DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE | 07.26.2024 | Disney | latest trailer on page 76

[Joyous Legion]

I mean, it is still pretty hurt by all the poorly received movies recently, and it might not even beat Gotg3 by 20% DOM so I dunno about “absolutely demolish”

[HummingLemon496]

3 minutes ago, Legion Again said:

I mean, it is still pretty hurt by all the poorly received movies recently, and it might not even beat Gotg3 by 20% DOM so I dunno about “absolutely demolish”

Opening to $180M on the high end compared to GOTG 3's $118M IS demolishing. Guardians 3 doing poorly deluded my dumbass into thinking DPW would do poorly. 

Edited May 20 by HummingLemon496

[thajdikt]

I think the hurt that those other movies has done is that we’re now living in a basis by basis for MCU movies. People won’t automatically come out and be interested as the trust in the brand quality has diminished. A movie like this was going to stand above for many obvious reasons, even though I’m surprised sales were so strong today. But I think when we come to Feb it’s a new case for Cap 4. People won’t automatically go to that even if they end up loving this one. That is the real damage imo. They really have to earn those butts in the seats through quality, or some hooks like this one has

[Joyous Legion]

9 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Opening to $180M on the high end compared to GOTG 3's $118M IS demolishing. Guardians 3 doing poorly deluded my dumbass into thinking DPW would do poorly. 

You realize a movie’s performance is determined by the DOM total not the ow right? Gotg3 did better than Thor and this won’t match Gotg3 legs so it’s unclear whether it’ll actually do much better in the end. Could still easily end up like B+ -> 145->340 or something — that start is under Thor, so...

 

Or maybe it will get a high A and do like 190-> 500. 

 

DPW is doing poorly compared to its potential if the franchise wasn’t in shambles, just like gotg3 did. Not sure which will be more impacted tbh. Was never going to do poorly in an absolute sense 🤷‍♂️

[HummingLemon496]

1 minute ago, Legion Again said:

You realize a movie’s performance is determined by the DOM total not the ow right? Gotg3 did better than Thor and this won’t match Gotg3 legs so it’s unclear whether it’ll actually do much better in the end. Could still easily end up like B+ -> 145->340 or something — that start is under Thor, so...

 

Or maybe it will get a high A and do like 190-> 500. 

 

DPW is doing poorly compared to its potential if the franchise wasn’t in shambles, just like gotg3 did. Not sure which will be more impacted tbh. Was never going to do poorly in an absolute sense 🤷‍♂️

Can you explain to me this distinction between an A and a high A? Like can you give me some examples of MCU normal A's and MCU high A's? And how can you tell the difference? Just wondering because I genuinely want this movie to blow the fuck up, I damn hope it's a high A and we can fill the gap between A1 and A2

[fabiopazzo2]

This movie always been an event

movie so im expecting something more than 150M OW

 

(like Joker 2)

Edited May 20 by fabiopazzo2

[AniNate]

This is the last major blockbuster of the summer, so I don't necessarily think a 3x multiplier is completely out of the question. Deadpool 2's legs were hampered by Solo opening the following weekend (even though it was a flop it still opened to $84 mil). Does depend on the movie delivering on all fronts, but I can definitely see it becoming the "thing" everyone watches through August just as something to kill time.

 

 

Edited May 20 by AniNate

[Mad Max007]

Tickets selling out fast already.

[Joyous Legion]

2 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Can you explain to me this distinction between an A and a high A? Like can you give me some examples of MCU normal A's and MCU high A's? And how can you tell the difference? Just wondering because I genuinely want this movie to blow the fuck up, I damn hope it's a high A and we can fill the gap between A1 and A2

Eh, I mean, it’s kind of splitting hairs. But when you look at other metrics of reception (including legs!) clearly not all As are created equal. Movies like IM1, TWS, Gotg1, thor3, IW, SC, and gotg3 got pretty glowing reception and legged good-great. I would not say they were all riding the border of + or anything (it’s very hard to get the +!) but good reason to believe they were in the top half of As if you could take a peak behind the scenes. Then you have some other As like IM2/3, AoU, AM1, DS1, CM, FFH whatever which clearly were received well compared to a lot of the multiverse saga stinkers but not with the same degree of excitement or ratio of loved:disliked. 

