years. And I think the exact same thing is what happened with Dragon 2 (and KFP2). An admissions decrease at least seems inevitable. 

[Johnny Tran]

the difference between Pets and Dory (which, I have no issues with either) and a CBM are obviously that pretty much everyone who buys tickets to a CBM is there to see it while with animated features it's more likely that the parent does not care to be there but they can't just drop off their two 11-year olds so instead of 2 people buying tickets, it's now 4.

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

The framework might be there, but I still hold it's simply not a movie any of the GA saw and expected a sequel in a few years. And I think the exact same thing is what happened with Dragon 2 (and KFP2). An admissions decrease at least seems inevitable. 

Uh, wut? "Expected a sequel in a few years"? Did people expect a Frozen sequel in 2013? Come on now.

[La Binoche]

Dory will hit 500 

[MovieMan89]

21 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Uh, wut? "Expected a sequel in a few years"? Did people expect a Frozen sequel in 2013? Come on now.

Yes, actually. It was a cultural phenomenon. Those don't happen in this day and age and Hollywood not make a sequel. People knew one was coming by early 2014. Zootopia was a big box office hit, but not the kind that permeated pop culture and again it just doesn't seem like the kind of movie that would have a sequel anymore than Nemo did. And Zoo2 isn't a good comparison with Dory for many reasons. If Nemo 2 had hit a few years after Nemo I bet it would have decreased (I mean technically it still will admissions-wise). 

Edited July 13, 2016 by MovieMan89

[vc2002]

3 hours ago, Baumer said:

FTSBF 

 

OK what does this B stand for?

[RyneOh1040]

Finally saw The Conjuring 2 today fucked me up real good.