Weekend Actuals: Don't breathe 26.4M, Squad 12.25M, Kubo 7.85M., Sausage 7.5M, Mechanic 7.5M, Dragon 7.4M, War Dogs 7M

[Brainiac5]

3 hours ago, John Marston said:

10). Ben-Hur (PAR/MGM), 3,084 theaters  / $1.38M Fri. (-66%)/  3-day cume: $4.7M (-58%) /Total: $19.7M/ Wk 2

Poor Ben-Hur.

[Brainiac5]

2 hours ago, a2knet said:

I don't think SS can go as high as 11.6 with 3.2 Friday, but 11 is almost a certainty which is a solid result.

Puts it on track for 295 by LD Monday and gives it a great shot at going over 310.

 

3.2 + 4.8 (+50%) + 3.0 (-37.5%) = 11.0

37.5 Sunday drop is harsh and could do a bit better on both Sat and Sun, for 11-11.5 imo.

 

11.23 will give SS 282.0 cume.

4.2 (1.05+1.3+0.9+0.95) over Mon-Thu and 9.3 (-17%) over the 4-day weekend will give it

282 + 4.2 + 9.3 = 295.5

I guess my 315 prediction wasn't out of reach after all.

Edited August 27, 2016 by Brainiac5

[Brainiac5]

4 hours ago, NuTella Lover of Sky Beams said:

I think WB would be happy with 20m or so for SULLY's OW.

What's the budget for that one?

[a2k]

So 7.3 weekend takes PETE'S DRAGON to 54.7 dom

It should grow over the coming 4-day weekend. 

3 Mon-Thu + 8 Fri-Mon = 65.5-66 cume

Should do 75-80 dom on a 65 budget.

Will be fun if it crosses ALICE2's 77 dom.

 

KUBO has a similar weekend and should have a similar trend, which will take it to 45-50 dom in the end on a 60 budget.

Edited August 27, 2016 by a2knet

[a2k]

7 minutes ago, Brainiac5 said:

I guess my 315 prediction wasn't put of reach after all.

No it wasn't after all. SS will probably end up closer to 315 than 305.

Edited August 27, 2016 by a2knet

[ttr]

So 7.3 weekend takes PETE'S DRAGON to 54.7 dom

It should grow over the coming 4-day weekend. 

3 Mon-Thu + 8 Fri-Mon = 65.5-66 cume

Should do 75-80 dom on a 65 budget.

Will be fun if it crosses ALICE2's 77 dom.

 

KUBO has a similar weekend and should have a similar trend, which will take it to 45-50 dom in the end on a 60 budget.

IMO 7.3 million sounds good, is that reliable estimation? Hopefully Pete will perform well coming weeks, I was a bit disappointed with the opening.

[Brainiac5]

58 minutes ago, a2knet said:

No it wasn't after all. SS will probably end up closer to 315 than 305.

Now I'm hoping for that 385 foreign.

Which seems to be where it's heading.

[The Dark Alfred]

Really nice for SS. Matching Bourne Ultimatum. The quest for 320m is on.

[a2k]

59 minutes ago, ttr said:

IMO 7.3 million sounds good, is that reliable estimation? Hopefully Pete will perform well coming weeks, I was a bit disappointed with the opening.

I just used deadline's weekend estimate.

They say friday for PD is 1.8m. If that number holds than 7.3 seems a bit optimistic imo.

1.8 + 3 (67%) + 1.9 (-36.7%) = 6.7

Would still leave it on track for 70-75 if not more.

Edited August 27, 2016 by a2knet

[ttr]

I just used deadline's weekend estimate.

They say friday for PD is 1.8m. If that number holds than 7.3 seems a bit optimistic imo.

1.8 + 3 (67%) + 1.9 (-36.7%) = 6.7

Would still leave it on track for 70-75 if not more.

Ok, thanks. But according to some contributors, deadline's numbers are not to be trusted. So I fear that weekend number will be 6 million. Pessimistic me [emoji4]

[alisson23]

7 hours ago, filmlover said:

I can't understand people who bring their kids to horror movies.

8). Bad Moms (STX), 2,565 theaters (-246)/ $1.75M Fri. (-32%)/ 3-day cume: $5.6M (-29%)/Total cume: $95M/ Wk 5

[a2k]

12 minutes ago, ttr said:

Ok, thanks. But according to some contributors, deadline's numbers are not to be trusted. So I fear that weekend number will be 6 million. Pessimistic me

I don't think it will go that low. A movie in PD's genre should not have a problem doing +100% on Friday at this time of the year considering SS did +85-90%.

PD was 900k+ on Thursday so Deadline's 1.8m Friday make sense. It's Sat should be +60% at least and Sunday should be 40% drop or less.

So can't see below 6.5m over the weekend.

[Krissykins]

Now that I've seen Bad Moms, I understand these great holds. 

[CJohn]

Sausage Party ain't getting to 100M like this.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

Sausage Party ain't getting to 100M like this.

Waiting for some people to argue that word-of-mouth isn't good since comedies are supposed to have good legs.

[CJohn]

Just now, filmlover said:

Waiting for some people to argue that word-of-mouth isn't good since comedies are supposed to have good legs.

CinemaScore was pretty shitty. WOM is fine, but it is not great by any means. 

[a2k]

6 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Sausage Party ain't getting to 100M like this.

 

Yeah, if it's at 80 after this weekend of 7m, then it could do 9-10 more by LD Monday for 89-90 after a 6m 4-day I guess.

Will get close though 100 is still alive.

Edited August 27, 2016 by a2knet

[miketheavenger]

Sausage Party already outperformed most expectations and is gonna be a solid moneymaker for Sony. Also Suicide Squad (not using the abbreviation for historical reasons) looks pretty much locked to beat ID4 to become Will Smith's biggest film domestic.

[goldenstate5]

8 hours ago, NuTella Lover of Sky Beams said:

 

Don't all casinos have a 21+ policy on the floor? I remember because last time I was in Vegas I had Tele Jr with me and (obviously) I started noticing those signs.  (To be fair to me, I was just crossing through the casino with him.)

 

As long as the state deems so (Nevada does and I'm not sure of any state that doesn't), then yeah kids should not hang in casino floors. In Vegas they have designated pathways, although a child can walk thru with a designated guardian.

[Mockingjay Raphael]

8 hours ago, filmlover said:

B+ is much higher than usual for a horror movie.

 

B+ is like an A+ for a horror movie, lol. This is going to have a 3.0x multiple, I'm sure.

 

7 hours ago, Rman823 said:

I'm a huge Evil Dead fan and I didn't find it as sacrilege. The trailers definitely sold to me that it wasn't some generic cash grab remake or something that was an abomination to the original (Rob Zombie's Halloween). Plus I have it in my head cannon that it's actually a sequel. 

 

I know that it is an unpopular opinion, but I think that the Evil Dead remake is better than the original.