[fabiopazzo2]

6 minutes ago, Mad Max007 said:

Tickets selling out fast already.

Shock 😂

 

First event Marvel movie since NwH. 
 

 

[junkshop36]

I can see it being the first movie to hit 200m OW and not do 600 DOM. 
 

Maybe 205/540. Something like that. 🤷🏻‍♂️

[TheFlatLannister]

I really don't think Deadpool is hitting $200M OW, maybe in 2022.

 

My ceiling would be $180M

[Jay Beezy]

1 hour ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Seeing these early sales, I gotta say, I was completely wrong about my doom and glooming about this movie. And I'm so glad that's the case. Looks like DS2/T4/AM3 aren't gonna hurt this like I anticipated. 

 

Are ticket buyers viewing this as an MCU movie first and foremost or a movie featuring Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool with Hugh Jackman as Wolverine riding shotgun first and foremost?

[JimmyB]

Thor Love and Thunder opened to 144m and finished its run at 343m.  I can see DP doing similar numbers.  I don't know why DP wont be frontloaded like the majority of MCU movies.  The fanbase buys tickets early, comes out during the opening weekend full force and disappears quickly.

[thajdikt]

6 minutes ago, JimmyB said:

Thor Love and Thunder opened to 144m and finished its run at 343m.  I can see DP doing similar numbers.  I don't know why DP wont be frontloaded like the majority of MCU movies.  The fanbase buys tickets early, comes out during the opening weekend full force and disappears quickly.

Thor Love and Thunder had awful WOM. I don´t know why people leave that part out when discussing bad legs from MCU movies. Most MCU movies that has good reception also have good legs. DP doing similar numbers like that would be from bad WOM, not a pattern of behavior that´s normal. Vol 3 had great legs, WF had good legs etc. 

[dudalb]

6 hours ago, WorkingonaName said:

Post-conver 3D looks like piss.

That is the problem.  A lot of the conversions to 3d Did not work so well.

[dudalb]

I can't see any film reraching 200 M  OW with today's reduced ticket buying audience. 160 170 is the best they can realsiticall hope for.

As for the previous MCU duds hurting his,  they did not seem to hurt GOTG 3 very much.

Just like a long string of DC Failures did not hurt "The Batman" very much.

[Jay Beezy]

4 minutes ago, dudalb said:

I can't see any film reraching 200 M  OW with today's reduced ticket buying audience. 160 170 is the best they can realsiticall hope for.

As for the previous MCU duds hurting his,  they did not seem to hurt GOTG 3 very much.

Just like a long string of DC Failures did not hurt "The Batman" very much.

And what’s going to influence decisions to buy tickets more? Previous MCU films or previous Deadpool films which were not MCU?

[dudalb]

22 minutes ago, Jay Beezy said:

And what’s going to influence decisions to buy tickets more? Previous MCU films or previous Deadpool films which were not MCU?

And the populairty of Wolvie as a charecter.

This will stand or fall on it's own merits.

[Blaze Heatnix]

People are hyped for this movie because it's a Deadpool and Wolverine movie. People aren't hyped/excited because it's a MCU movie.

 

I hope some people get that. This movie is gonna be its own thing, just like GOTG 3. Previous MCU movies won't damage this one, or at least, not that much.

 

It's the first time Deadpool and Wolverine share the screen together. This could have been a Fox movie and obviously the hype would still be insanely high. Being a MCU movie is just a secondary factor. 

 

Opening numbers will be damn high. It'll be compared to previous Deadpool and Wolverine movies. This one is obviously much more expensive, so making less than Deadpool movies, isn't a good thing at all. That being said, this is gonna make a huge ammount of money. 

 

Hopefully Disney/Marvel won't take the wrong lesson from this, only to get desperate if Captain America 4 flops and gets a B CinemaScore.