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BOT User Tracking 8/5-7 Nine Lives, Suicide Squad

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Three weeks (well, maybe 3.5) weeks of summer to go, but I sadly fear its going to be downhill from here. That having been said, I've been looking forward to this week for quite a while. 


Its funny, normally I list the movies alphabetically because I don't want to suggest I think there's a particular order in which the movies will rank. Which is silly, because *of course* I have expectations for how the movies will do. But I don't want to accidentally bias people's predicts. Normally, its not a particularly big deal. But this weekend, I want to make it clear that Nine Lives outgrossing Suicide Squad would be an upset of Biblical proportions. Not David vs Goliath, though. Seriously, why do people consider that an upset? If that fight happened 100 times, David would win it 95+% of the time. Read Gladwell's "David and Goliath".


Please provide your 8/5-7 Opening Weekend predicts for, 

Nine Lives

Suicide Squad


Deadline this week will be Thursday afternoon (US Eastern time), whenever I get to it. Note that we will be using our median predict rather than our mean predict going forward.

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Going quick as I try to get caught back up before again heading out of town for the week. In a nutshell, we were about in the middle on Nine Lives and slightly optimistic on Suicide Squad.


As usual, I totaled all predicts (18 for Nine Lives, 21 for Suicide Squad) and here are the results: 


Nine Lives

Mean: 8.4M

Median: 7.9M

StnDev: 3.35M (revised StnDev: 3.1M)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 42.35%

High: 20M

Low: 5.7M


BO.com 6.5M

Deadline 9.5M

MovieWeb 13.1M

ShowBuzzDaily 7.5M

Variety 9M


Suicide Squad

Mean: 137.8M

Median: 137.6M

StnDev: 17.12M (revised StnDev: 15.51)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 12.44%

High: 190M

Low: 105M


BO.com 133M 

Deadline 140M

MovieWeb 145.6M

ShowBuzzDaily 130.5M

Variety 132.5M


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Nine Lives

Prediction: 7.9M +/- 3.35M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 6.249M (off by 1.7M, so 0.49 stndev)

A good predict. Wasn't really terrific in percentage terms but a nice big StvDev made it a winner for us. We were roughly in the middle compared to other sites. Our best predict was James at 6M, barely beating a couple people at 6.5M.


Suicide Squad

Prediction: 137.6M +/- 17.12M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 133.682M (off by 3.9M, so 0.23 stndev)

Another good predict. Everyone else pretty much everyone nailed it, too, but it was still a winner in my book. Our best predict was Blankments and his enthusiastic decimal places at 133.836M.

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